The Cops are coming after me...

[blackthroatedwind]

Hmmmm, a Tagg horse making his second start was beaten by about a length by a Pletcher horse making his thrid start.....and that is conclusive evidence that the winner is the " better animal "?

Yawn.

It will be interesting to see how Scat Daddy does when forced to run without a six week vacation between starts. He seems like a decent horse, though I can't help but be skeptical about his future ( anybody see Keyed Entry recently? ), but it feels far from evident which horse is the better between Scat Daddy and NoBiz but I would guess NoBiz is a shorter price to win next year's Derby at this point.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Its always easy in hindsight. The horse had a dream of a trip. He basically had the speed get out clean and kill themselves. Hardly the type of trip he had in his last. If you think thats easy money, your nuts. Too much can happen. If Lukas horse does not make that lead and push Sho biz, Scat Daddy would have been lookin at his rear.

Oh its so easy after the race is over.

100% correct.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Hmmmm, a Tagg horse making his second start was beaten by about a length by a Pletcher horse making his thrid start.....and that is conclusive evidence that the winner is the " better animal "?

Yawn.

It will be interesting to see how Scat Daddy does when forced to run without a six week vacation between starts. He seems like a decent horse, though I can't help but be skeptical about his future ( anybody see Keyed Entry recently? ), but it feels far from evident which horse is the better between Scat Daddy and NoBiz but I would guess NoBiz is a shorter price to win next year's Derby at this point.

Yeah Keyed Entry runs about as much as Commentator does......

Scat Daddy will improve going two-turns IMO....maybe not 1 1/4 miles, but he'll love the BC Juvy distance.....and yes, I believe that he is a better animal than anything Albert the Great can produce....

By the way, Scat Daddy was making his fourth start....and that length margin could have further more than it could have been closer IMO.....he was greener than baby shiat the last sixteenth and basically put away NLS, who was struggling to put away Lukas' horse I might add, while only goofing around...

Don't tell me you took 8-5 on that thing???....Ah man, I would hope your a better horse player than that, Andy....

[blackthroatedwind]

Actually Senor Redboarder I bet Pegasus Wind because he was the true overlay in the race.

You really are the Yogi Berra of analogies, by the way, as that comparison between Keyed Entry and Commentator is somewhere between baffling and moronic.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually Senor Redboarder I bet Pegasus Wind because he was the true overlay in the race.
as that comparison between Keyed Entry and Commentator is somewhere between baffling and moronic.

Yeah, because Commentator runs so much and is SOOOO sound, isn't he? I know hat you meant....everyone on this board knows you think Pletcher breaks down all of his horses....its public knowledge, just like we know you think Zito is a horse whisperer...

By the way, Pegasus Wind was a horrible play....got an easy lead and still croaked.....how could you lose that race after walking by yourself on the lead??? An overlay ...hardly....he isn't on the same planet with Scat Daddy on talent....I've seen them both train extensively...

Plus, Lukas isn't allowed to win big races anymore, is he?

[The Bid]

Poor Albert the Great, he cant help that hes a brutal sire.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

The price was the easy part. not the fact he won the race....

By the way, you might want to go back and watch the race....there was NO speed dual at all...you're a little confused evidentally...Lukas' horse had an easy lead through a crawling opening quarter in 24 and change and Nobiz was actually towarsd the rear early with Scat Daddy....Scat Daddy didn't have the greatest of trips either IMO, as he was wider and had a lot to do for a 2-year-old......NLS slipped through the inside and had first run and got the jump on Scat Daddy while saving more ground and he still couldn't put away Lukas' horse....the best horse ran over them both.....end of story...Nobiz had no excuses other than he got outrun by a better animal....

You are too much into times. The front two got busy with each other in the middle of the race and wore each other out. You are telling me Scat Daddy beats shobiz with no Pegasus? Shobiz would have run away. Same horse runs a 1:35 with no company and does just that. These two year olds get very worn with company. Scat Daddy had as easy a run as its gonna get with that size field. I will agree however Scat Daddy was screwing around. Dont matter. Come Derby time, they will be memories. I would never bet that horse at 5-2 in that field. He was the best horse, but I never make that bet.

Nobiz was a complete throwout imo and I stated so BEFORE the race. He actually performed much better than I thought. Pegasus really lengthened and was a great bet at those numbers.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Couldn't disagree with you more about Pegasus. At 21-1 he was a very good play I think. He was beat what a length or 2 for all the money. Not a bad play at 21-1 I think. Seriously, Scat ran a very good race, but at this point I'll take Nobiz to beat him in the juvenile. Nobiz had a much tougher trip than Scat, after breaking slowly. He showed a great turn of foot to get back into it, and certainly held his own for it being his second start. At 8-5, yeah his odds were way underlaid. But I think the Juvy will be a completely different story. Not sold on Scat going two turns yet, and for someone who is so concerned by pedigree as you have made two snipes at Albert The Great. It is humorous that you are so sure a horse by Johannesburg will get two turns.

Pedigree 101:

The sire provides the brilliance and the dam provides the stamina on most occasions. His dam is heavy in stamina breeding and performance and there are Grade 1 winners around two turns in the second and third dam....

Plus, if I remember correctly Johannesburg won the BC Juvy at 1 1/16 miles and that is all I said about Scat Daddy...I admit that I'm skeptical about him getting Classic distances...I've said that many times already.....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Pedigree 101:

The sire provides the brilliance and the dam provides the stamina on most occasions. His dam is heavy in stamina breeding and performance and there are Grade 1 winners around two turns in the second and third dam....

Plus, if I remember correctly Johannesburg won the BC Juvy at 1 1/16 miles and that is all I said about Scat Daddy...I admit that I'm skeptical about him getting Classic distances...I've said that many times already.....

Brilliance...

Thats good catchall horsey talk.

Originally Posted by pgardn

You are too much into times. The front two got busy with each other in the middle of the race and wore each other out. You are telling me Scat Daddy beats shobiz with no Pegasus? Shobiz would have run away. Same horse runs a 1:35 with no company and does just that. These two year olds get very worn with company. Scat Daddy had as easy a run as its gonna get with that size field. I will agree however Scat Daddy was screwing around. Dont matter. Come Derby time, they will be memories. I would never bet that horse at 5-2 in that field. He was the best horse, but I never make that bet.

Nobiz was a complete throwout imo and I stated so BEFORE the race. He actually performed much better than I thought. Pegasus really lengthened and was a great bet at those numbers.

Yeah, I'm saying Scat Daddy beats NLS no matter what Pegasus Wind does...

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Yeah, I'm saying Scat Daddy beats NLS no matter what Pegasus Wind does...

And I say you are wrong.

[ateamstupid]

Few things..

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Circular Quay will take more money because he is a graded stakes winner at CD and he won the head-to-head against 'Scat'....Scat Daddy will be the second choice at around 3-1 if I had to guess on the information I currently have....depends on the number of entrants really....

I find this very hard to believe. The public bets mainly based on BSFs and Circular Quay has ONE over 90. Scat Daddy has three. I'm guessing he's the shorter price, probably around 2:1, with CQ at about 3:1 and Nobiz in between the two.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

By the way, Scat Daddy was making his fourth start....and that length margin could have further more than it could have been closer IMO.....he was greener than baby shiat the last sixteenth and basically put away NLS, who was struggling to put away Lukas' horse I might add, while only goofing around...

So let me get this straight. This horse is making his fourth career start, and it's a POSITIVE that he's STILL "greener than baby shiat"? First of all, I disagree entirely, NLS was the much greener one, and second of all, even if you're correct, I find it pretty strange that a horse making his fourth career start and still being "greener than baby shiat" three weeks before the BC is a positive thing to you.

And finally..

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually Senor Redboarder

LMAO.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Thanks for the lesson. I have no desire to get into one of your immature debates, so we'll see what happens in the Juvy.

Just explaining how I believe pedigree to affect a horse's distance capabilities, man....sorry you couldn't take it....the firt thing I learned was the very rule of thumb you obviously don't believe in.... no big deal, its all good...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Yeah, because Commentator runs so much and is SOOOO sound, isn't he? I know hat you meant....everyone on this board knows you think Pletcher breaks down all of his horses....its public knowledge, just like we know you think Zito is a horse whisperer...

By the way, Pegasus Wind was a horrible play....got an easy lead and still croaked.....how could you lose that race after walking by yourself on the lead??? An overlay ...hardly....he isn't on the same planet with Scat Daddy on talent....I've seen them both train extensively...

Plus, Lukas isn't allowed to win big races anymore, is he?

Wow, Joel, that's a really sad post and inaccurate post.

Commentator is a laimo, no doubt, as he didn't get to the races until August of his three year old year, whereupon he strung up five consecutive victories before sustaining an injury most likely during the Hal's Hope at Gulfstream. Following that he returned six months later and strung up two consecutive 120 plus Beyer figures including a defeat of Saint Liam in the Whitney at Saratoga. He was then injured in his next, and ninth start, in the Woodward. He returned ten months later to win an allowance at Belmont before his effort ( or non-effort ) in the Vosburgh. No doubt he has his share of physical problems, but he showed solid ability from the start and at least has been able to show it with a consistency even during his spotty career.

Now Keyed Entry...ran once at 2 and won a slow race at Monmouth. He then returned six months later at Gulfstream where he exploded with a victory and improved his Beyer 35 points from his debut. He followed that up by outfooting multiple Grade 1 winning First Samurai and increased his Beyer figure another 14 points. He followed this sudden improvement with two solid, if less than spectacular efforts when stretching out only to be virtually eased in the KY Derby. He showed up another two months later in the Dwyer only to essentially be eased again. Exploded on the scene with two dynamic races, tailed off, disappeared.

Perhaps you see a correlation between the two but to me if feels like two very different situations. But, your poor analysis doesn't stop there, as you then claim that I think " Pletcher breaks down all his horses ". It is here where you turn into a scumbag and not just an inaccurate analyst. Be very clear here, Joel, it is you that turned this into a fight by making outrageous and false claims about me. What I have said here on a number of occasions is that many horses from Todd's barn flash a lot of ability but fail to sustain these improvements and often pretty much disappear from the scene. This is not claiming he " breaks down " any or " all of his horses " but that he doesn't have a long resume of sustained improvement in horses. There is a substantial difference between these two things whether they fit your deranged againda or not.

As for my supposed claims about Nick Zito....huh? He's my friend, that's something I have never hidden, but sorry if I can't recall the posts where I claimed he was " a horse whisperer ". Feel free to find them but mostly I have just said I root for him. I do think he's a good trainer, hell his record certainly indicates that, just as I have stated on many occasions that I think Todd Pletcher is a terrific trainer ( how could anybody not think that ) but they certainly have different styles.

I never claimed that Pegusus Wind ran a great race but if you think he was a horrible play, at 21-1, after that race then you know absolutely nothing about betting on horse races. If the reasons for this aren't self-evident then there is nothing anyone can do to explain it to you.

So, I posted that I disagreed with you about the perspective futures of NoBiz and Scat Daddy and you very quickly turned this into a fight where you libelled me by making false claims about me as well as inaccurately assessed a number of my comments in a further desperate attempt for a fight.

Get a grip on yourself dude.

Originally Posted by pgardn

And I say you are wrong.

cool..............

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Wow, Joel, that's a really sad post and inaccurate post.

Commentator is a laimo, no doubt, as he didn't get to the races until August of his three year old year, whereupon he strung up five consecutive victories before sustaining an injury most likely during the Hal's Hope at Gulfstream. Following that he returned six months later and strung up two consecutive 120 plus Beyer figures including a defeat of Saint Liam in the Whitney at Saratoga. He was then injured in his next, and ninth start, in the Woodward. He returned ten months later to win an allowance at Belmont before his effort ( or non-effort ) in the Vosburgh. No doubt he has his share of physical problems, but he showed solid ability from the start and at least has been able to show it with a consistency even during his spotty career.

Now Keyed Entry...ran once at 2 and won a slow race at Monmouth. He then returned six months later at Gulfstream where he exploded with a victory and improved his Beyer 35 points from his debut. He followed that up by outfooting multiple Grade 1 winning First Samurai and increased his Beyer figure another 14 points. He followed this sudden improvement with two solid, if less than spectacular efforts when stretching out only to be virtually eased in the KY Derby. He showed up another two months later in the Dwyer only to essentially be eased again. Exploded on the scene with two dynamic races, tailed off, disappeared.

Perhaps you see a correlation between the two but to me if feels like two very different situations. But, your poor analysis doesn't stop there, as you then claim that I think " Pletcher breaks down all his horses ". It is here where you turn into a scumbag and not just an inaccurate analyst. Be very clear here, Joel, it is you that turned this into a fight by making outrageous and false claims about me. What I have said here on a number of occasions is that many horses from Todd's barn flash a lot of ability but fail to sustain these improvements and often pretty much disappear from the scene. This is not claiming he " breaks down " any or " all of his horses " but that he doesn't have a long resume of sustained improvement in horses. There is a substantial difference between these two things whether they fit your deranged againda or not.

As for my supposed claims about Nick Zito....huh? He's my friend, that's something I have never hidden, but sorry if I can't recall the posts where I claimed he was " a horse whisperer ". Feel free to find them but mostly I have just said I root for him. I do think he's a good trainer, hell his record certainly indicates that, just as I have stated on many occasions that I think Todd Pletcher is a terrific trainer ( how could anybody not think that ) but they certainly have different styles.

I never claimed that Pegusus Wind ran a great race but if you think he was a horrible play, at 21-1, after that race then you know absolutely nothing about betting on horse races. If the reasons for this aren't self-evident then there is nothing anyone can do to explain it to you.

So, I posted that I disagreed with you about the perspective futures of NoBiz and Scat Daddy and you very quickly turned this into a fight where you libelled me by making false claims about me as well as inaccurately assessed a number of my comments in a further desperate attempt for a fight.

Get a grip on yourself dude.

Just go shoot yourself, man.....you are miserable.....

Oh, and a 'good play' is finding a horse who wins at 21-1, not a horse with no chance.....how rewarding was that third-place finish? How much did it pay, Focker?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Just go shoot yourself, man.....you are miserable.....

Oh, and a 'good play' is finding a horse who wins at 21-1, not a horse with no chance.....how rewarding was that third-place finish? How much did it pay, Focker?

You could have just apologized.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You could have just apologized.

I'm still waiting for your apology from the first childish lash-out you had against me a week or two ago.....but I never held my breath because I know New Yorkers are proud people....

I'm waiting for you both to take your toys and go home.

Oh and congrats on Scat Daddy. I can't believe you picked that one. Good job, handicapper.

[Dunbar]

Put me squarely in the camp that thinks the 21-1 missing by a length is more likely the overlay than the 5-2 winning by 3/4. To call getting 5-2 on that narrow win a "steal" is far-fetched.

And to knock the 21-1 bet because it didn't "pay" is silly. If you can hit 10% of your 21-1 picks, you'd be the most successful bettor at the track. Missing by a length with that kind of longshot is evidence that you are on the right path.

--Dunbar