Bluegrass or Florida Derby

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by philcski

The Wood is free money for any of these that can really run. There isn't anybody top flight pointing for it.

are you kidding nobiz and circular quay

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Linny

I agree about AGS needing earning but remember, he'll be one of the top 2 choices in the Blue Grass, with a %750k purse. If he's one of the choices, why should he duck the spot and go elsewhere?

i dont think he will be top 2 not with hard spun, street sense, and great hunter... i'd prefer any of those horse to any given saturday

[philcski]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

are you kidding nobiz and circular quay

Maybe you should read through the whole thread before responding next time.
This was NOT the case before (Nobiz was a possible but CQ was considering Arkansas.)

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Linny

The G1 is very important for the connections of AGS as he is owned by WinStar Farm which is like Coolmore Light. They are a stud operation meaning that racing for them is a means to an end, breeding. As a KY based outfit, the win at KEE is significant as well.
Arky clearly looks easier, he'd be 1-2 there, but I figure he'll be 2-1 in the Blue Grass anyhow. It's not like he's got only an outside shot there.

Good point, but I still don't get it. It is not like the Arkansas Derby is way below the BG, although I don't know enough about breeding to know the differnce in stud value. However, if the goal is to get into the Derby with a horse that looked impressive last out and you need a 1-2 finish, why run against horses like SS, Great Hunter and Hard Spun where a 1-2 finish is much tougher than the AD which clearly does not have talent as tough? Just a little surprised, but I am sure they have their reasons, which you may have identified.

[SOREHOOF]

I'm getting the feeling AGS may be 30-1 or so in the Derby by a lot of these comments. A lot like Bluegrass Cat. What has AGS done wrong? I'm already licking my chops. This horse will hit the board in the derby. I hope he flops next start! I will still look at Bluegrass Stakes results the same way I always have... if a horse wins, doesn't mean a thing...if a horse runs flat, doesn't mean a thing. Speed favoring becomes late runner favoring. At least the Wood is still run on old fashioned DIRT.

[pointman]

I'm not knocking AGS, Sorehoof, the question presented here is whether he can gain enough graded stakes earnings to even get into the Derby. If he does not finish 1-2 (or possibly 3) in his next start, AGS likely won't even get a chance to get into the starting gate.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe you should read through the whole thread before responding next time.
This was NOT the case before (Nobiz was a possible but CQ was considering Arkansas.)

cq is going to the wood....

[SOREHOOF]

Originally Posted by pointman

I'm not knocking AGS, Sorehoof, the question presented here is whether he can gain enough graded stakes earnings to even get into the Derby. If he does not finish 1-2 (or possibly 3) in his next start, AGS likely won't even get a chance to get into the starting gate.

That would truly be sad.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I'm getting the feeling AGS may be 30-1 or so in the Derby by a lot of these comments. A lot like Bluegrass Cat. What has AGS done wrong? I'm already licking my chops. This horse will hit the board in the derby. I hope he flops next start! I will still look at Bluegrass Stakes results the same way I always have... if a horse wins, doesn't mean a thing...if a horse runs flat, doesn't mean a thing. Speed favoring becomes late runner favoring. At least the Wood is still run on old fashioned DIRT.

I feel the same way, but I think he runs well here. I think AGS likes the Poly...

[pointman]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

That would truly be sad.

That is exactly my point in saying he is probably better going into the AD than the BG. I can't say that AGS is a top contender yet, but his last race was impressive and he needs the graded earnings to ensure that he gets into the Derby, unlike a SS or Hard Spun who have enough to get in today. Off his last performance he deserves to be 1 of 20, but if he flops in his next he likely will not get in the Derby.

[SOREHOOF]

I'd like to retract that FLOP remark. I agree about the AD, so long as the top dogs get the money in the other preps he might not fall too far down the ladder.

[Bogey]

To answer the question: Mark me down for the Florida Derby, the only G1 $1million prep race - even with the Preakness and Belmont (G1 & $1mil) - Plus it looks to be a stellar field.

[smuthg]

I wasn't on the old Derby Trail website, but was there this sort of discussion/debate when Rock Hard Ten got left out of the Derby? Talk about a horse that was clearly one of the Top 5 of his generation... I'm sure his connections didn't think there was anyway that he would not get the graded earnings in the SA Derby, but he didn't (DQ'ed if I remember correctly).

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by smuthg

I wasn't on the old Derby Trail website, but was there this sort of discussion/debate when Rock Hard Ten got left out of the Derby? Talk about a horse that was clearly one of the Top 5 of his generation... I'm sure his connections didn't think there was anyway that he would not get the graded earnings in the SA Derby, but he didn't (DQ'ed if I remember correctly).

there is at least one horse each year who blooms in the weeks leading up to the derby, but hasn't got the earnings to get in. it happens...but the rules are in place for a reason, 20 horses imo is far too many, they have to draw a line somewhere. if AGS doesn't make the cut, he doesn't make the cut. and horses have been entered and then withdrawn before, leaving the field short--bob baffert got a lot of criticism for doing that a few years ago....so really all you can do is suggest an AE list...

as for RHT--he was probably better off missing the race.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

as for RHT--he was probably better off missing the race.

Back in 1972, Charlie Whittingham had a huge T.V. Lark colt for Bwamazon Farm that everybody thought would be a really hot classic contender. Out of Princequillo mare, bred to run all day. He had run second in the San Felipe H and then was second again in the Santa Anita Derby, closing late. Then he went up to Golden Gate and handily won the California Derby (then a G2-type prep, 2 weeks out from the Derby, like the Wood). But Charlie didn't take him to Kentucky. Said he was too immature, not ready for that kind of test. Didn't run in any of the classics. But by midsummer, he was in shape to win the Hollywood Gold Cup over older horses, the only 3yo other than Round Table to do so, in 1:58:1, which equalled the world record. Quack went on to win G1s at 4 and 5, despite the sort of iffy ankles huge horses often have.

We need a few more trainers like Charlie, willing to tell the owner "Yes, you have a good colt, but if I run him in the Derby before he's ready for that kind of race, he'll be done, and I don't do that to horses."