Beyer still not sold on Big Brown

[lemoncrush]

I've only been watching horse racing seriously on a national level for about 5 years, so I give up a lot of experience and wisdom to many on here. But if you watch all of Big Brown races, you have to be an idiot to not be impressed with the ease and brilliance he demonstrates when he runs.

GhostZapper is probably the best horse I've seen in the past 5 years, but it seemed he never coasted to victory, instead always having to work for it (granted, he didn't exude his greatness until he was an older horse).

I just think horses that can destroy large grade 1 fields with relative ease on dirt over and over again like Big Brown should be appreciated for how rare of an accomplishment that is, rather than ridiculued.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I've only been watching horse racing seriously on a national level for about 5 years, so I give up a lot of experience and wisdom to many on here. But if you watch all of Big Brown races, you have to be an idiot to not be impressed with the ease and brilliance he demonstrates when he runs.

GhostZapper is probably the best horse I've seen in the past 5 years, but it seemed he never coasted to victory, instead always having to work for it (granted, he didn't exude his greatness until he was an older horse).

I just think horses that can destroy large grade 1 fields with relative ease on dirt over and over again like Big Brown should be appreciated for how rare of an accomplishment that is, rather than ridiculued.

I agree with everything you said here.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Freedy not to start an arguement but expert handicapper's do not use BSF to be honest most of the time they are useless to them. Go check out what BB ran on the sheets on thorograph he Ran a -4 1/2 which is the best number in the history since Thorograph started doing the derby OK if you don't Like Jerry Brown (I do) and Thorograph.

Go check out the Rag SHeets he ran a -1 which is the best number in the history of Ragozin's since they started doing the Derby. SO to say BB is not fast is totally not true IMO ROund Pen

Was BB the OVERWHELMING pick of the sheets BEFORE the Derby?

[The Bid]

TFM,

Ive seen horses move up and down 4-5 points on sheet numbers depending what they do in their next start. They are a joke.

[Bobby Fischer]

Wait, the racing world doesn't rotate around the BSF?

I do agree with Beyer's safe, and general quotes about Big Brown and the crop.

Fast?
As far as top speed, acelleration, and tactical speed - Brown is a star in most any era. Compared with the big3 of 2007, none of them match his ability in these three measures of speed.

Big Brown's cruising speed or the speed that he comfortably gallops/races is near or equal to Hard Spun. His natural ability rivals Curlin. His response to KD is the equal of Street Sense/Borel.

Big Brown obviously isn't a grinder or a slow closer. He is a speedy talent who runs his mediocre competition off the track on the turn.

While Brown hasn't yet faced a true Grade I horse, he has spotted the field "queen odds" in the Florida Derby with post 12, and then came back with post 20 in Kentucky.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by The Bid

TFM,

Ive seen horses move up and down 4-5 points on sheet numbers depending what they do in their next start. They are a joke.

why is moving 4 or 5 point in there next start make them a joke they are a very useful tool when you are handicapping. THats why most of the biggest Gamblers around incorporate one of the 2 sheets (Thorograph or Rags ) when they are playing the races.

One other note if a 4 or 5 point move is a joke then what would you consider a 30 to 40 point BSF move in a horses next start A Comedy Festival ?????

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Was BB the OVERWHELMING pick of the sheets BEFORE the Derby?

TFM you can go to either Web site thorograph.com or thesheets.com and review there Derby sheets for free you do have to register though.

But to answer your Question BB was the fastest horse going in and I believe if I remember right on thorograph if you took BB on top in the tri's over the horse's that had the next best numbers you would have hit the tri.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I've only been watching horse racing seriously on a national level for about 5 years, so I give up a lot of experience and wisdom to many on here. But if you watch all of Big Brown races, you have to be an idiot to not be impressed with the ease and brilliance he demonstrates when he runs.

GhostZapper is probably the best horse I've seen in the past 5 years, but it seemed he never coasted to victory, instead always having to work for it (granted, he didn't exude his greatness until he was an older horse).

I just think horses that can destroy large grade 1 fields with relative ease on dirt over and over again like Big Brown should be appreciated for how rare of an accomplishment that is, rather than ridiculued.

this is true. but i also see why some people have questions. for one, none of these horses are that fast. hes never been tried. the pace in the derby and preakness was slow. i want to see him win at belmont and i'll be there. but if they retire BB after the belmont, its a cop out. many horses in that race yesterday were eligible for non winners allowance company. come on already, what kind of grade 1 was that ? when horses run against inferior comp , of course they look great. if they quit with this horse in june , no one will ever know how good he is or could of been . bernardini used to look the same way until the waters got deep , which is usually the BC classic.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

TFM you can go to either Web site thorograph.com or thesheets.com and review there Derby sheets for free you do have to register though.

But to answer your Question BB was the fastest horse going in and I believe if I remember right on thorograph if you took BB on top in the tri's over the horse's that had the next best numbers you would have hit the tri.

That may be true, but TG often doesn't like the fastest horse expecting a bounce.

Here was the BB Preakness analysis:

BIG BROWN—ran a giant figure in the Florida Derby, and once we took
into account his wide trip (5w4w), even bigger in the Derby. That negative
4 ¾ was the best Derby performance since we’ve been making figures, and
if this colt runs back to either of his last two he’ll win this easily. But the
first was on 24 days rest, the Derby on five weeks, and now he comes back
on just two weeks rest following extreme exertion, no matter how easy it
looked. This is the same scenario Barbaro faced, and Big Brown has a
history of soundness problems. All of which doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll
break down, but we do expect a significant regression—which doesn’t
necessarily mean he’ll lose. But it does mean he’s vulnerable at a very short
price.

This includes some Derby comments:

BOTTOM LINE---We said before the Derby that Big Brown was the most
likely winner but with only about a 20% chance, and that he had a good
chance to run out of the exotics. Well, he’s the most likely winner of the
Preakness, at about 40%, with about the same chance of running out, So one
approach is to play him to bounce, boxing others in the exotics and shooting
for a big payday.
The Thoro-Graph Race Shape for the Preakness shows that the early
pace will be moderate, and the entire field may be bunched within 10 lengths
around the first turn. This may make it tough for horses drawn outside,
which unfortunately includes some of the longshots we like—Kentucky
Bear, Giant Moon, and Hey Byrn. Behindatthebar drew better, and we would
be inclined to use him heavier. And i t also wouldn’t be a crazy idea to use
Big Brown over those horses in trifectas and superfectas.

[MLC]

The consensus then is that we probably won't know how good he is. The prevailing opinion on this board is that we won't see him after the Belmont. While I wasn't a Bernardini fan: when the waters got deep in the BC Classic, he did not disgrace himself. He ran a good race and was beaten by a better horse.

[Round Pen]

No no I agree CM I was speaking of the Derby IF you took the 6 horses that had just run a 0 under Big Brown you come up with a $3400 Tri

[the_fat_man]

So TG is looking for BB to bounce and Dutrow is blowing him out the morning of the race? Go figure.

[Danzig]

just because big brown won, does not make him a fast horse-just faster than what he faced, which wasn't much. it's a shame that he hasn't faced much of quality, since it lessens whatever he accomplishes. but it's hard to warm up to a horse who just barely breaks three digits in a classic race. i've seen better, tons better. but what can you do?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Danzig

just because big brown won, does not make him a fast horse-just faster than what he faced, which wasn't much. it's a shame that he hasn't faced much of quality, since it lessens whatever he accomplishes. but it's hard to warm up to a horse who just barely breaks three digits in a classic race. i've seen better, tons better. but what can you do?

Sounds like you need a week at a BEYER detox facility.

To loosely quote my good friend Vanderbilt (from F-Troop), asked what type of woman he wanted when O'Rourke and Agarn were ordering mail order brides: "I just want a girl named SHirley; they all look the same to me".

[Bobby Fischer]

speaking of "tons better"

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Danzig

just because big brown won, does not make him a fast horse-just faster than what he faced, which wasn't much. it's a shame that he hasn't faced much of quality, since it lessens whatever he accomplishes. but it's hard to warm up to a horse who just barely breaks three digits in a classic race. i've seen better, tons better. but what can you do?

But if he wins the Belmont winning these three races in the five weeks is quite an accomplishment. We've seen better horses fail.....

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Freedy not to start an arguement but expert handicapper's do not use BSF to be honest most of the time they are useless to them. Go check out what BB ran on the sheets on thorograph he Ran a -4 1/2 which is the best number in the history since Thorograph started doing the derby OK if you don't Like Jerry Brown (I do) and Thorograph.

Go check out the Rag SHeets he ran a -1 which is the best number in the history of Ragozin's since they started doing the Derby. SO to say BB is not fast is totally not true IMO

ROund Pen

Big Brown ran a typical KD BSF period save the mushroom inspired Jerry Brown figs .

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Big Brown ran a typical KD BSF period save the mushroom inspired Jerry Brown figs .

Sheet figures are different from other final time figs because they take wind, weight and ground loss into account.

All the horses in the Derby carried 126lbs - the winners of the other route races carried between 113lbs - to -117lbs. That is reason #1 why Big Brown's figure will come back faster on a sheet style figure.

There was a strong reported stretch head-wind, backstretch tailwind on Derby day - and the 10 furlong Derby was the one race that day that featured the highest proportion of horses racing into the wind versus racing with the wind at their back. That is reason #2 why BB's fig comes back faster on a sheet style scale.

Finally ground loss - BB was hung wide on both turns in the Derby. Reason #3 why it comes back faster on a sheet style fig.

I'm not sure what kind of Ragozin BB got - but I'm sure it also came back more impressive than any non sheet style number had his race.

I think BB's Beyer was souped up a few points because of wind - and it could have been slower. However, on a sheet style figure, BB's race has to come back very fast.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Sheet figures are different from other final time figs because they take wind, weight and ground loss into account.

All the horses in the Derby carried 126lbs - the winners of the other route races carried between 113lbs - to -117lbs. That is reason #1 why Big Brown's figure will come back faster on a sheet style figure.

There was a strong reported stretch head-wind, backstretch tailwind on Derby day - and the 10 furlong Derby was the one race that day that featured the highest proportion of horses racing into the wind versus racing with the wind at their back. That is reason #2 why BB's fig comes back faster on a sheet style scale.

Finally ground loss - BB was hung wide on both turns in the Derby. Reason #3 why it comes back faster on a sheet style fig.

I'm not sure what kind of Ragozin BB got - but I'm sure it also came back more impressive than any non sheet style number had his race.

I think BB's Beyer was souped up a few points because of wind - and it could have been slower. However, on a sheet style figure, BB's race has to come back very fast.

The wind was very real I was there it was blowing like emily

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ceejay

But if he wins the Belmont winning these three races in the five weeks is quite an accomplishment. We've seen better horses fail.....

if

and yeah, it's an accomplishment. but there's no way i'd put this horse on par with many who have won it, or came close but couldn't pull it off for one reason or another.
he's gotta win it first tho.