Early HOY predictions

Originally Posted by Gander

I cant think of too much opposition Flower Alley will have to contend with in the Whitney. Maybe Suave, Perfect Drift, Seek Gold, possibly Buzzard Bay.

Its his home track and he'll be 3/5 and he'll probably romp like he did in last year's gerbil infested Jim Dandy.

What will that prove? Why is this anymore important than Lava Man beating a couple of past grade 1 winners on the turf, who werent at the top of their fomr cycle? Because its a race rich with tradition? Please. What does the history of the Whitney have to do with identifying this year's HOY?

We will see who comes and takes on Flower Alley in the Whitney. Then we will see how Lava Man does out West.

Tim I really don't see how you can dismiss teh prestige of a race like the WHitney. Some years the Derby isnt filled with stars(lets take this year) but the winner still gets the lead in the divisonal race. And what does his price have to do with it? You really lost me there. If hes bet down because he appears to be that good I dont see how it factors in whatsoever. And if some horses duck the spot in order to avoid facing him, is this not a compliment for the respect that they have for him? Lava Man will be facing noone out there who is even vaguely considered a Grade One horse. Not that i would do any different if I were them though. Its a money game and running in huge purse races against no competition in your own backyard is 100% the thing to do. But until he comes east for a showdown at the end of the year to face Flower Alley and Bernadini, hes not going to get the accolades required. I guess thats why we have the Breeders Cup. So until November this will be up in the air.

[Gander]

I agree Mike. Until November this is all pretty much moot, if Flower Alley wins and Lava Man wins (their respected races). Both trainers have excellent paths plotted to get them to November facing very little in the way of true grade 1 horses.

Lets just hope we get them both to the BC healthy. Being a fan of Lava Man, I wouldnt even care if Flower Alley spanked him. Just to see that the matchup came to fruition would be great.

Did I read through all these posts and not see Brass Hat mentioned?
Is he done for the year or what? One bad race and thats it...?

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Did I read through all these posts and not see Brass Hat mentioned?
Is he done for the year or what? One bad race and thats it...?

Because he runs in the Midwest and doesn't have first class competition. <tongue in cheek> . Personally, I love Brass Hat, he is a genuine stayer; I wish he were a colt, so that he could help the breed regain its original reason for being.

My personal peeve with the Whitney is its distance - 9f. That is a prep for a race at the classic distance of 10f. Originally, the Whitney WAS a 10f race (1928-1955, including many of those wins by legends of the breed.) but it had a smaller purse and less status than the Saratoga H (10f) and far less history than the 14f Saratoga Cup (first run 1865), both of which were won by many of those same legendary horses. When Secretariat ran in the Whitney it was still only a G2 and he was using it as a prep for the Travers. Somewhere along the line, the G2 Donn H at 9f, a prep race for the G1 Gulfstream Park H at 10f started to get more emphasis and purse money from the management and became more prominent. Thank goodness the So Cal tracks didn't follow suit.

Races at 9f should not have the same status or weight in championship decisions as 10f races. But good milers can stretch to 9f a lot more easily than they can 10f and so many expensive horses these days are milers....,

[Slewbopper]

Being a grandson of Slew, I love the Lava Man. It is true that he really hasn't beaten anyone, but who else has? Certainly not Flower Alley. Something went wrong with him in that insane Pac classic last summer. I don't think I agree with keeping him on the left coast to run in the HGC and Pac C, both races at 1 1/4 on the dirt. I would love to see him in the Arlington Million and then the Woodward before the Classic. LM, if he stays healthy will be around for a while. It is easy to root for a guy like him.

I find it hard to get excited about Flower Alley. He seems to have a course similar to Ghostzapper mapped out with hopes of being HOY with only four or five starts.....and then off to the breeding shed more than likely. FM might accomplish this goal. I won't be rooting for him if he does meet the LM in the BCC.

I see Bernardini as the possible upsetter of these two. His Preakness was super impressive and Albertrani did the right thing skipping the Belmont, an obsolete race that is really only of great importance to a horse going for the TC. It has taken its toll in the last few years. Smarty never ran again. Birdstone ran once, and Alex never ran again. Empire Maker ran once, and Funny has won one meaningful race in the last three years.

[Gander]

I find it hard to get excited about Flower Alley. He seems to have a course similar to Ghostzapper mapped out with hopes of being HOY with only four or five starts.....and then off to the breeding shed more than likely. FM might accomplish this goal. I won't be rooting for him if he does meet the LM in the BCC.


My sentiments exactly!

[Buffymommy]

This is a really tough thing to ask or predict right now in the middle of the year. Right now I would say Barbaro is HOY. THAT IS AS OF RIGHT NOW 6/27/06. Undefeated and much publicity, no doubt in my mind that he would get it.

Bernardini maybe IF he wins a few more against his elders this year because his Preakness was a very nice race. Flower Alley is one I would like to see more of before I cast him as HOY. As of right now I would put Lava Man above him ONLY IN THAT Lava Man has done more this year.

That is just my opinion though.

[Cajungator26]

How about Brother Derek? Wonder if he can get back in the game and win some major ones?

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

How about Brother Derek? Wonder if he can get back in the game and win some major ones?

I like this horse and I would like to see him run again and win some. I think he is better than his triple crown run showed.

[Nostradamus]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Flower Alley

Is he still running?

[ArlJim78]

Really weak, you're reaching now.

Take your licks man, you were very confident and ****y regarding CQ.
Once you put all your chips in with an opinion like that, you have to be ready to face the music.