March Madness picks thread

I keep beating myself. NEVER take a team that gives their coach a raise before his job is done.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Ohio State -4 1/2
110/100

Baylor/Saint Mary's
Over 142
110/100

Northern Iowa PK
110/100

Duke/Purdue
Under 127 1/2
110/100

Duke/Purdue
2nd Half Over 66
55/50

+5
28-25-2

Right back where I started, sigh.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

St. Mary's/Baylor over 142 220/200 L...OL
Tennessee/Ohio St. under 135 165/150 L...OL
Duke/Purdue over 126.5 220/200 W
__________________
Just put a hundo on Tennessee ML at +180. W

Thank you, Purdue, for fouling when you had no shot. Joey, how bout that middle?!!!

2-2 tonight -5
26-20-3 +160 overall

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I keep beating myself. NEVER take a team that gives their coach a raise before his job is done.

I phuckin hate Michigan State.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

I phuckin hate Michigan State.

Me too.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thank you, Purdue, for fouling when you had no shot. Joey, how bout that middle?!!!

2-2 tonight -5
26-20-3 +160 overall

LOL, I was ready to jump off a roof if they fouled one more time. I checked back to see what you bet it at, pretty funny. Still a horrendous Sweet 16 for me.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Me too.

Just saw your twitter post. They make me ill. Every year they make a Tournament run and **** up my bracket. Other times I actually take them I lose. I hate Duke but they absolutely earned their victory tonight... however with the way Baylor is playing they will get steamrolled if they are so dependent on the top 3 like they were tonight.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Duke -8.5 110/100
Over 127.5 in duke game 55/50

11-13-4 +25

100 west virginia +170

110/100 K State -4

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just saw your twitter post. They make me ill. Every year they make a Tournament run and **** up my bracket. Other times I actually take them I lose. I hate Duke but they absolutely earned their victory tonight... however with the way Baylor is playing they will get steamrolled if they are so dependent on the top 3 like they were tonight.

Baylor has gotten better with each tournament game and they're the first team Duke's played that has the size and athleticism to defend them at every position. Your guess at the line?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Doesn't that mean that you have Duke for 200?

Yes, so Im saying I wont call in a bet for myself, I just keep eating his.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Baylor has gotten better with each tournament game and they're the first team Duke's played that has the size and athleticism to defend them at every position. Your guess at the line?

Duke 4, and the play is Baylor.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Baylor has gotten better with each tournament game and they're the first team Duke's played that has the size and athleticism to defend them at every position. Your guess at the line?

Baylor should be favored based on play but this is Duke and they are a number 1 seed. I would imagine Duke will be laying 3.

I have been waiting to bet against Duke the whole tourney. I had Texas A and M beating purdue and taking Duke out here (they would have!). Baylor will beat them.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Duke 4, and the play is Baylor.

Please disregard my previous post.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Baylor has gotten better with each tournament game and they're the first team Duke's played that has the size and athleticism to defend them at every position. Your guess at the line?

I would have made it Duke -4.5, I guess it came out at -4 according to PG.

My formula-generated lines for each game (a work in progress but getting close to polished, it's up to a 60% winning percentage over a sample size of 2,000 games with approximately 600 of those having a play at 3.5 points differing from the line):
Baylor/Duke -4.5 O/U 143.5
WV/Kentucky -6 O/U 138.5
Butler/K-State -7 O/U 135
Tennessee/Mich St +1.5 O/U 128

FWIW, the Sweet 16 lines it generated:
Tennessee/Ohio St -2 O/U 131
UNI/Michigan St -6 O/U 121
St Marys/Baylor -4 O/U 147
Duke/Purdue -8 O/U 132
Xavier/K-State -2.5 O/U 148
Butler/Syracuse -7 O/U 136
Cornell/Kentucky -12 O/U 149
Washington/West Virginia -3 141.5

[philcski]

Just ran the first round versus its results for shits and giggles (actual in parenthesis).
Kansas/Lehigh 86-64 (90-74)
Tenn/SDSU 68-61 (62-59)
UNLV/UNI 60-59 (66-69)
BYU/Florida 78-66 (99-92 2OT)
Butler/UTEP 63-63 (77-59)
Kansas St/N Texas 82-61 (82-62)
Vanderbilt/Murray St 73-67 (65-66)
Kentucky/ETSU 77-57 (100-71)
Marquette/Washington 68-77 (78-80)
New Mexico/Montana 75-62 (62-57)
Texas/Wake 71-67 (80-81 OT)
Baylor/SHSU 79-70 (68-59)
Notre Dame/Old Dominion 66-67 (50-51)
Richmond/St. Mary's 67-72 (71-80)
Georgetown/Ohio 76-68 (83-97)
Villanova/Rob Morris 77-60 (73-70)
Maryland/Houston 85-73 (89-77)
Michigan St./New Mex St. 77-70 (70-67)
Ohio St./UCSB 74-56 (68-51)
Okla St./Georgia Tech 67-69 (59-64)
Gonzaga/Florida St. 64-64 (67-60)
Pittsburgh/Oakland 74-66 (89-66)
Syracuse/Vermont 82-61 (79-56)
Xavier/Minnesota 75-68 (65-54)
Clemson/Missouri 68-70 (78-86)
Temple/Cornell 65-65 (65-78)
WV/Morgan 77-62 (77-50)
Wisconsin/Wofford 63-58 (53-49)
California/Louisville 78-71 (77-62)
Duke/AR PB 78-48 (73-44)
Purdue/Siena 67-64 (72-64)
Tex A&M/Utah St 67-62 (69-53)

[ateamstupid]

Kansas State -3 1/2
110/100

[ateamstupid]

Holy ****, can we have a Final Three? These two teams are pathetic. Butler has 18 turnovers and Gus Johnson says they're running a clinic.

[philcski]

Yeah Butler!!!!!!!!!! Way To Go!!!!

[ateamstupid]

That was fuc king pathetic. Can I get the right side of the bracket winner over the left side winner right now? Jesus Christ, what an imbalance.

Frank Martin is a fu cking moron. How the hell do you lose to a team with zero frontline that commits 19 turnovers? You might want to tell your guards to stop dribbling for eight hours and feed Curtis Kelly, you f ucking oversized suit wearing douchebag.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That was fuc king pathetic. Can I get the right side of the bracket winner over the left side winner right now? Jesus Christ, what an imbalance.

Frank Martin is a fu cking moron. How the hell do you lose to a team with zero frontline that commits 19 turnovers? You might want to tell your guards to stop dribbling for eight hours and feed Curtis Kelly, you f ucking oversized suit wearing douchebag.

Eh, f*ck K-State. Who give a sh1t about them anyways. Nobody would remember next year if they made the Final Four, but they'll be talking about Butler coming home for 20.

I don't know how Butler does it, because on just about every metric they are pretty much mediocre, but they just WIN. And that's all that matters to me.