Derby Grid/Graded Earnings

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It's better than I. I made 2 futures, Elysium Fields and Denis of Cork.

I'll say this, if Denis of Cork gets in, you have a much better shot then I would.

Honestly though, and this might be nuts, but I might use Anak for 3rd and 4th if I get involved in those types of wagers, I haven't seen his pattern but it has to be forward moving, and while his races have been questionable, he at least is making moves and he is bred for 10 panels

I have absolutely no clue about this year, it is so bad that even I can't have an opinion, and I usually have an opinion on everything

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

Honestly though, and this might be nuts, but I might use Anak for 3rd and 4th if I get involved in those types of wagers, I haven't seen his pattern but it has to be forward moving, and while his races have been questionable, he at least is making moves and he is bred for 10 panels

I have absolutely no clue about this year, it is so bad that even I can't have an opinion, and I usually have an opinion on everything

He also ran his only semi-decent race at Churchill. At this point if you have any horse that you think can get 10 furlongs and could step up and run a 95 Beyer you have to take the shot. You'll never see another $2 million race where a 95 Beyer could get you in the money. If nothing else it assures Zito of one less pace horse for War Pass to contend with.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He also ran his only semi-decent race at Churchill. At this point if you have any horse that you think can get 10 furlongs and could step up and run a 95 Beyer you have to take the shot. You'll never see another $2 million race where a 95 Beyer could get you in the money. If nothing else it assures Zito of one less pace horse for War Pass to contend with.

And honestly, I think that might be the ploy here, keeps Bob's Blackjack with the insane idea of putting blinkers on this horse. Talk about tinkering with something at the wrong time.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

And honestly, I think that might be the ploy here, keeps Bob's Blackjack with the insane idea of putting blinkers on this horse. Talk about tinkering with something at the wrong time.

Retards. Horse is the WORLD RECORD HOLDER at 6F... what the hell does he need blinkers for a 10F race for?!?

Anak Nakal is improving? Well... i guess that's technically a true statement, he couldn't have gotten any worse!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

They can finish:

1. Behindatthebar/Racecar/etc..
2. Atoned
3. Tomcito

and the Visionaire would be in trouble too..

By my math, Visionaire looks pretty safe, I don't see any way that anyone in the Lexington could get to 202k in graded earnings. But those bottom two look to be in trouble, and quite honestly, who is to say that if Salute the Sarge runs big that they wont go, all this Derby needs is Nick Hines running around to be an official circus.

This is obviously dependent on those 'X's not running, because then Visionaire could be in trouble then, especially if Racecar wins, and Atoned gets second....

[Alan07]

Expect alot of the Derby excluders to run in the Preakness

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Kasept

They can finish:

1. Behindatthebar/Racecar/etc..
2. Atoned
3. Tomcito

and the Visionaire would be in trouble too..

Thanks, Steve, for the great news that the third of my four Future bets might not make it into the Derby. After making Future bets for the first time this year, I think I'll go back to not making 'em (too much unnecessary stress).

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Scav

By my math, Visionaire looks pretty safe, I don't see any way that anyone in the Lexington could get to 202k in graded earnings. But those bottom two look to be in trouble, and quite honestly, who is to say that if Salute the Sarge runs big that they wont go, all this Derby needs is Nick Hines running around to be an official circus.

This is obviously dependent on those 'X's not running, because then Visionaire could be in trouble then, especially if Racecar wins, and Atoned gets second....

According to DRF, winner's share of the Lexington Stakes is $201,500. This means Racecar Rhapsody and Behindatthebar, as well as Tomcito and Atoned could bump Visionaire (like Steve wrote).

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Unstable

According to DRF, winner's share of the Lexington Stakes is $201,500. This means Racecar Rhapsody and Behindatthebar, as well as Tomcito and Atoned could bump Visionaire (like Steve wrote).

I don't think it is possible for him to be bumped by three though if Salute the Sarge doesn't run. Worst case he would only be passed by the winner and Tomcito with a second place finish. Tomcito couldn't pass him with a 3rd place finish nor could anyone else.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Unstable

Thanks, Steve, for the great news that the third of my four Future bets might not make it into the Derby. After making Future bets for the first time this year, I think I'll go back to not making 'em (too much unnecessary stress).

This is the first year I've ever played a future wager because I always hated the way Churchill did their pool and never felt like I could get the odds I wanted. Was in Vegas for the HPWS and decided to play one. Granted, I feel like sort of an idiot right now because I am stuck with Cowboy Cal at only 50-1. I was hoping he wouldn't be such a crapshoot come Derby time, but at least he got in so I have the action.

I guess that's why I find it fun this year. I imagine, had I gone with my original thought of playing Unbridled Vicar at 200-1 after he ran second to Denis of Cork, I would be having much less fun with it right now like you are.

I'm with Scav -- at least I've got action, and anything can happen I guess.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Unstable

According to DRF, winner's share of the Lexington Stakes is $201,500. This means Racecar Rhapsody and Behindatthebar, as well as Tomcito and Atoned could bump Visionaire (like Steve wrote).

yeah I am wrong, I transposed Byk's number on the thing, I thought it was 165, but it is 195.....

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I say 3 year old graded earnings should be worth twice as much as two year old. . . First 15 get in that way. . . Then a "promoter's option" for the last five where a panel of experts chooses. . .

I like the idea but limit the field to only the main starting gate and not the add on gate. Also set up an AE list in case a trainer scratches out.

[Scav]

Let the circus begin..

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44612

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Scav

Let the circus begin..

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44612

Guillot has been saying for weeks and even before Salute the Sarge's comeback race that he was probably going to run the Derby if Signature Move failed because Southern Equine is determined to have a Derby starter this year. I would assume that if the horse doesn't completely embarrass himself in the Lexington that he will definitely go.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

I like the idea but limit the field to only the main starting gate and not the add on gate. Also set up an AE list in case a trainer scratches out.

you're idea is good. we just need to survey more people on the internet to see what they want.

because 20 horses with the most graded stakes earnings is too complex.

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

This is the first year I've ever played a future wager because I always hated the way Churchill did their pool and never felt like I could get the odds I wanted. Was in Vegas for the HPWS and decided to play one. Granted, I feel like sort of an idiot right now because I am stuck with Cowboy Cal at only 50-1. I was hoping he wouldn't be such a crapshoot come Derby time, but at least he got in so I have the action.

I guess that's why I find it fun this year. I imagine, had I gone with my original thought of playing Unbridled Vicar at 200-1 after he ran second to Denis of Cork, I would be having much less fun with it right now like you are.

I'm with Scav -- at least I've got action, and anything can happen I guess.

I was hoping to get all my Future bet horses in the race, even if they didn't look like the obvious winner (higher odds). The one horse I bet in Pool 1 is out of there. But two of the three horses I bet in Pool 2 are in, with a possibility of the third, depending on what happens this week-end. I didn't bet much, so it's no great loss. And I have to admit that, once I knew that they were in, it was pretty fun. Every time someone talks about one of "my horses" having a shot, I get a little excited.

I think I'll try to limit myself next year (assuming there is still a Future bet) to what worked this year: bet horses that run the week-end after the close of Pool 2. That way the odds are still big and the bandwagon is relatively empty.

[Scav]

Lets go Bykster, hook us up with some updated earnings and defections

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Scav

Lets go Bykster, hook us up with some updated earnings and defections

I may have read here that BYK is at the track in Lexington. I imagine he's trying to find a way to post right now, but at this point the aisles are slick with vomit and pandemonium has broken out in anticipation of the most wide open, crazy Derby ever!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Mike

I may have read here that BYK is at the track in Lexington. I imagine he's trying to find a way to post right now, but at this point the aisles are slick with vomit and pandemonium has broken out in anticipation of the most wide open, crazy Derby ever!

Byk has 30 hours in a day, I would almost guarantee that he will have it updated by about 7pm CST

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Scav

Lets go Bykster, hook us up with some updated earnings and defections

From Downeyprofile.com website

Last Updated April 19, 2008

1 Pyro 1,020,000
2 Tale of Ekati 738,000
3 Colonel John 720,000
4 Gayego 640,000
5 Big Brown 600,000
6 Z Humor 579,000
7 Monba 515,000
8 Court Vision 331,872
9 Z Fortune 329,000
10 Adriano 310,000
11 Recapturetheglory 300,000
12 Smooth Air 290,000
13 Salute the Sarge 258,940
14 Cool Coal Man 212,767
15 Anak Nakal 212,216
16 Eight Belles (f) 210,000
17 Cowboy Cal 207,660
18 Behindatthebar 204,500
19 Visionaire 202,500
20 Big Truck 194,500
21 Bob Black Jack 180,000
22 Denis of Cork 165,000

I would consider the following 3 horses questionable:
Salute the Sarge (finished 7th in the Lexington),
Eight Belles (would be the favorite in the Oaks),
Behindatthebar (the owner was interviewed on TVG after the race and was not committal about the Derby -- the horse ran back today after 16 days and would come back to the Derby in 14 days and has questionable dirt form based on his 5th place finish in the El Camino Real).

Bob Black Jack makes the field if one of the above 3 defect or an injury occurs to another horse.

Denis of Cork (who I would love to see Calvin Borel on for the Derby at high odds) makes the field if 2 of the above 3 defect or if one of the above defects and an injury occurs to another horse on the list.