Eight Belles & Proud Spell

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Both should go in the Oaks......this is crazy!

[Danzig]

i don't think it's crazy Hx3. you won't know if you don't try. eight belles had everything go wrong in her last, and still won. i bet she got a lot more out of that race than pyro and cool coal man got out of the bluegrass....
as for the rules for entering, i think the derby needs reworking big time. but i don't think porter should get blasted either. he's going to take a shot, but will also do what he thinks is best for his horses-which you don't often see. he wants a chance, but not if he thinks his gals will be compromised too badly to take that chance.

but then again, i'm biased in that i think the field is too dammed big anyway.

[hockey2315]

Eight Belles will not win the derby. But if they want to enter her, they should just do it and not enter both.

[dylbert]

Many thoughts, ideas, issues, and complaints have been aired on this thread, this forum, and other forums about Kentucky Derby this year.

The primary fact remains that Churchill Downs makes the rules. CD will continue to use rules that work for them. If 20-horse race handle is $118 million or 18-horse race handle is $118 million, does CD care? NOPE.

Horseplayers can continue to discuss and attempt to influence CD. However, changing the course of a glacier may be simpler task than changing selection process for Kentucky Derby.

Personally, I would favor field size reduction. Smaller field such as fourteen starters would eliminate some of the inequities of 20-horse field. I know of no other North American race that has 20 starters. Bad posts, chaos, bad racing luck, tiring horses, and other factors take away from true competition.

Is real champion going to emerge from 2008 Derby? Or is "son of Giacomo" going to clunk up at the wire? The answer arrives during most exciting two minutes in sports on first Saturday in May.

[hockey2315]

The Turf Economist has spoken, Hoss. Take heed.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I hope they both enter and get drilled.
I'm not sure if I would bet either of these fillies to win the oaks, much less give them a shot in the derby.

Rags to Riches was a non-brainer to enter the Belmont last year, based on destroying the field in the Oaks and her pedigree.

Proud Spell's last race wasn't exactly impressive, and Eight Belles had to run extremely hard to beat a small field in the Fantasy at Oaklawn.
Good fillies no doubt, but for both to try to derby is silly.

It's your call, but I'm not going to hold a poly track effort against her.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Both should go in the Oaks......this is crazy!

i agree. let the folks waste time speculating. if you think either one of these horses has a shot . well, good luck to ya ! it happens like once a generation. and many times ends in disaster for the filly . and these 2 are not even that good!

[Linny]

These fillies may not be much bit they don't have to beat much either. I think that alot of the problems could be solved by adding AE's.

Long term I'd prefer the weighting of earnings so 3yo and route earnings count more than 2yo or sprint earnings. As the threshold has gone up (about $200k this year) we are seeing colts without a win this year (Z Humor, Anak Nakal) keeping out horses like Big Truck (G3 win) Bob Black Jack (2nd in G1SA Derby) etc. I'm not crazy about Bob Black Jack but he was 3rd in the San Felipe and 2nd in the SA Derby. That's not dreadful yet he's still outside. (I won't go near DoC because I agree with his owner that serious errors were made. He should be in.)

The rising "minimum" graded earnings may force trainers to actually race these colts in the future. Case in poiunt: Atoned. I was not a fan of this horse last year but he ran well in the Remsen after nearly falling. Pletcher maps out a 2 race schedule for him despite the fact that he had only $40k in 2yo graded earnings. The first race is the TBD which was already the announced return race for War Pass. Not being able to foresee WP's debacle, this race as the look of a "give him a race" effort, hoping for 2nd and about $60k. WP flounders but Atoned runs well for 2nd any how to a horse who was well back of him in the Remsen. Atoned is bred for a route and may have needed the return, after all I doubt Todd had him cranked hard for a race in which he figured he was running for place. His next stop is the quirky Hawthorne track. Kind to speed and favorable to certain horses for course the closing Atoned has no shot. Like DoC's folks they probably figured that the Ill. Derby was the easiest of that round of preps and with $500k up for grabs it looked like a good spot. WRONG. Now, Recapuretheglory is in you Atoned is out, way out. Had they run third in the Wood he'd have earned $45k more. Out of desperation they plunk him in the Lexington 2 weeks later. He hates the Poly and since Todd's horses are coddled and he's not used to running on 2 weeks rest.
I am not saying he was the Derby winner and was kept out but Atoned had the look of a colt who could have developed more. Why wait for the TBD with a colt who carries so little in 2yo earnings? Why plot a 2 race course where one stumble may cost you a Derby berth? He went 9f at 2 so why not run in allowance prep and then a GP stakes like the FOY? Why not prep in a graded race like the Hutchison? I think so many trainers are so focused on having a fresh horse for the Derby that they forget tp do what it takes to get them in the gate.

[SniperSB23]

If they are going to stick with graded earnings then why bother with the random order for selection of Derby posts? Just go straight down the list giving the top horse on the earnings list first pick of post. It would encourage everyone to race their horses more and take advantage of races like the Hutcheson or Swale to get some extra earnings and assure the best horses don't get compromised by crappy post positions.

[Cannon Shell]

Holy ****...ideas that make sense

[MisterB]

I prefer shooting fingers, but you must have all fingers attached to qualify.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Linny

These fillies may not be much bit they don't have to beat much either. I think that alot of the problems could be solved by adding AE's.

Long term I'd prefer the weighting of earnings so 3yo and route earnings count more than 2yo or sprint earnings. As the threshold has gone up (about $200k this year) we are seeing colts without a win this year (Z Humor, Anak Nakal) keeping out horses like Big Truck (G3 win) Bob Black Jack (2nd in G1SA Derby) etc. I'm not crazy about Bob Black Jack but he was 3rd in the San Felipe and 2nd in the SA Derby. That's not dreadful yet he's still outside. (I won't go near DoC because I agree with his owner that serious errors were made. He should be in.)

The rising "minimum" graded earnings may force trainers to actually race these colts in the future. Case in poiunt: Atoned. I was not a fan of this horse last year but he ran well in the Remsen after nearly falling. Pletcher maps out a 2 race schedule for him despite the fact that he had only $40k in 2yo graded earnings. The first race is the TBD which was already the announced return race for War Pass. Not being able to foresee WP's debacle, this race as the look of a "give him a race" effort, hoping for 2nd and about $60k. WP flounders but Atoned runs well for 2nd any how to a horse who was well back of him in the Remsen. Atoned is bred for a route and may have needed the return, after all I doubt Todd had him cranked hard for a race in which he figured he was running for place. His next stop is the quirky Hawthorne track. Kind to speed and favorable to certain horses for course the closing Atoned has no shot. Like DoC's folks they probably figured that the Ill. Derby was the easiest of that round of preps and with $500k up for grabs it looked like a good spot. WRONG. Now, Recapuretheglory is in you Atoned is out, way out. Had they run third in the Wood he'd have earned $45k more. Out of desperation they plunk him in the Lexington 2 weeks later. He hates the Poly and since Todd's horses are coddled and he's not used to running on 2 weeks rest.
I am not saying he was the Derby winner and was kept out but Atoned had the look of a colt who could have developed more. Why wait for the TBD with a colt who carries so little in 2yo earnings? Why plot a 2 race course where one stumble may cost you a Derby berth? He went 9f at 2 so why not run in allowance prep and then a GP stakes like the FOY? Why not prep in a graded race like the Hutchison? I think so many trainers are so focused on having a fresh horse for the Derby that they forget tp do what it takes to get them in the gate.

it's why i have said more than once that 2 yo earnings shouldn't count. if filly restricted races shouldn't count according to some, then no 2 yo race should count. the race is for three year olds, so the best THREE yo's should be the ones getting in--not the ones who were best the year before.

[cakes44]

There's always going to be horses that don't belong if you base it on earnings. If it was changed to to 3-year-old earnings, how long do you think it would be before Delta Downs moves the Jackpot to a month later?

[lemoncrush]

eight belles hasn't been further than 1-16, nor has she faced any of the other top 5 or 6 fillies in her class (Pure Clan perhaps is the only one with serious credentials).
She could turn out to be an incredible filly, but saying she absolutley belongs in the derby after beating up on small and suspect fields at Oaklawn and Fairgrounds this winter, it's a bit of a stretch.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cakes44

There's always going to be horses that don't belong if you base it on earnings. If it was changed to to 3-year-old earnings, how long do you think it would be before Delta Downs moves the Jackpot to a month later?

that's fine, move what you need to move if you wish. i believe they'd lose their grading then, since the conditions of the race would change.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

eight belles hasn't been further than 1-16, nor has she faced any of the other top 5 or 6 fillies in her class (Pure Clan perhaps is the only one with serious credentials).
She could turn out to be an incredible filly, but saying she absolutley belongs in the derby after beating up on small and suspect fields at Oaklawn and Fairgrounds this winter, it's a bit of a stretch.

Her breeding doesnt exactly scream 1 1/4 either

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Danzig

...eight belles had everything go wrong in her last, and still won.

She went 2 wide going into the first turn, was 1 length off a 3/4 in 1:12+, and went 3 wide into the stretch. Gayego would have won that race by 5 or 6.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cakes44

She went 2 wide going into the first turn, was 1 length off a 3/4 in 1:12+, and went 3 wide into the stretch. Gayego would have won that race by 5 or 6.

hopped at the start, is a front runner who was last early. she faced more than just being a bit wide. and learned that she could come from off the pace (at a front-runner favoring track) which is not something that can be said about some of her male competition.
as i said, with her figs, she fits in. i never said she'd win-nor did i pick her up in the last rttr offering.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Danzig

hopped at the start, is a front runner who was last early. she faced more than just being a bit wide. and learned that she could come from off the pace (at a front-runner favoring track) which is not something that can be said about some of her male competition.
as i said, with her figs, she fits in. i never said she'd win-nor did i pick her up in the last rttr offering.

You and I are just seeing that trip quite a bit differently. There is no denying that she most certainly is NOT a front-runner though.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

eight belles hasn't been further than 1-16, nor has she faced any of the other top 5 or 6 fillies in her class (Pure Clan perhaps is the only one with serious credentials).
She could turn out to be an incredible filly, but saying she absolutley belongs in the derby after beating up on small and suspect fields at Oaklawn and Fairgrounds this winter, it's a bit of a stretch.

The fact that NO ONE in the entire Derby field has a higher average last four Beyers than her says to me she wouldn't be out of place in the Derby at all. If she were male she'd be the third or fourth favorite. Plus, has anyone in this field beat a horse coming off a 100+ Beyer as a 3yo? Eight Belles has done that too.