KY Derby Future Wager (Pool 2) - Page 3

Hickory Hill Hoff · #41 03-09-2008, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's a slow horse, that needs a perfect set up, and then is only good enough if another rider blows it on another slow horse.

Anyone who actually thinks he is remotely close to being a contender for this year's KY Derby is borderline ( if not completely ) clueless.
Next.

Geez.....thanks!

guess I'm clueless

just who are the contenders then may I ask??????????????

We need another forum on this site.... the "Dunce" leader of Knowledge

blackthroatedwind · #42 03-09-2008, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Geez.....thanks!

guess I'm clueless

just who are the contenders then may I ask??????????????

To be blunt, he's the kind of horse that fools novices. He's a perfectly nice horse. But, in order to perform even moderately well he needs absolutely everything to go his own way. His NW1X win, while visually impressive if you don't really analyze races well, was because of an almost astonishingly good trip, while more than a few others got mediocre rides, and mostly aren't that good. To be fair, he didn't really even run much better, if at all, than the distant second finisher Stevil. Now, as much as I root for Nick, I don't think any of us are clamoring to bet him in the Derby. In the Risen Star he had a fairly easy trip, and unless you want to suggest he didn't like running inside, he was decidedly mediocre versus one complete non-contender, and another solid contender. However, Blackberry Road ran a better race than Visionaire did in the Risen Star, and he's too ludicrous to even discuss. However, the major problem with the rail theory would be that Visionaire has actually proven the opposite....he loves running inside. And then there's the Gotham, where he won because another rider gave a horrendous ride, while his rider gave an outstanding ride. If you take all of this apart you have a horse with massively dressed up form that is subsequently undervalued by people who are completely fooled by his form which belies his ability.

My opinion of this horse isn't clever. He's a 50-1 shot, at the very best, in this year's KY Derby. Wow....I'm really going out on a limb. But, he also exemplifies what is annoying to people who actually understand racing when the KY Derby rolls around. If you visit messages boards you constantly read uninformed opinions based on results, or people's bets which they somehow believe elevates a horse's talent, and while for the most part you laugh it off, sometimes you choose to state the obvious.....even when there is no upside.

So, that's my explanation, and that's how I analyze horses.....by how they perform on the track.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #43 03-09-2008, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To be blunt, he's the kind of horse that fools novices. He's a perfectly nice horse. But, in order to perform even moderately well he needs absolutely everything to go his own way. His NW1X win, while visually impressive if you don't really analyze races well, was because of an almost astonishingly good trip, while more than a few others got mediocre rides, and mostly aren't that good. To be fair, he didn't really even run much better, if at all, than the distant second finisher Stevil. Now, as much as I root for Nick, I don't think any of us are clamoring to bet him in the Derby. In the Risen Star he had a fairly easy trip, and unless you want to suggest he didn't like running inside, he was decidedly mediocre versus one complete non-contender, and another solid contender. However, Blackberry Road ran a better race than Visionaire did in the Risen Star, and he's too ludicrous to even discuss. However, the major problem with the rail theory would be that Visionaire has actually proven the opposite....he loves running inside. And then there's the Gotham, where he won because another rider gave a horrendous ride, while his rider gave an outstanding ride. If you take all of this apart you have a horse with massively dressed up form that is subsequently undervalued by people who are completely fooled by his form which belies his ability.

My opinion of this horse isn't clever. He's a 50-1 shot, at the very best, in this year's KY Derby. Wow....I'm really going out on a limb. But, he also exemplifies what is annoying to people who actually understand racing when the KY Derby rolls around. If you visit messages boards you constantly read uninformed opinions based on results, or people's bets which they somehow believe elevates a horse's talent, and while for the most part you laugh it off, sometimes you choose to state the obvious.....even when there is no upside.

So, that's my explanation, and that's how I analyze horses.....by how they perform on the track.

Ok, so who are five contenders (in your opinion) for the "first Saturday in May" ?

Hickory Hill Hoff · #44 03-09-2008, 04:12 PM

Better yet, who are the fast horses on the derby trail?

kentuckyrosesinmay · #45 03-09-2008, 04:36 PM

Good luck getting answers...

I thought Visionaire's Risen Star was his best race because he was taken out of his running style that day and close to the pace. He was really running hard in the stretch of that race.

His GP race didn't show much, and neither did yesterday.

He's not in my top five, but could improve which is why I put the future wager on him. He's better than a lot of these anyway even if he doesn't.

blackthroatedwind · #46 03-09-2008, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Ok, so who are five contenders (in your opinion) for the "first Saturday in May" ?

I'm a full time horseplayer. That means I spend at least five or six hours pretty much everyday preparing for races in the future. That doesn't even include the time I spend during each day playing the horses. Who the contenders are for a race in two months that I probably won't even bet is just of no real interest to me. If someone wants to pay me to take the time to give an honest and well thought out answer to your question then they should feel free to contact me. Otherwise......I just don't care.

The bottom line for this particular KY Derby is that if War Pass stays sound and gets the trip/distance then everyone else is running for second. Both are always big ifs in horse racing but I honestly think Stevie Wonder could figure that out about this year's Derby.

kentuckyrosesinmay · #47 03-09-2008, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm a full time horseplayer. That means I spend at least five or six hours pretty much everyday preparing for races in the future. That doesn't even include the time I spend during each day playing the horses. Who the contenders are for a race in two months that I probably won't even bet is just of no real interest to me. If someone wants to pay me to take the time to give an honest and well thought out answer to your question then they should feel free to contact me. Otherwise......I just don't care.

The bottom line for this particular KY Derby is that if War Pass stays sound and gets the trip/distance then everyone else is running for second. Both are always big ifs in horse racing but I honestly think Stevie Wonder could figure that out about this year's Derby.

I completely disagree. There are three horses at this point that I think would give him a run for his money even at 1 1/8 miles. He may even get beat before the Derby depending on who decides to go up against him. I know one of the ones I am thinking of won't go up against him though for sure before the big dance.

In all of War Pass's races except for his maiden win where he didn't go up against anything special and didn't win by a big margin either, War Pass has always gotten a loose lead. That certainly will not happen in the Derby. I refuse to believe this horse is the second coming of Seattle Slew based on what I have seen from him.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #48 03-09-2008, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm a full time horseplayer. That means I spend at least five or six hours pretty much everyday preparing for races in the future. That doesn't even include the time I spend during each day playing the horses. Who the contenders are for a race in two months that I probably won't even bet is just of no real interest to me. If someone wants to pay me to take the time to give an honest and well thought out answer to your question then they should feel free to contact me. Otherwise......I just don't care.

The bottom line for this particular KY Derby is that if War Pass stays sound and gets the trip/distance then everyone else is running for second. Both are always big ifs in horse racing but I honestly think Stevie Wonder could figure that out about this year's Derby.

Ok, I'll wait with baited breathe on your selections the first Saturday in May.

I'll use "clueless and blind" underneath War Pass in my trifectas for now

blackthroatedwind · #49 03-09-2008, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Ok, I'll wait with baited breathe on your selections the first Saturday in May.

I'll use "clueless and blind" underneath War Pass in my trifectas for now

I know you're just joking around, but I'm simply trying to be honest here, and I know you would prefer that to someone patronizing you.

justindew · #50 03-09-2008, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I know you're just joking around, but I'm simply trying to be honest here, and I know you would prefer that to someone patronizing you.

I, on the other hand, prefer to be patronized by Andy.

blackthroatedwind · #51 03-09-2008, 05:58 PM

I see Visionnaire is now a juicy 22-1 in the Derby pool.

He's over 90% to be higher than that on Derby Day even if he makes it.

blackthroatedwind · #52 03-09-2008, 06:02 PM

Pyro is 7:2. Now there's a real laugher. If War Pass falls apart, and he wins his next prep, and makes the Derby, he doesn't rate to be below 3:1.

I would like to give 4:1 on Pyro for up to $5K. It's pretty much an even money proposition in a worst case scenerio and free money the majority of the time. Funny.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #53 03-09-2008, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm a full time horseplayer. That means I spend at least five or six hours pretty much everyday preparing for races in the future. That doesn't even include the time I spend during each day playing the horses. Who the contenders are for a race in two months that I probably won't even bet is just of no real interest to me. If someone wants to pay me to take the time to give an honest and well thought out answer to your question then they should feel free to contact me. Otherwise......I just don't care.

The bottom line for this particular KY Derby is that if War Pass stays sound and gets the trip/distance then everyone else is running for second. Both are always big ifs in horse racing but I honestly think Stevie Wonder could figure that out about this year's Derby.

full time prime time yo'

justindew · #54 03-09-2008, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I see Visionnaire is now a juicy 22-1 in the Derby pool.

He's over 90% to be higher than that on Derby Day even if he makes it.

Agreed.

I set the over/under on the number of Derby entrants who go off at less than 10-1 at 2.

blackthroatedwind · #55 03-09-2008, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Agreed.

I set the over/under on the number of Derby entrants who go off at less than 10-1 at 2.

If that's your opinion then 2 1/2 is the right number.

Danzig · #56 03-09-2008, 06:05 PM

just how good is pyro anyway? i just have doubts, the more i look at the field he beat yesterday. i thought he looked good doing it, but he should have looked good beating the others who hit the board. visionaires win yesterday is supposed to flatter pyro, but i don't think you can really go by that mess of a race at AQU yesterday...

blackthroatedwind · #57 03-09-2008, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

just how good is pyro anyway? i just have doubts, the more i look at the field he beat yesterday. i thought he looked good doing it, but he should have looked good beating the others who hit the board. visionaires win yesterday is supposed to flatter pyro, but i don't think you can really go by that mess of a race at AQU yesterday...

If you equate Pyro's talent to what Visionaire did yesterday I think it drops him down a peg or two.