The worst pedigree wins the Derby

[Linny]

SS was Mike's third choice despite having been rated low on his pedigree profile.

HOw in hell could any of this possibly matter when there are three sires that start the entire breed? Maybe if you were talking female families I could see maybe, because there you have like 40 choices but no one seems to put all their stock on female families either.

[Linny]

Mike's profiles focus mostly on the female line.

[blackthroatedwind]

Mike Veitch is OK by me. He was a teacher in the Saratoga Junior High when I was a kid and I used to spend lots of time talking to him about racing. He's just another racing fan who helped ruin my life.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by easy goer

HOw in hell could any of this possibly matter when there are three sires that start the entire breed? Maybe if you were talking female families I could see maybe, because there you have like 40 choices but no one seems to put all their stock on female families either.

Those three foundation sires lived a long long time ago...many folks believe that one sire and one dam started the human line and yet genetics are considered important!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Linny

Mike's profiles focus mostly on the female line.

That's what doesn't make sense to me...Street Sense's dam, Bedazzle has seven reines-de-courses in her 5 generation pedigree! Hard to see how anyone who focuses on the dam side and the female influence in general could devalue that pedigree!

Originally Posted by miraja2

That is not what is going on here at all. If someone had come on here BEFORE the Derby and said that Street Sense had the worst 10f pedigree in the field, I guarantee you there would have been people (myself included) that would have set that poster straight.
Looking at pedigrees isn't like looking at a crystal ball. Sure there are plenty of horses that run in a manner contrary to what their pedigree indicates is likely. But Street Sense simply does not have a likely sprinter's pedigree. We are explaining that NOW - instead of before the Derby - only because now is the first time we have heard such insanity.
If people came on here now and said....."Did you know that Street Sense is part donkey?" I would explain to them that he was not. I wouldn't have explained to them that he wasn't part donkey before the race, simply because it never would have occurred to me that anyone would possibly think he was. See my point?

Yes. thats why I am waiting for the analysis before the Preakness.

[Linny]

Pedigree profiling is too general to apply to the Preakness, specifically. The reason for the discussion before the Derby is that a CD you are asking these colts to do something entirely new, stretch to 10f. Most of the Preakness runners will be exiting the Derby, so they have some sort of indicator of routing ability already.
Profiling for distance capacity is a broad study and not likely to say, colt A is better at 10f, colt B is better at 9 1/2. If a horse can win at 10f in G1 company, he may be expected to also be effective at 9 1/2.
In most cases the "new shooters" in the Preakness have already been 9f, so they are only being asked to move on 1/16, not a huge jump.

Pedigree analysis can lead to to see a certain capacity in a horse, ie. run 10f, handle mud etc. It cannot assure you that the horse is good enough to do it in certain company. Any horse can get 10f if you wait long enough. Cowtown Cat ran 10f last Sat. He just did it in about 2:30. Was it because he wan't bred for it, or just not good enough? For ages everyone talked about dosage and how well it "picked Derby winners." What they never mentioned was the tens of thousands of colts with the right dosage to win the Derby who were toiling in maiden claiming races or unstarted all together. They were bred for 10f but too slow to get there.

[Pedigree Ann]

I usually do work-ups of the Derby contenders' pedigrees before the event - that is how I got the nickname 'Pedigree Ann' on the late lamented Road to the Roses message board. Didn't have time to do it this year because I was busy remodeling my kitchen. (The backsplash is up! All I have to do now is grout it, finish the new switchplates and get them up, and it's done!)

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Those three foundation sires lived a long long time ago...many folks believe that one sire and one dam started the human line and yet genetics are considered important!

No one believes that, dude. It's now called a "bottleneck" population. They no longer do the "Eve hypothesis." See R. Cann et al.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by easy goer

No one believes that, dude. It's now called a "bottleneck" population. They no longer do the "Eve hypothesis." See R. Cann et al.

Didn't say I believed it dude!

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I know Mrs Z, I stopped posting a lot of pedigree stuff a few years ago cause frankly most folks aren't that interested and unless you study the stuff, it makes little sense. Besides, folks can go to Dr Roman's site or read other real experts and get a better explanation than I can give. Back when Brock, Dragon and others were here (actually at ESPN) a lot, we had some good threads but there are always those who just don't want to hear it and I respect that...still, I'm not gonna sit back when someone makes a statement that is simply wrong. I believe that stamina does come primarily from the dam side but Street Sense certainly is not suffering in that regard.

ah, the good ole days!!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by brockguy

ah, the good ole days!!

Yeah, I miss a lot of those folks, of course some I don't! Wish I knew what happened to Dragon, even Papa.

[sumitas]

umm, Bedazzled's direct family has no reines de course that i saw. yes, SS is related to Mr Greeley to some degree. but Spectacular Bid's family was often blamed for his lack of success at stud.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by sumitas

umm, Bedazzled's direct family has no reines de course that i saw. yes, SS is related to Mr Greeley to some degree. but Spectacular Bid's family was often blamed for his lack of success at stud.

If you look at Bedazzle's 5 generation pedigree, you'll actually see a total of 12 reines-de-course, I listed the ones in her dam side but the total in her 5 generations is 12:
Nogara
Sister Sarah
Geisha
Flower Bowel
Flower Bed
Boudoir
Miss Disco
Delta Queen
Evening Mist
Teresina
Natalma
Almahmoud

[sumitas]

i'm looking at direct family line, mother to daughter etc., which is clearer to make an evaluation imo. the tail female line.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Yes. thats why I am waiting for the analysis before the Preakness.

Okay. Which Preakness starter should we discuss?