Eight Belles form

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

First of all - in RTG's case - you have one big race (which happened to be a win over an inside-speed biased track while setting a slow pace) That giant jump-up had more to do with pace and trip and even if you want to pretend that number was a legit indication of how well he ran. It also hasn't been repeated over and over.

It was also his first dirt race at age 3. There was a 5 month gap between that race in his prior dirt start.

In his prior dirt race, he was 2nd beaten 2 lengths to Cool Coal Man with a career top 86 Beyer.

You are right, RTG jumped 16 points to a new top in the Ill Derby. However, it was only his 3rd lifetime dirt start, and his first in 5 months, and he had an uncontested lead over an inside speed track while setting a slow pace.

That was a horrible analogy. Alina would have been much better...even though she was trainer change and layoff like Cantrel.

[10 pnt move up]

There are just certain trainers we see this with constantly in the midwest and east coast........I honestly dont recall a figure jump like this in socal at the stakes level? DrugS do you?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

First of all - in RTG's case - you have one big race (which happened to be a win over an inside-speed biased track while setting a slow pace) That giant jump-up had more to do with pace and trip and even if you want to pretend that number was a legit indication of how well he ran - it hasn't been repeated over and over.
It was also his first dirt race at age 3. There was a 5 month gap between that race in his prior dirt start.

In his prior dirt race, he was 2nd beaten 2 lengths to Cool Coal Man with a career top 86 Beyer.

You are right, RTG jumped 16 points to a new top in the Ill Derby. However, it was only his 3rd lifetime dirt start, and his first in 5 months, and he had an uncontested lead over an inside speed track while setting a slow pace.

That was a horrible analogy. Alina would have been much better...even though she was trainer change and layoff like Cantrel.

I fished and you bit. OF COURSE RTG's explosion was due to pace and trip, we know that because it was so plainly obvious. Note the pace in Eight Belles' 12/23 race... they went 1:14 to 6F. 4 weeks later, they went 1:12 4/5 (so on raw time, 7.5 lengths faster) and she was uncontested in the stretch.

Basically you're implying that based on the chain of events, Larry Jones is cheating, with some type of snake venom concoction or something, especially with the comparison to Lake. I didn't want to come out and say that but that's the impression that I get. Please tell me I'm reading your statements incorrectly.

[ArlJim78]

I'm at work and going from memory, but this is I think a fairly accurate recreation of her tg#'s. there is gradual development over the first five races.
then she shoots all the way over to 1's and o's. normally when you go from a 7 to a 1 there is a pullback (dare I say bounce) at some point, some regression. Her chart just looks odd. I don't claim that there was any cheating, its just really odd. I'm guessing on the derby number, but it had to be at least a zero or one.

derby?...........0
9th race .......1
8th race........1
7th race........0
6th race........1
5th race............................7
4th race..............................8
3rd race................................10
2nd race..................................13
1st race....................................14

also someone mentioned the bris numbers and I think they were looking at the final speed. In addition to the final speed her first and second call pace numbers jumped a lot on that 6th race.

[horseofcourse]

I mentioned Lawyer Ron...here are his first 6 races...

53, 55, 49, 83, 78, 78

then his next 6 pre-Derby

92, 97, 106, 95, 94, 98.

Same trainer, zero layoff. He also did suffer a minor injury in the Derby I believe.

I guess he could be explained away by his first 6 were on turf or poly and his second 6 all on dirt. (Actually his 83 was on a muddy dirt.). But I would certainly say a big change in form without question. I don't think his first 6 are stating future eclipse winner however. But you actually have TWO jumps in form from his first 3 to his second 3...then from those 3 to his next 6. You go from average low 50s his first 3 to average around 80 his next three to average in the high 90s his next 6.

Don't young horses often just improve sometimes with no layoff as this one did twice??

[freddymo]

DrugS the filly broke down I don't believe she was drugged into thinking she was fine. Beyer maybe right that the breed is becoming more and more fragile. This move up drug theory is really highly spectulative if you ask me... By all accounts Jones is one of the good guys?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I fished and you bit. OF COURSE RTG's explosion was due to pace and trip, we know that because it was so plainly obvious. Note the pace in Eight Belles' 12/23 race... they went 1:14 to 6F. 4 weeks later, they went 1:12 4/5 (so on raw time, 7.5 lengths faster) and she was uncontested in the stretch.

Basically you're implying that based on the chain of events, Larry Jones is cheating, with some type of snake venom concoction or something, especially with the comparison to Lake. I didn't want to come out and say that but that's the impression that I get. Please tell me I'm reading your statements incorrectly.

I am not implying anything. I am not overly subtle and don't post in code.

If you think Eight Belles had sneaky 2yo form - I can only say I strongly disagree. I watched those races and studied the charts of surrounding races. She was mediocre in those races.

As for her 6th race, she ran 20 points faster (11.5 lengths better) than a colt who finished 2nd in a Graded Stake next out.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I am not implying anything. I am not overly subtle and don't post in code.

If you think Eight Belles had sneaky 2yo form - I can only say I strongly disagree. I watched those races and studied the charts of surrounding races. She was mediocre in those races.

As for her 6th race, she ran 20 points faster (11.5 lengths better) than a colt who finished 2nd in a Graded Stake next out.

Then again... she proved on track how superior she is to every colt in this crop, save one.

I don't know if she had sneaky 2YO form or not. I do know she ran 5 very good, not spectacular, races in a row... regardless of what happened prior to that.

I'm glad that's not what you're shooting at, thanks for refuting.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm at work and going from memory, but this is I think a fairly accurate recreation of her tg#'s. there is gradual development over the first five races.
then she shoots all the way over to 1's and o's. normally when you go from a 7 to a 1 there is a pullback (dare I say bounce) at some point, some regression. Her chart just looks odd. I don't claim that there was any cheating, its just really odd. I'm guessing on the derby number, but it had to be at least a zero or one.

derby?...........0
9th race .......1
8th race........1
7th race........0
6th race........1
5th race............................7
4th race..............................8
3rd race................................10
2nd race..................................13
1st race....................................14

also someone mentioned the bris numbers and I think they were looking at the final speed. In addition to the final speed her first and second call pace numbers jumped a lot on that 6th race.

Her 6th race represented a career top of 10.94 lengths on Thoro-Graph figures. On Beyer figures, it was a 12.75 length career top.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The only form reversal Lawyer Ron showed was he was MUCH better on dirt than poly or turf. His first dirt race he ran a 83 and then his next dirt race he ran a 92. Hardly a huge reversal, however compared to his turf or poly numbers it might look that way.

Yep, Lawyer Ron couldn't get out of his own way in his synthetic track races early on.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yep, Lawyer Ron couldn't get out of his own way in his synthetic track races early on.

your PM box is full dude

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The only form reversal Lawyer Ron showed was he was MUCH better on dirt than poly or turf. His first dirt race he ran a 83 and then his next dirt race he ran a 92. Hardly a huge reversal, however compared to his turf or poly numbers it might look that way.

His form jump when staying on grass or poly was more significant...he ran around 50s his first 3 then around 80 his next 3. He was running around 80 on turf after his dirt race compared to the low 50s. He improved 15-20 lengths on turf/poly...more than his improvement going from turf to dirt. He showed a significant form increase. I said it can be all explained away by anything. You can pick and choose any numbers that exist to defend any stance you want to take on Eight Belle's improvement.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

your PM box is full dude

He PMs himself to stash away porn links he doesn't want his parents to see.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I E-mail my parents porn links for the fun of it.

I am not ashamed.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Now I know what Morty feels like.

Geez. I'm simply not sure of the DrugS point here. Young horses improve significantly all the time. I'm not quite sure how unusual significant form jumps are in young horses...and he showed one of them...BEFORE going to all dirt racing.

summation...

LR

first 3 1 turf/2 poly...low 50s
2nd 3 1 mud/2 turf...80
next 6 dirt...high 90s.

[sumitas]

There should be an autopsy performed on 8 Belles. With toxicology tests.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by sumitas

There should be an autopsy performed on 8 Belles. With toxicology tests.

I don't know that will happen. But you did remind me of a great "Quincy, M.E." episode called, I believe, When Luck Runs Out where a horse Quincy bet on (and cashed!) drops dead an hour later. And, yes, Quincy did utter, "I don't think this horse died of natural causes." Perhaps the PETA Directors are watching that episode today.

[sumitas]

And maybe we all viewed this Kentucky Derby.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

He PMs himself to stash away porn links he doesn't want his parents to see.

GREAT IDEA..