7/28 (SAR): Lake George S. (G2)

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

There is a horse in here, WHO CANT LOSE. She will not be defeated.

Ummmm. . .

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm not really a fan of his at all. . . and you're basically proving my point. It's highly unlikely that she'll be better this year - and she probably wasn't that good last year. What McPeek does with 3yo+ is equally as irrelevant in this case, isn't it?

What McPeek does with older horses sort of gives you a snapshot of where she was likely headed had she stayed in his barn. I think Godolphin's operation, with all of their flaws, is a clear upgrade over McPeek.

It remains to be seen with her but given how horribly Godolphin has done at the Belmont spring-summer meet over the last two years, and how well they did at Saratoga in 2009, there's reason to believe she'll bounce back in here. Whether she was ever any good is also a question that we'll likely get an answer to on Wednesday.

My thought on her all in all is that her effort last time out gives no indication whatsoever of her ability. She should fare better in an honestly run race but is far from a lock in what looks like a contentious field.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Ummmm. . .

LOL, you know I get excited sometimes. Im betting her to win at anything higher then 7-2.

[Danzig]

i liked caminadora in her last, and see no reason she can't pull this one off. should be pace for her to close into..
also don't trust house of grace off one start this year, first of july at a mile- third in a field of three.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i liked caminadora in her last, and see no reason she can't pull this one off. should be pace for her to close into..
also don't trust house of grace off one start this year, first of july at a mile- third in a field of three.

I can see knocking HOG at 3-1 ML, but shes 8-1. Even if she gets bet, I cant see her going under 4-1. I think with Ramon from the rail, shes an ok play.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i liked caminadora in her last, and see no reason she can't pull this one off. should be pace for her to close into..
also don't trust house of grace off one start this year, first of july at a mile- third in a field of three.

There are a number of reasons that everyone betting the Lake George should watch the replay of the Regret.

#1 - To see why Julien Leparoux is a vastly superior turf rider to Jose Lezcano, who fought with Queen of the Creek during the first 5 furlongs of that race. Leparoux rode her to perfection this afternoon.

#2 - To see how dreadful Albarado's ride on Dynazaper was. There was absolutely no reason to tackle Go Ask Alex with 5/16ths to go. Of course, then he thinks he's done just inside the eighth pole so he basically stands up before realizing that he might be able to pick up a check, so he flags her a few times with the whip. Leparoux getting back on her is a colossally important rider change.

During all of this, one horse capitalized on the multiple moves that were made into the pacesetter, and that was Caminadora. Could she run well again? Perhaps, but the whole wedding-funeral racing adage is definitely applicable.

NT

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I can see knocking HOG at 3-1 ML, but shes 8-1. Even if she gets bet, I cant see her going under 4-1. I think with Ramon from the rail, shes an ok play.

4-1 on her in that field is a terrible, terrible play.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There are a number of reasons that everyone betting the Lake George should watch the replay of the Regret.

#1 - To see why Julien Leparoux is a vastly superior turf rider to Jose Lezcano, who fought with Queen of the Creek during the first 5 furlongs of that race. Leparoux rode her to perfection this afternoon.

#2 - To see how dreadful Albarado's ride on Dynazaper was. There was absolutely no reason to tackle Go Ask Alex with 5/16ths to go. Of course, then he thinks he's done just inside the eighth pole so he basically stands up before realizing that he might be able to pick up a check, so he flags her a few times with the whip. Leparoux getting back on her is a colossally important rider change.

During all of this, one horse capitalized on the multiple moves that were made into the pacesetter, and that was Caminadora. Could she run well again? Perhaps, but the whole wedding-funeral racing adage is definitely applicable.

NT

Nick are you saying that there's one horse who you can guarantee won't win the Lake George who'll be under 10-1, and that horse is Caminadora? Is this what your saying?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

4-1 on her in that field is a terrible, terrible play.

4-1 at worse and I disagree. Like you said this stable is always crushed. When she wins for fun, we will never even get 2-1. I dont get how her last is not a perfect prep, the Jerkens had EVERYTHING her own way. There is real pace in here, and why is it far fetched to say she needed a race? I understand she should outfinish Hot Trip, but she ran hard just to get into contention, no?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There are a number of reasons that everyone betting the Lake George should watch the replay of the Regret.

#1 - To see why Julien Leparoux is a vastly superior turf rider to Jose Lezcano, who fought with Queen of the Creek during the first 5 furlongs of that race. Leparoux rode her to perfection this afternoon.

#2 - To see how dreadful Albarado's ride on Dynazaper was. There was absolutely no reason to tackle Go Ask Alex with 5/16ths to go. Of course, then he thinks he's done just inside the eighth pole so he basically stands up before realizing that he might be able to pick up a check, so he flags her a few times with the whip. Leparoux getting back on her is a colossally important rider change.

During all of this, one horse capitalized on the multiple moves that were made into the pacesetter, and that was Caminadora. Could she run well again? Perhaps, but the whole wedding-funeral racing adage is definitely applicable.

NT

dynazaper is the other who caught my eye. i'll definitely watch a replay a few times.

also, how's the weather? will it be firm for the race?

and it just seems an argument could be made for many here, so it may be a good time to try to hit at longer odds.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

dynazaper is the other who caught my eye. i'll definitely watch a replay a few times.

also, how's the weather? will it be firm for the race?

and it just seems an argument could be made for many here, so it may be a good time to try to hit at longer odds.

Danzig... THe weather is great up here, supposed to be perfect the next 5-7 days. Look for fast/firm.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

4-1 at worse and I disagree. Like you said this stable is always crushed. When she wins for fun, we will never even get 2-1. I dont get how her last is not a perfect prep, the Jerkens had EVERYTHING her own way. There is real pace in here, and why is it far fetched to say she needed a race? I understand she should outfinish Hot Trip, but she ran hard just to get into contention, no?

I can't discuss this race anymore because we'll just keep going back and forth, but I'm not sure how her subsequent odds in future races come into play here. Based on the current facts and what is at our disposal as handicappers - her "fair" odds in this spot are much higher than 4-1 or whatever she'll go off at. I think if you rethought that statement you'd take it back. . . it's just silly. I'm in no rush to take 4-1 based solely on conjecture and the hopes that she may be as good or better than she was last year when there's every chance that she was a different horse then and an even better chance that she was dressed up. It's a full field with quite a few proven commodities who have done it recently. Why take a short(er) price on a relative unknown? If she was going to be 15-1 it'd be a different story. I also don't buy any evaluation of her last from a trip standpoint that gives her a reason to run better here. If you want to say she needed the race that's fine. The outfit wins at 29% off the lay-off, but the spot they put her in probably points to her needing one. With that being said, however, the minute she came to even terms with those other two she should've blown by them if she was 75% of what some think she was last year (with the proper maturation obviously). It's not like Granted Tiger just went to the lead and got so far in front that she couldn't be caught. The other two came to her and she stiff-armed them. . . and then she lost by 18 1/2.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I can't discuss this race anymore because we'll just keep going back and forth, but I'm not sure how her subsequent odds in future races come into play here. Based on the current facts and what is at our disposal as handicappers - her "fair" odds in this spot are much higher than 4-1 or whatever she'll go off at. I think if you rethought that statement you'd take it back. . . it's just silly. I'm in no rush to take 4-1 based solely on conjecture and the hopes that she may be as good or better than she was last year when there's every chance that she was a different horse then and an even better chance that she was dressed up. It's a full field with quite a few proven commodities who have done it recently. Why take a short(er) price on a relative unknown? If she was going to be 15-1 it'd be a different story. I also don't buy any evaluation of her last from a trip standpoint that gives her a reason to run better here. If you want to say she needed the race that's fine. The outfit wins at 29% off the lay-off, but the spot they put her in probably points to her needing one. With that being said, however, the minute she came to even terms with those other two she should've blown by them if she was 75% of what some think she was last year (with the proper maturation obviously). It's not like Granted Tiger just went to the lead and got so far in front that she couldn't be caught. The other two came to her and she stiff-armed them. . . and then she lost by 18 1/2.

18 1/2?? WTF? 3 1/2

She is the only horse who ran a step against the pace in that BC race, only horse who made up any ground, I believe there is a ton of talent here.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I can't discuss this race anymore because we'll just keep going back and forth, but I'm not sure how her subsequent odds in future races come into play here. Based on the current facts and what is at our disposal as handicappers - her "fair" odds in this spot are much higher than 4-1 or whatever she'll go off at. I think if you rethought that statement you'd take it back. . . it's just silly. I'm in no rush to take 4-1 based solely on conjecture and the hopes that she may be as good or better than she was last year when there's every chance that she was a different horse then and an even better chance that she was dressed up. It's a full field with quite a few proven commodities who have done it recently. Why take a short(er) price on a relative unknown? If she was going to be 15-1 it'd be a different story. I also don't buy any evaluation of her last from a trip standpoint that gives her a reason to run better here. If you want to say she needed the race that's fine. The outfit wins at 29% off the lay-off, but the spot they put her in probably points to her needing one. With that being said, however, the minute she came to even terms with those other two she should've blown by them if she was 75% of what some think she was last year (with the proper maturation obviously). It's not like Granted Tiger just went to the lead and got so far in front that she couldn't be caught. The other two came to her and she stiff-armed them. . . and then she lost by 18 1/2.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

18 1/2?? WTF? 3 1/2.

Granted Tiger. . . I was saying it half tongue-in-cheek.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Granted Tiger. . . I was saying it half tongue-in-cheek.

The stable has not been the same of late bringing horses back, this was the spot they wanted to win. PERFECT PREP.
Let me ask you something, and try to be serious. If she did not return in that Allowance, and was coming into this off the BC run, what would her fair odds be then?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The stable has not been the same of late bringing horses back, this was the spot they wanted to win. PERFECT PREP.
Let me ask you something, and try to be serious. If she did not return in that Allowance, and was coming into this off the BC run, what would her fair odds be then?

That's a very good theoretical question. . . I'm proud of you. 12-1 maybe.
But from a practical standpoint - who cares?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There are a number of reasons that everyone betting the Lake George should watch the replay of the Regret.

#1 - To see why Julien Leparoux is a vastly superior turf rider to Jose Lezcano, who fought with Queen of the Creek during the first 5 furlongs of that race. Leparoux rode her to perfection this afternoon.

#2 - To see how dreadful Albarado's ride on Dynazaper was. There was absolutely no reason to tackle Go Ask Alex with 5/16ths to go. Of course, then he thinks he's done just inside the eighth pole so he basically stands up before realizing that he might be able to pick up a check, so he flags her a few times with the whip. Leparoux getting back on her is a colossally important rider change.

During all of this, one horse capitalized on the multiple moves that were made into the pacesetter, and that was Caminadora. Could she run well again? Perhaps, but the whole wedding-funeral racing adage is definitely applicable.

NT

Vastly superior? That's a little strong, don't you think Nick?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by GPK

Vastly superior? That's a little strong, don't you think Nick?

Kev-

I like Lezcano but I feel like the difference between the two of them is consistency. Leparoux is generally always going to do what will work for a turf horse. Lezcano is a bit more inconsistent and one of his serious issues is with getting horses to relax, something Leparoux excels at. It's not that I think Lezcano is bad and Leparoux good, I think Lezcano is good and Leparoux is excellent.

Lezcano needs to take tomorrow and relax and get a deep breath because the first four days looked a lot like his entire 2009 Saratoga.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Kev-

I like Lezcano but I feel like the difference between the two of them is consistency. Leparoux is generally always going to do what will work for a turf horse. Lezcano is a bit more inconsistent and one of his serious issues is with getting horses to relax, something Leparoux excels at. It's not that I think Lezcano is bad and Leparoux good, I think Lezcano is good and Leparoux is excellent.

Lezcano needs to take tomorrow and relax and get a deep breath because the first four days looked a lot like his entire 2009 Saratoga.

NT

IMO Lezcano is very good, but he tends to struggle in big spots. Very good is nice though. Leparoux is young and already one of the best, he is easily top 5 in the US, and one could argue top 3.