10/8 (KEE): Phoenix S. (G3), Darley Alcibiades S. (G1)

[LARHAGE]

I haven't heard of 80% of the horses in any of these races, such is the state of racing today, I won't even watch these races, I have vacuming to do.

[ateamstupid]

The Phoenix is actually really solid for a G3. Obviously the Alcibiades needs to be downgraded, but a good opening day card put together by Keeneland.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

15-1ish maybe? I figure Wickedly Perfect will be around 3/2, 8/5 and Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y, and Wonderlandbynight all around 4-1, 5-1. Forest Legend probably will be 30-1, 40-1. Harlan's Ruby will be overbet because it's McPeek/Leparoux. Have not seen the TG's yet though which could move the numbers around some.

I'm sorry, you think Dos Lunas will be around 15:1?

I'm confused...right? She looks around 7:2 or less to me.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry, you think Dos Lunas will be around 15:1?

I'm confused...right? She looks around 7:2 or less to me.

I think she will be the 5th choice behind Wickedly Perfect, Wonderlandbynight, Jordy Y, and Harlan's Ruby. If all of those horses are 4-1, 5-1 or less she almost has to be 10-1 or higher by default. Really depends on how much money Wickedly Perfect takes- if she's a tepid 3-1 favorite then she will be closer to 8-1, if she is heavily bet like I think she might be, Dos Lunas will be closer to 15-1.

7/2 would be really surprising to me, honestly.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think she will be the 5th choice behind Wickedly Perfect, Wonderlandbynight, Jordy Y, and Harlan's Ruby. If all of those horses are 4-1, 5-1 or less she almost has to be 10-1 or higher by default. Really depends on how much money Wickedly Perfect takes- if she's a tepid 3-1 favorite then she will be closer to 8-1, if she is heavily bet like I think she might be, Dos Lunas will be closer to 15-1.

7/2 would be really surprising to me, honestly.

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

Well, he may well be right about her being the 5th choice on the board come post time, but it seems to me that this is the sort of race where the 5th choice might be 9/2 while the favorite is 5/2.

All I know for sure here is that I wouldn't want the Catalano.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She is 5:1 ML.

I don't know how you think she can be that price. It doesn't seem even remotely possible.

I could very well be wrong and she could go off around there, especially if my guess on the McPeek taking a lot of money is wrong. But if you want to analyze it off the ML- if the morning lines are correct on the other horses in the race... she would be 11-1.

Originally Posted by philcski

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

I like Dos Lunas as well but only at 8-1 or greater.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I like Dos Lunas as well but only at 8-1 or greater.

I'm only betting Goldikova in the BC Mile if she's over 17:1. Maybe 15....but I want 17:1.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm only betting Goldikova in the BC Mile if she's over 17:1. Maybe 15....but I want 17:1.

Yeah I'm that far off.

*canned laughter*

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Yeah I'm that far off.

*canned laughter*

No, you're not....but she can't be 8:1.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, you're not....but she can't be 8:1.

Yeah it's reaching. Maybe if there were 2 more horses in the race.

[Mike]

I'll pass the Alcibiades.
In the Phoenix, I'll side with the longshot, Super Robusto

High Quality in the 7th

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, you're not....but she can't be 8:1.

Too bad she was.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by philcski

To be fair, you weren't exactly close with her odds. First you thought she would be "a similar price" to Forest Legend. FL was 39-1, DL was 8-1. Not really similar. You also thought she would be 15-1 if Wickedly Perfect got bet hard. She did and DL was still half of that.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

To be fair, you weren't exactly close with her odds. First you thought she would be "a similar price" to Forest Legend. FL was 39-1, DL was 8-1. Not really similar. You also thought she would be 15-1 if Wickedly Perfect got bet hard. She did and DL was still half of that.

I don't really want to argue this any more, especially because nobody won on the race, but 8-1 to 15-1 (plus a scratch) is a LOT closer to 7/2 in a parimutuel pool.

I also said FL would be 30-1, 40-1 versus an admittedly hopeful 15-1 on DL.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't really want to argue this any more, especially because nobody won on the race, but 8-1 to 15-1 (plus a scratch) is a LOT closer to 7/2 in a parimutuel pool.

I also said FL would be 30-1, 40-1 versus an admittedly hopeful 15-1 on DL.

The point is, you were wrong also, right? Don't you generally have to be right in order to pat yourself on the back? If anyone could, it would be CP, who was dead on with her odds.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't really want to argue this any more, especially because nobody won on the race, but 8-1 to 15-1 (plus a scratch) is a LOT closer to 7/2 in a parimutuel pool.

I also said FL would be 30-1, 40-1 versus an admittedly hopeful 15-1 on DL.

TO be fair, I was live to your house at 8-1 and Hoss horse at 40-1 in the pick 3 for $2.50.... So you both suck.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

The point is, you were wrong also, right? Don't you generally have to be right in order to pat yourself on the back? If anyone could, it would be CP, who was dead on with her odds.

I wasn't right on the race at all. My selection finished a well-beaten 6th. No back patting going on here, guy.