Ateam's Saratoga $100 play-a-day

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

my post was not a put down of Joe's wagering approach but simply curious as to the differences in the roi's between the two

I get what you're driving at, but I doubt there'll be anything to compare. As an example, if Joe gives out a $1 P/4 like this:

R7 : 3,8
R8 : 2,4
R9 : 3,4,6,7,9
R10 : 1,3,5,10,11 ($100 bet),

where would his $100 win bet be (or do you want him to give you that, too, and see what gives a better ROI?)

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I get what you're driving at, but I doubt there'll be anything to compare. As an example, if Joe gives out a $1 P/4 like this:

R7 : 3,8
R8 : 2,4
R9 : 3,4,6,7,9
R10 : 1,3,5,10,11 ($100 bet),

where would his $100 win bet be (or do you want him to give you that, too, and see what gives a better ROI?)

There are numerous ways the win wagers could be placed. In the above layout, I would dutch the 7th and 8th races for $25 to win on each horse for comparison purposes.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I get what you're driving at, but I doubt there'll be anything to compare. As an example, if Joe gives out a $1 P/4 like this:

R7 : 3,8
R8 : 2,4
R9 : 3,4,6,7,9
R10 : 1,3,5,10,11 ($100 bet),

where would his $100 win bet be (or do you want him to give you that, too, and see what gives a better ROI?)

Not looking for him to give me any win bets....he and a few others on here know what I base my most of my bets on

[ateamstupid]

"Another opening day. All future, no past." - Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey in 42

Any baseball fan can describe to you the feeling opening day engenders in the game's followers. It's an unmistakable harbinger of spring, an escape from the unrelenting punishment of winter and a reason for optimism, no matter your rooting interest. For fans of horse racing, there are many special racetracks across the globe, but none put everyone in good spirits and provide that same hope like Saratoga. It's the bulwark on which we all depend in this game of ups and downs, changes and disappointments. The cathedral of North American racing celebrates its 150th anniversary meet this summer and it continues to stand alone as the track that needs no tweaking, the one that everybody agrees is perfect the way it is. Even for the most diehard baseball fan, the ballpark experience inevitably loses some of its luster over the years. But our love for Saratoga will never fade. Every stroll across Union Avenue and through its gates will always feel significant, every deliberate walk around the backyard will make us feel alive, every day-end trip to Horseshoe or Siro's to either celebrate or wash down losses will be cathartic. Some things never change, because some things don't ever need to.

Friday, July 19

Early Pick 4: I generally try to stay away from horizontal sequences that have multiple blind 2-year-old races, but I'll take a modest stab at this one.

2nd: A skull-busting turf claimer. #10 Volcano Run is marginally the horse to beat, but Tony Dutrow's horses did not run well at Belmont and there are no shortages of horses with competitive turf races on the page. AE #13 Formulaforsuccess, dropping for Ramsey/Maker/Rosario, is more imposing to me than anyone in the main draw and I'm guessing won't be his 4-1 M/L if he gets in.

3rd: Just going to guess that whichever Repole OBS purchase Pletcher runs, she'll be better than this group. Singling the 1.

4th: I won't be surprised when #3 Hessonite wins, but I'm inclined to take a small shot against her considering her last two non-efforts. I'll use #4 Inimitable Romanee, #5 Shakeira and #9 Wholelottashakin as B's.

5th: There are five of these I want. #2 Flying K C has a win-early pedigree. Serpe is 2-for-14 (14%, $7.41 ROI) with FTS in NY-bred 2YO maiden dirt sprints at Saratoga. 7 of those 14 (50%) were ITM and he's 4/1-2-0 in those races with Lezcano up. #3 Michonne is out of the productive mare Midway Gal and debuts for sire First Samurai's owner-breeder Lansdon Robbins. #5 I'm Gonna Flip, #7 Irish Sweepstakes and #8 Talk to Me all figure to improve in their 2nd starts, with Irish Sweepstakes clearly the most impressive of the three in her debut.

I want to see if Formulaforsuccess draws into the 2nd before deciding how deep to go in that leg, but I'll finish the ticket 1/3,4,5,9/2,3,5,7,8 with presses of 1/3/2,3,5,7,8 and 1/3/7.

Late Pick 4: This interests me more than the early one, namely because of the wide-open 1st leg and a single that won't be much lower than 2-1. These are the kinds of sequences I steer towards at Saratoga, where I can confidently single a horse that the whole world isn't singling and spread in accompanying competitive races.

7th: Easily the deepest race on the card. In his last race, #1 Googleado broke a few lengths slow, still made the lead, was pressed by a 37-1 shot who ended up beaten 15 1/4 lengths, was headed and bumped by a drifting in No Distinction (3-for-4, 100 BSF top) and still battled very gamely to the end, finishing a narrow 2nd to the quality winner. The rail draw could be a hindrance in this big field, but there isn't a lot of confirmed speed on paper. #2 Tenango became a totally different horse this year when transferred to David Jacobson, ran a good 2nd to Declan's Warrior two back. #3 Coin Flip did get checked some in the stretch last out, but he wasn't beating the winner anyway. He's clearly got some ability, but this is a tough group for a lightly-raced 3-year-old to beat.

#4 Titletown Five is the horse to beat in my eyes. His last one-turn dirt race was a very good 4th in the Derby Trial, where he was wide on a blistering pace that collapsed and was still beaten only 4 lengths. The pacesetter Zee Bros sandwiched 102-103 BSFs around the pace-affected 82 he put up in the Trial. He could benefit from attending moderate fractions in here. Late-running #5 Wall Dance gets to go 7 furlongs for the 1st time and his last two dirt races are plenty competitive with these. #6 Strike One hung a bit last time against Carry Back winner Mico Margarita, but his figures for that effort stack up well. #10 Dawly's BSFs have tailed off in his last two, but his TG numbers have stayed steady and he'll be a decent price for the 1st time since he was claimed by Rudy.

8th: I'm riding with #3 Souper Speedy in this routinely strong James Marvin. Ironically, I like him more if #4 Sage Valley stays in the race, because then I'll be less concerned about #9 Strapping Groom getting loose on the lead, but Souper Speedy has the tactical speed to keep himself close either way. His last two races are simply better than anything this field has run and I'd take him against every 7-8 furlong dirt horse in the country besides the top two from the Met Mile. Sage Valley is the obvious main danger. I don't blame Rajiv for taking him off the pace in the True North when he broke a step slow, not wanting to do battle with Fast Bullet, who ended up on a surprisingly easy lead. Strapping Groom was a shrewd $35,000 claim by Jacobson, but I can't take him off the dream trip he enjoyed in winning the Lion Cavern.

9th: #5 Bahnah clearly the horse to beat off her debut. I don't buy the "could've run faster" argument for her winning in hand last out, as I don't think jockeys' instructions mean much in 4.5-furlong 2YO sprints. Fortunately for her, she doesn't have to run any faster, a repeat of her last will make her very tough. However, winning at 4.5 and winning at 6 furlongs are very different tasks for a 2YO, especially one of her size and especially when #4 Brazen Persuasion already has a win at 6 furlongs. Those two are my A's and I'll make #1A Yes Liz a B if she runs. She was very professional in her debut win and had to fight off a stiff pace challenge before opening up in the stretch. Pletcher running her back in just 16-18 days (she's cross-entered against the boys in the Sanford on Sunday) is a good sign.

10th: #9 Sunbio the clear horse to beat for me. He took a surprising amount of money in the Spectacular Bid and ran well, closing strongly to narrowly miss 2nd after breaking well but getting shuffled back to 11th. His running style suggests he can go longer and his dam, My Own Story, did her damage routing. #2 A Better Tomorrow and #7 Hudson Miracle are the obvious others, but I'll also toss in #8 Sonnyandpally and #6 Birchwood Road in search of a price. Sonnyandpally has had a lot of chances, but his last race was a BTL effort and I think it's positive that Zito doesn't put him in for a tag off the 135-day layoff. Birchwood Road may be too slow, but he was all but eliminated at the start in his last and will be a square number.

I'll post the final tickets after scratches tomorrow, but right now my rough draft ticket for this sequence is: 1,2,4,5,6,10/3/1,4,5/2,6,7,8,9 with a press of 1,4/3/4,5/9.

Hopefully the heat doesn't screw things up. And don't worry, most posts won't be nearly this long, but since I had 3 days to work on opening day, I figured I'd give it the attention it deserves.

[ADJMK]

Make the posts as long as you like. Always nice to read reasons why you like a horse .Today's blurb already was helpful pointing out a few things I missed in my first go thru with the form. Best of luck for the meet.

[asudevil]

Opening words were articulated beautifully....

[MaTH716]

Good stuff Joey. Best of luck for the meet.

[ateamstupid]

Going to pass on the early Pick 4 for purposes of this thread. Just don't think it's going to pay enough to warrant serious investment. Will post my late Pick 4 play a little later.

[TheSpyder]

Keep at it Joey. Good Stuff!

[ateamstupid]

Late Pick 4:
$.50 1,2,4,5,6,10/3/1,4,5/2,6,7,8,9 $45
$.50 1,3,4,7,8/3/4,5/2,7,8,9 $20
$.50 1,4/4/4,5/2,7,8,9 $8
$73

Race 6
$1 PK3 2,3,7,8,9/4/3,4 $10
$2 DBL 2,8,9/1,4 $12
$3 DBL 8/4 $3
$2 DBL 2/4 $2
$27

[ateamstupid]

Souper Speedy's loss as much the best is a study in why you almost always want to draw outside the speed in dirt sprints. I have no problem with what Lezcano did. Nobody else sent and he didn't want to lose his rail spot so he went to the front, it just didn't work out. He would've had a lot more options if he'd have drawn outside Strapping Groom.

[ateamstupid]

Hope some of you threw Sonnyandpally in & weren't married to Souper Speedy like I was.

Your handicapping was, like mine usually, better than your ticket construction.

Some of us (me) who had strong opinions, like the #6 ( Penna's horse) in the last, saved with Rosie. Thanks much, and keep plugging. I will be sure to check your picks against mine all meeting now.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Hope some of you threw Sonnyandpally in & weren't married to Souper Speedy like I was.

Thanks for your analysis!

July 19 12:03 PM Saratoga Thoroughbred 7 $0.50 P4 (PWHL) 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 11 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 5 / 2, 7, 8, 11 $72.00 $637.75

[ateamstupid]

Glad you guys got a piece. Things would have gone a lot better were it for some fast 2nd 1/4's yesterday. I was loving my spot with Googleado and Titletown Five through :22.75, but the two couldn't resist going at each other in next 1/4 and setting up 11-1 New Line, who I didn't like enough. Sonnyandpally got off the mark at a silly 11-1 in the finale to save the day. Read above for my thoughts on Souper Speedy.

[ateamstupid]

Heading to the beach today, so won't be able to check in until after the card.

Saturday Late Pick 4:

8th: The obvious three are #2 Miraculousmo, #4 Del Mar Sunset and #7 Charlie's Picnic, but I'm also using #5 Celebrated Talent and #8 Tony D. Celebrated Talent ran OK in his comeback race and gets 1st Lasix for McLaughlin, a move that has been paying off extremely well for his barn this spring/summer. Tony D was wide behind a slow pace on a speed-favoring track last out and is worth using at a big price.

9th: I don't see how #7 Authenticity loses. She's the best horse in the race and will likely be attending a slow pace. Now that I say that, she'll go :45 for the half, but still, she's my single. Her race in the Ogden Phipps was huge; she fractured the other speed through a fast pace and narrowly lost to the perfect trip winner.

10th: Can't get past the big three in here. #3 Unlimited Budget is the horse to beat turning back after her ill-advised Belmont Stakes try, she and the other Pletcher, Oaks winner #4 Princess of Sylmar will be my A's, #1 My Happy Face is my B.

11th: This is a race worth spreading in. David Jacobson appears to have the strong hand with #11 Road Agent and to a lesser extent #2 Vee's Accolade, though that one refuses to win. But Jacobson's horses didn't run well yesterday (Dual Citizen packed it in after being given an easy lead, Tenango was a no-excuse loser and Strapping Groom, though dueling through a fast pace, was nowhere to be found at the finish). To me, the biggest story of this meet is whether Jacobson will be the magician he was at Belmont or if he'll come down to earth, but I'm betting on the latter so far. I'll use his two, but also use #3 Ludo Bagman, #7 Drum Rolland #12 Velvet Cap.

$1 2,4,5,7,8/7/1,3,4/2,3,7,11,12 $75
$1 2,4,7/7/3,4/3,11,12 $18
Race 8 $7 WIN 8

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Heading to the beach today, so won't be able to check in until after the card.

Saturday Late Pick 4:

8th: The obvious three are #2 Miraculousmo, #4 Del Mar Sunset and #7 Charlie's Picnic, but I'm also using #5 Celebrated Talent and #8 Tony D. Celebrated Talent ran OK in his comeback race and gets 1st Lasix for McLaughlin, a move that has been paying off extremely well for his barn this spring/summer. Tony D was wide behind a slow pace on a speed-favoring track last out and is worth using at a big price.

9th: I don't see how #7 Authenticity loses. She's the best horse in the race and will likely be attending a slow pace. Now that I say that, she'll go :45 for the half, but still, she's my single. Her race in the Ogden Phipps was huge; she fractured the other speed through a fast pace and narrowly lost to the perfect trip winner.

10th: Can't get past the big three in here. #3 Unlimited Budget is the horse to beat turning back after her ill-advised Belmont Stakes try, she and the other Pletcher, Oaks winner #4 Princess of Sylmar will be my A's, #1 My Happy Face is my B.

11th: This is a race worth spreading in. David Jacobson appears to have the strong hand with #11 Road Agent and to a lesser extent #2 Vee's Accolade, though that one refuses to win. But Jacobson's horses didn't run well yesterday (Dual Citizen packed it in after being given an easy lead, Tenango was a no-excuse loser and Strapping Groom, though dueling through a fast pace, was nowhere to be found at the finish). To me, the biggest story of this meet is whether Jacobson will be the magician he was at Belmont or if he'll come down to earth, but I'm betting on the latter so far. I'll use his two, but also use #3 Ludo Bagman, #7 Drum Rolland #12 Velvet Cap.

$1 2,4,5,7,8/7/1,3,4/2,3,7,11,12 $75
$1 2,4,7/7/3,4/3,11,12 $18
Race 8 $7 WIN 8

$2 Pick 4 pays $279

[casp0555]

nice job today Joey, hope the beach was nice

[ateamstupid]

Thx casp. Very relaxing!

Sunday, July 21

Early Pick 4:

2nd: While I acknowledge that Clement's 2nd-timer #2 Red Vine is the horse to beat off a very nice debut, there are a few others that interest me. #1 First Beach comes out of the same race as the favorite and while he saved more ground on the turn, he really had nowhere to run in the stretch and put in a pretty good close when he finally got clear. I don't think the difference between the two is the 2 lengths they were separated by. First Beach showed promise in his dirt debut for a barn that races them into shape and I think he'll show up with his best race yet today. #5 All That is bred pretty well for grass and is moved to the turf by Chad Brown off a pretty nice dirt race. That's good enough for me. I'll also use #7 Rapscallion at a price. His damside breeding is all grass, Speightstowns run on anything and Motion tried to get him on turf at Delaware last time; the race was rained off and he still showed up with a much-improved effort off his debut.

3rd: If you have a strong opinion about someone in this race, you're a bolder handicapper than I. This is a total scramble to me and I'm spreading accordingly. The one thing I'll bank on is there being a quick pace, as there are two fast one-way speeds in #5 Thinking of Girls and #10 Derby Watch, along with several other stalkers with good early speed. Of the two speedballs, I'll only use Thinking of Girls. Derby Watch's huge race two-back came over a very speed-biased track and I don't think his last is good enough to win this. #4 School Spirit's last race wins this, but he faces a much, much tougher field today. I'll use several big-priced closers in the event of a total meltdown. In no particular order, give me #2 Poised to a Tee, #4 School Spirit, #5 Thinking of Girls, #6 Reggie D, #8 Bemata, #9 Harley, #12 Shotinthefog and #13 Poliziano.

4th: I'll take my shot singling #6 Uno Duo. Her last race was a really good effort, as she shook off several pace challengers who ended up running well below their BSF tops and opened up in midstretch before being caught on the line by the tripped-out Irish Lute, who's probably better than anyone in this field. She's gotten better with every race and looks like a future stakes horse. She also draws that valuable outside slot, so Rosario will have options depending on who, if anyone, sends. The only horse that seriously worries me is #5 Pow Wow Wow, who did nothing but chase nice horses at Gulfstream and whose best isn't far off what the favorite ran last time. I'll hedge with her if the sequence looks like it's going to pay well after the first two legs.

5th: Another race where I think price-fishing is appropriate. There are no stickouts, though I respect the two M/L favorites #3 Tater Downs and #5 Wild Billum. Tater Downs' race two-back would almost certainly win this and he faces an easier field today than he did last out. Wild Billum made a big close into a slow pace to win his turf debut, running his final 5/16 in a very sharp :28.21. I really like #12 Wildcatter as well; Tom Voss always comes to the paddock with live horses in the flat races at Saratoga and his form from last summer is plenty competitive with this group. I'll also use #1 Street Fight, who chased a fast horse through a fast pace two back and still ran a very creditable 3rd. His last effort was considerably less heartening, but it was on 10 days' rest, so maybe he gets back to the previous race with more time and several stamina-enhancing works in the interim. #7 Vindication Now ran much better than the BSF suggests in his last, as he was wide all the way around the track and still powered away in the stretch. Obviously this is a much tougher field, but he'll be a fair price. This race might be too short for #9 Myhorseofcourse, but he showed a serious closing punch over the winter at Gulfstream and the presence of Lezcano is always a positive on the grass.

$.50 1,2,5,7/2,4,5,6,8,9,12,13/6/1,3,5,7,9,12 $96
Race 5 $4 WIN 12

[ateamstupid]

Well, I got to feel smart for about a half-hour yesterday, as I successfully got 14-1 Rapscallion home to start the Pick 4 thanks to a great ride by Alan Garcia. But that was about my only good opinion all day, as Marriedtothemusic quickly busted my ticket in the next leg. At an underlaid 8-1, Marriedtothemusic somehow wasn't pressed by Thinking of Girls or Derby Watch, was allowed a clear lead through :22.59 and :45.19 and improved his BSF 18 points off his top to win in a romp. I didn't like 28-1 5th race winner Happy Fella either. All in all, those are the kind of losses I can live with, where horses I didn't want at all knock me out, as opposed to ones I considered using but left off for one reason or another. Also, I had the right idea (just the wrong horses) in searching for prices around the single of Uno Duo, as even with that 1-2 winner, the sequence paid $11,000+ for $.50. But it was the kind of bizarre day where you might have had one or two good ideas, but it was very tough to string anything together.

We head into Monday with a deficit of just $21, so one good day today will make this a successful opening week. Let's get into it.

Monday, July 22

Late Pick 4:

7th: Whenever there isn't a stickout dropper, these cheap maiden claimers are good races to look for value in. #1 Optionality is going to take a lot of money and while I'll use him defensively, he's got a lot of question marks. He was never anything special to begin with, but the assumption last time out was that the Ramsey/Maker claim at Churchill would turn him around. It didn't, and while he was checked a bit in between horses in midstretch, he had absolutely nothing to offer anyway and the fact that he couldn't even get 3rd in there isn't good. Now he draws the rail and comes to Saratoga, where the connections haven't had the same magic early in the meet. #2 Mr. William drops in for $25,000 after being claimed for $40,000 by Jacobson and switches surfaces. Jacobson is 4-for-7 (with another finishing 2nd by a head) with a $2.91 ROI with horses going turf to dirt 1st off the claim in maiden claimers.

#3 Southern Safari didn't run a step after breaking slowly in his debut, but takes an enormous drop in class and gets a positive rider switch today. Maybe with a more alert break he can surprise at a price. #4 Foggy Road is also taking a big class plunge for the ever-dangerous Dubb/RudyRod connections. #7 Stop Sign is the horse to beat for me, as he figures to be the controlling speed and cuts back to six furlongs, a call at which he had the lead in both of his races. He does go out for a low-percentage barn on just 9 days' rest, but his chances increase even more with the scratch of Fairy Snow. #9 Dapper Draper may also appreciate the cutback. He was bet like he couldn't lose in his debut, showed nothing that day, but stepped forward significantly next time out. #10 Lincoln Flyer is a well-bred 4-year-old 1st-time starter, but his worktab has been steady as can be since 5/14, including seven 5-furlong breezes and a 6-furlong work. Maybe he can't run, but he looks like he'll be ready to go 1st out and wouldn't need to be a monster to factor.

8th: #5 Peace Preserver's last turf race should win this going away. She broke a step slow, got stuck behind a very slow pace, lost ground on the far turn and still outgamed the 3-4 favorite to be a closing 2nd behind a dazzling Hessonite, running her last 5/16 in :28 flat. Her 2nd in the Riskaverse at Saratoga last summer is also better than it looks. I'm hoping that Angel's South gives Fantasy of Flight at least some company up front. #7 Open Water drops in class and switches back to turf, where she was hardly disgraced in several graded stakes tries last summer. Her figure from the Marjorie Everett win makes her competitive with these and perhaps she's better on grass than synthetic.

9th: #2 Awesome Vision, #3 Readthebyline and #5 Groomedforvictory appear to hold the keys to this race. #6 So Scott is a fringe player, but I didn't like his last race and that big 2nd in the Commentator came on 5 days' rest at a time when Jacobson was winning everything.

10th: #8 Starship Gambler is going to take some beating. I'm well aware that she's burned a lot of money lately, especially since I needed her for a four-figure score two-back when she faded late against C P Hath a Way. But she set a ridiculously fast pace last out and was passed by better horses than she's facing today. The 26-1 winner that day validated her 76 BSF by returning to run 3rd with a 77 at Indiana Downs next out and one of the horses that chased Starship Gambler came back to wire a turf claimer at Ellis, improving her BSF 6 points. Her TG figures tower over this group and I have a feeling Rosario will be better able to harness her speed than her last jockey. The only other horse that interests me is #3 Sheerflakesofgold, who ran several competitive races last year against slightly better. She goes out for an underrated trainer in Dave Duggan, who puts up his go-to rider Jose Ortiz. The two are 6-for-16 (9-for-16 ITM) with a $7.06 ROI together. It's a concern she hasn't been seen since 2/18, but note that she ran a good 2nd at 10-1 off a similar layoff opening week at Saratoga last year.

$1.50 1,2,3,4,7,9,10/5,7/2,3,5/8 $63
$.50 1,2,3,4,7,9,10/5,7/2,3,5/3 $21
$1 7/3,4,5,6/2,3,6/8 $12
$1 7/5/6/8 $1
Race 7 $3 WIN 3