Saturday's Results

[cmorioles]

Usually, when a trainer hits a cold streak, you can figure out why. Maybe they had horses with a lot of conditions left and used them up. Claiming barns sometimes lose a bunch of horses in a short span. Maybe there has been a loss of a big owner or two. Sometimes there is illness in the barn.

In this case, nearly all the horses seem to have gone off form. These horses not only aren't winning, they aren't coming close to living up to the ability the previous PP lines show they have. There is no logical explanation to the slump. Perhaps Todd has lost his drive since lucking into finally winning a TC race.

As a bettor, this is a great thing. As a fan of the sport, it is also a good thing. Having too many horses in one barn isn't good for anyone other than the trainer himself. Mabye this will help change that, though somehow I doubt it.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You mention trying to beat Octave with 4 horses, one of those being Octave herself. What's clear about that? If you hit, good job, but there is nothing clear in your post.

/ = over....

Bear Now over Moon Catcher over Octave , Talking bout Love as in Tri. The only thing wrong here was the second place prediction.

Kind of Byk format....

Originally Posted by GPK

After the cobra venom found in Biancones barn...wonder if others sat up and took notice?

Maybe the labs have caught up with shiat and soon who knows he just might heat up when his people develope the new shiat that passes untill word gets out and atest is found for the new crap or could it be other trainers got his cocktail and table s might be evening a little all that would is 1 groom to get pissed and leave and he was in the know

[sumitas]

that's about right. TP is no wunderkind and his horses are there to make money for the big time owners. Does he cheat ? It starting to look like it isn't it ? Let's keep the testing and regulations going to bring these big time frauds down to reality.

[Hoist Her Flag]

There is something going on. The main thing I notice as a few have mentioned is the "re-breaking". Until I read that on here, I couldn't put a finger on it, but the last few years, his horses have had that "extra" down the stretch, I can't remember the horses name now, but there was a 7 furlong race at GP this winter. The horse dueled the entire 7 furlongs and pulled away late. AGS looked absolutely lethargic down the stretch yesterday. Octave and Fairbanks no extra gear. His 2 YO's have been bad this year so far.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

There is something going on. The main thing I notice as a few have mentioned is the "re-breaking". Until I read that on here, I couldn't put a finger on it, but the last few years, his horses have had that "extra" down the stretch, I can't remember the horses name now, but there was a 7 furlong race at GP this winter. The horse dueled the entire 7 furlongs and pulled away late. AGS looked absolutely lethargic down the stretch yesterday. Octave and Fairbanks no extra gear. His 2 YO's have been bad this year so far.

That's a great point about the "Re-Break"! The re-break has been what has differentiated Pletcher horses from all others. Sorry to join this thread so late, and I'm glad Andy brought this up. I've been thinking about it for a while, but didn't want to be called a "conspiracy theorist".
There is OBVIOUSLY something different with his barn.. and Mr Byck talks with the person who would have the most knowledge of what it is every Tuesday!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I know the majority of Pletcher horses really look like they are missing that added something - but super trainer Steve Asmussen is putting on a dazzling statistical exhibition at Presque Isle Downs.

He's 4-for-73 at the meet - and his record with post time favorites is a remarkable 1-for-30!

In fact, if you take out Catonight (an Asmussen 10K claimer who's 2-for-2 at the meet) - his record is 2-for-71 overall and 0-for-29 with post time favorites.

And it's not like his favorites have been lukewarm ones in wide open claiming races - they've mostly been overwhelming favorites.

I was even thinking of doing a piece about this - but, when you see the takeout rates and how the horse players are being treated here - it's hard to write about something as fluffy and flowery positive as a proven cheater coming off of a six month suspension and burning up enough money to fill the Grand Canyon.

[cmorioles]

If you don't write about this you don't have a hair on your .... errrrr.... head.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Is it the horses ? Does he have the same staff as last year ? Did his suspension change his methods ?

i think that is a good, reasonable question.

[SentToStud]

So what explains the lack of media reporting and opining about the sport's top trainers having far below expected results? Is it just too small a world?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think that is a good, reasonable question.

Staff changes?
Suspension changed training routines?
Horse Quality?
Biancone effect?
Just bad luck? (he did win with a 2 yo on Friday)
Too much focus on big horses?
Criticism not valid (only 7 or 8 weeks and did win $2 mil+ and four Gradeds at Sar)?
Too much time evaluating Kee Sales?
Bug in barn?
Family stuff?
Being such a big operation just caught up?

It's probably a number of factors at play. Who knows which ones. But I'd say the "slump" probably goes on for a while. You can turn a rowboat around in a second. But a ship as big as the one he's driving takes time to turn.

[Linny]

There seems to have long been an image in the media of TAP being some sort of golden boy, a sacred cow. His horses just disappear and no one asks questions. A few years ago he had 3 horses die in non racing related circumstances, at Saratoga. One was G1 winner Left Bank, one was a SW 2yo filly. I never saw a thing in print but "Oh poor Todd" articles.
Part of the problem is that asking tough questions WILL get you denied access to info in the future. Writers for DRF and other outlets may have questions, and allude to them now and again but they will never become Chris Matthews or Bill O'Reilly or they will be barred from covering Todd's return to the golden glow next spring as his 3yo's prepared for the one day that everyone cares about, Derby Day.
On the other hand certain trainers seem to be easy to portray as the bad guys. DWL and Assman are the current men in black. Over the last decade while TAP has seen horses mysteriously vanish from his barn while NOT answering questions, DWL has been demonized as a horse destroyer with nothing but his own interest at hand. DWL, throughout this time has not duck the press and even admitted when he has made mistakes.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

So what explains the lack of media reporting and opining about the sport's top trainers having far below expected results?

I think most of those writers think that they personally have nothing to gain and something to lose if they report on that.

[cmorioles]

What exactly would they lose? A few quotes from Todd himself? Who really gives a ****?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Linny

DWL has been demonized as a horse destroyer.

Because he is one.

But in his case - it's because he handles todays more fragile horses the same way he did when horses could stand up to his training and racing schedule. He hasn't adjusted well.

In his case, I don't think anyone believe it was designer drugs or exotic drugs no one can test for that was causing his horses to fall apart.

[SentToStud]

I think TID and Linny are right.

Anyone who has a family to support and works for a corporation has done the same thing. And I'd guess it's not as easy for a mid-level DRF reporter who does an ok job to land somewhere else as it is for, say, a similarly successful pharmaceutical sales rep.

Crist and Beyer (especially Beyer) will say exactly what's on their mind (or it seems). Lots of Beyer's stuff I really disagree with but I'm glad he says it.

Nothing to gain and lots to lose is a tough job to have.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

What exactly would they lose? A few quotes from Todd himself? Who really gives a ****?

I agree with you and wish they would start asking serious and tough questions.

In Asmussen's case up here, on paper, he has a very strong looking hand again today. Three morning line favorites, and another who figures to vie for favortisim.

If he gets blanked yet again - I'll give my horse players aren't getting treated right onslaught a rest - and focus my unbridled negativity to that. I have no career at this anyway.

[Danzig]

certainly an intriguing situation tho...two trainers who seemingly win anything and everything have both handed well-publicized suspensions, and now both are slumping.
of course that's the easy answer, and there could be many more factors involved. but i think it's a point to be made more so with asmussen, then pletcher. i believe that was pletchers first offense, while it's far from the first time that assmussen got caught with his hand in the illegal cookie jar. harder to believe that the leopard can change his spots overnight, yet six months is some serious time. wouldn't it be nice if everyone went back to just hay, oats and water--the playing field is levelled, and no one has to serve suspensions...it would go back to horsemanship only.

i guess i better pinch myself, i must be dreaming!

[Travis Stone]

I think Andy was most spot-on with how dismal Any Given Saturday looked winning the Brooklyn. You could have told me it was a quintet of $25k claimers coming down the stretch and I would have believed you. They looked pitiful. Maybe it's just a fluke, or maybe the current state of Pletchers barn took out the wow factor of AGS' win. Very interesting.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think all of Pletcher's stakes runners I saw yesterday looked a little flat through the late stages - like they missed that added something.