Dunkirk -- 2 Questions

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

iirc, Wasn't Real Quiet slightly built also?

Yes.

And he was sold for just 17K as a yearling.

[Travis Stone]

Originally I thought 8-1 would not be possible on Dunkirk due to the sheer lack of percentage points to go around. But, looking below, I think it is a pretty fair line:



The above adds-up to 130.8% which is close enough in my opinion. Obviously there are things yet to happen -- Square Eddie for example in the Lexington -- but I assumed he won with this line and I took out Theregoesjojo and Charitable Man and went down Steve's earnings list.

I made Desert Party 12-1 because a lot of public handicappers are picking him, and I think a lot of wise guy 'cappers will as well. I think he has a good shot this year, and felt that was fair.

I think would could happen on this line though is the betting will create a big separation Hold Me Back and Maafaz (who probably doesn't go, but a free $100k is hard to turn down), which will help the top group go down in price.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Is he smallish?

I keep hearing things about his appearance that don't sound consistant with the fact that he was the nations highest priced yearling sold at public auction last year.

Don't you think his price had a lot to do with his pedigree?

Objectivity went for over $6M and Dunkirk went through the ring early enough in Secret Status' broodmare career that no one knew she wasn't getting good runners before Dunkirk.

[Danzig]

i just don't see that the ability of an owner to pay obscene amounts of money in any equates to the purchase having tremendous ability two years after the auction.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah - we'd already have conceded the race to him.

That but there wouldn't be so much hate for a horse who ran second in the Florida Derby. IF there was a different earnings method for entry into the race, say 2-year-old races discounted, than Dunkirk would be in no problem with a second and the entire discussion surrounding him takes on a different tone.

It would go from not whether or not he should run because of this/that, but whether or not he can overcome the current deficit between Quality Road, which I think should be the topic surrounding him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Don't you think his price had a lot to do with his pedigree?

Pedigree obviously had a lot to do with it ... but I would think the nations highest priced yearling would have to look great.

That same year Zensational sold for just $20K as a yearling - and he's by UBS (Dunkirk's sire) out of a multiple stakes winning mare from a great Claibourne family.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

That but there wouldn't be so much hate for a horse who ran second in the Florida Derby. IF there was a different earnings method for entry into the race, say 2-year-old races discounted, than Dunkirk would be in no problem with a second and the entire discussion surrounding him takes on a different tone.

If would go from not whether or not he should run because of this/that, but whether or not he can overcome the current deficit between Quality Road, which I think should be the topic surrounding him.

i'm not a hater. i just think others deserve a better look for the next few weeks than dunkirk.
and i don't think he is better than several horses out there-and i think it would not be in the best interests of the horse to run him in ky, all things considered about him. if he needs easy treatment, and well-spaced races, that's what they should do with him.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Pedigree obviously had a lot to do with it ... but I would think the nations highest priced yearling would have to look great.

That same year Zensational sold for just $20K as a yearling - and he's by UBS (Dunkirk's sire) out of a multiple stakes winning mare from a great Claibourne family.

I don't disagree that he probably looked good, but you've also got so many other things going on behind the scenes that yearling prices are just unreliable.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The nations highest priced yearling at public auction has a pretty good record historically speaking.

Off the top of my head - I believe Majestic Prince, Mr. Prospector, Nureyev, A. P Indy, Forestry, and Fusaichi Pegasus were all Keeneland July yearling sales toppers...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The nations highest priced yearling at public auction has a pretty good record historically speaking.

Off the top of my head - I believe Majestic Prince, Mr. Prospector, Nureyev, A. P Indy, Forestry, and Fusaichi Pegasus were all Keeneland July yearling sales toppers...

I'm definitely not saying Dunkirk is not a good horse, I think he is a very good horse.

Out of curiousity, who are the sale toppers since Fupeg?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Originally I thought 8-1 would not be possible on Dunkirk due to the sheer lack of percentage points to go around. But, looking below, I think it is a pretty fair line:

Nice Job

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'm definitely not saying Dunkirk is not a good horse, I think he is a very good horse.

Out of curiousity, who are the sale toppers since Fupeg?

I definitely not saying that him being the nations highest priced yearling in '07 means anything more than he's probably good looking and correct.

I think Godolphin has bought most of the yearling sales toppers since Fu Peg - but it's not something I follow taht closely.

I think Jalil and Mr. Sakaguchi were the only two who weren't complete and utter no ability bums...

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes.

And he was sold for just 17K as a yearling.

My reference to Real Quiet was not in association with his or anyone elses auction price...

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't think he's small...he does seem somewhat slightly built tho. i wonder tho how many yearlings don't fulfill their early promise?

Danzig seems to have little respect for Dunkirk and at least partly her position seems to be based upon him being "slight built" ...

The point of my reference to Real Quiet was to suggest that slightly built horses should not necessarilly be ruled out.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

what horse that wins the derby will skip the preakness? only a hurt one. its triple crown glory and fever after a horse wins the derby. none of these people are going to pass that up unless the horse is hurt.

Gato del Sol did. Skipped it because he needed more distance, then the Belmont came up sloppy and Conquistador Cielo skipped along on the lead (Gato was second).

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

That but there wouldn't be so much hate for a horse who ran second in the Florida Derby. ...

Two words for you - Blue Burner.

It isn't that he ran second; it was the way he ran second.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Two words for you - Blue Burner.

It isn't that he ran second; it was the way he ran second.

What?!

Blue Burner and Dunkirk, is that the comparison we're going to make?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

My reference to Real Quiet was not in association with his or anyone elses auction price...




Danzig seems to have little respect for Dunkirk and at least partly her position seems to be based upon him being "slight built" ...

The point of my reference to Real Quiet was to suggest that slightly built horses should not necessarilly be ruled out.

but real quiet didn't also exhibit a need to be treated lightly. dunkirk must not be a hearty individual based on his lack of racing at two, and only three starts in his entire career. the slightly built part isn't the problem-his inability to withstand the rigors of training and racing is the problem-especially when you consider the race they are potentially pointing him towards.

[Travis Stone]

I'm not picking Dunkirk to win I don't think, but Big Brown was just as lightly raced last year was he not? The argument you're making is fine, however, it's too broad to apply to all horses. And simply put, it's a rigorous test for all horses.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not picking Dunkirk to win I don't think, but Big Brown was just as lightly raced last year was he not? The argument you're making is fine, however, it's too broad to apply to all horses. And simply put, it's a rigorous test for all horses.

big brown also won the fla derby. i just think, all things considered, dunkirk has too much going against him to be a derby pick. i'm not suggesting he isn't a nice horse, or that he will never win again....i'm thinking only in the context of who has what it takes come may.

[NTamm1215]

There's a big difference between Dunkirk and Big Brown. The importance of BB making a start at 2 cannot be over-stated.

You also can't forget the caliber of competition Big Brown faced vs. what's in store for Dunkirk.

NT