Derby Fever: Where 'stupid' is contagious

[Merlinsky]

It's never an isolated case. Someone else just caught 'stupid'. Folks shook their heads when Mine That Bird was a 'go' and now, it's officially an epidemic. Atomic Rain, if he has the earnings at a nauseatingly low $77,500 from his Remsen placing, is set to go per Kelly Breen of West Side Bernie fame. They're waiting to find out if 4 horses drop out by the looks of it. I'm guessing they don't make it but the fact that they're trying....

Look I know we can't innoculate people from Derby Fever but surely there's like a flu shot thingy where you can get a mild version of it ahead of time right? All Atomic Rain has done is break his maiden. What's his highest Beyer? Old Fashioned got a 100 in the Remsen whilst crushing the aforementioned Atomic Rain. (Yes I'm aware Hold Me Back was in that race but there's all sorts of questions about the form he had there so who knows if you can hold HMB to it.)

[Kasept]

Merlinsky,

I'm surprised by this largely unfair and under-researched comment. His Remsen placing? I think you'll find half his earnings come from the deceptively good and quite courageous 4th he ran in the Wood while his stablemate was running 2nd. Comparing Atomic Rain's Derby intentions to Mine That Bird's is a gross insult to Breen and The Halls. While Atomic Rain doesn't necessarily need to go in the Derby and probably won't get in, he's Alydar compared to Mine That Bird.

And Hold Me Back's Remsen form is not in question... As DrugS has laid out a number of times in his prep analysis, the glacial pace in the Remsen was 100% responsible for him having zero chance to produce any rally.

[King Glorious]

Funny how we look at things. Courageous? Alydar?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Funny how we look at things. Courageous? Alydar?

Yeah. Courageous. Go and watch the Wood. Atomic Rain turned in a terrific effort and had run when he was as blocked midstretch as the winner. Its Atomic Rain that bumped I want Revenge into the path that he used to the lead.

And seeing as how nuance and the comparative allegory need to be explained a second time, Alydar as Derby hopeful when compared to Mine That Bird.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yeah. Courageous. Go and watch the Wood. Atomic Rain turned in a terrific effort and had run when he was as blocked midstretch as the winner. Its Atomic Rain that bumped I want Revenge into the path that he used to the lead.

And seeing as how nuance and the comparative allegory need to be explained a second time, Alydar as Derby hopeful when compared to Mine That Bird.

...sometimes a third

Or a fourth.

Or a tenth.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Merlinsky,

I'm surprised by this largely unfair and under-researched comment. His Remsen placing? I think you'll find half his earnings come from the deceptively good and quite courageous 4th he ran in the Wood while his stablemate was running 2nd. Comparing Atomic Rain's Derby intentions to Mine That Bird's is a gross insult to Breen and The Halls. While Atomic Rain doesn't necessarily need to go in the Derby and probably won't get in, he's Alydar compared to Mine That Bird.

And Hold Me Back's Remsen form is not in question... As DrugS has laid out a number of times in his prep analysis, the glacial pace in the Remsen was 100% responsible for him having zero chance to produce any rally.

He was also 7th in the Sam F. Davis. Ok so I missed the Wood earnings. I did a search but didn't catch it. I watched the Wood again and I'm sorry I just don't see where you look at that and go 'we're going to the Derby!' Now watch him win this thing. He does seem nice enough, but what excuse am I missing that he couldn't manage a top 3 in a graded stake all spring? He was holding position at the end of the Wood but not threatening 3rd place from what I could see. In fairness I do apologize for comparing him to Mine That Bird, it wasn't fair to the horse, nevermind the connections. This is Derby fever, though, and it's questionable to send him unless he's got an excuse, even if it it's a 'he wasn't mentally ready but now he gets it' thing. I don't see how we can ignore that.

[Kasept]

My reaction was more provoked by the ridiculousness of Mine That Bird going than anything else. I hadn't paid any attention to Atomic Rain until multiple viewings of the Wood. I actually was far more interested in West Side Bernie. I think it's apparant in the Wood that Atomic Rain had plenty of traffic to deal with in the stretch and persevered after having been part of the pace from the opening. The three horses that finished ahead of him were all rallying wider while he was pocketed. I didn't give him a thought until seeing how he hung in after things finally opened up in deepest stretch. From my vantage point, that was a very good try.

I certainly can't a fault horse for an off effort at Tampa, and while he may only be an ALW horse when it's said and done, I think he is way more worthy of a Derby slot than a Mine That Bird. We also don't know what Breen is seeing from the horse in these 2 weeks post-Wood. The timing and effort have suited him really well, and the horse may be blossoming. Spring 3 year olds can mature rapidly, and maybe Breen sees him going in the right direction and believes he is coming up to the race the right way.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

My reaction was more provoked by the ridiculousness of Mine That Bird going than anything else. I hadn't paid any attention to Atomic Rain until multiple viewings of the Wood. I actually was far more interested in West Side Bernie. I think it's apparant in the Wood that Atomic Rain had plenty of traffic to deal with in the stretch and persevered after having been part of the pace from the opening. The three horses that finished ahead of him were all rallying wider while he was pocketed. I didn't give him a thought until seeing how he hung in after things finally opened up in deepest stretch. From my vantage point, that was a very good try.

I certainly can't a fault horse for an off effort at Tampa, and while he may only be an ALW horse when it's said and done, I think he is way more worthy of a Derby slot than a Mine That Bird. We also don't know what Breen is seeing from the horse in these 2 weeks post-Wood. The timing and effort have suited him really well, and the horse may be blossoming. Spring 3 year olds can mature rapidly, and maybe Breen sees him going in the right direction and believes he is coming up to the race the right way.

Just because horses are pocketed doesn't mean they had tough trips. In fact, it often means they had decent trips. Yeah, Atomic Rain was pocketed into the stretch, and until about the eighth pole, and then the field separated itself, and ran away from Atomic Rain. He wasn't " courageous " at all....he was too slow. And, remember something else, the winner had lengths of trouble, which makes his margin of finish over Atomic Rain larger than it actually was.

Frankly, Atomic Rain has not given a great indication that he can even be a successful allowance horse at this time. Maybe if they run him shorter he will improve, but he seems somewhat disance challenged.....and slow.

I understand Mine That Bird is another poorly placed entrant....however how much worse are his pps, honestly, than those of Atomic Rain?

[slotdirt]

I heart West Side Bernie, distance-limited pedigree and all.

[Kasept]

Fair point Andy. Rain and Bird may absolutely be on a par level wise. But at least if he's a mediocrity, we know Atomic Rain wants dirt and appears best suited or competitive on it. Mine That Bird seems like a mediocrity on synthetics with no promise of dirt improvement.

This all leads back to the question of how to ensure the best field for this one particular, and overblown, race.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Merlinsky,

I'm surprised by this largely unfair and under-researched comment. His Remsen placing? I think you'll find half his earnings come from the deceptively good and quite courageous 4th he ran in the Wood while his stablemate was running 2nd. Comparing Atomic Rain's Derby intentions to Mine That Bird's is a gross insult to Breen and The Halls. While Atomic Rain doesn't necessarily need to go in the Derby and probably won't get in, he's Alydar compared to Mine That Bird.
And Hold Me Back's Remsen form is not in question... As DrugS has laid out a number of times in his prep analysis, the glacial pace in the Remsen was 100% responsible for him having zero chance to produce any rally.

Now playing the part of Affirmed.........Mine that Bird.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Now playing the part of Affirmed.........Mine that Bird.

king - drugs told me to bet him , i forgot - he's better start giving me the plays the day of rather than 2 weeks before

[King Glorious]

I couldn't have had that winner in a million tries but this was the first post I thought of when he won.

[Split Rock]

With all due respect to Steve Byk (I love his horse racing show and seems like a good guy), he owes a sincere apology to the connections of Mine That Bird. While the horse appeared to have zero hope on paper, he deserved to be in based on the rules of entry.

In addition, it just goes to show how absolutely idiotic an idea it is to reduce the field size to 14. Why would you do that? Just to be able to handicap it better? I don't understand. It's ALL about the chance.

Finally, the Derby finish solidifies the fact that stiffer drug testing reveals the phony trainers (Pletcher most notably).

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Now playing the part of Affirmed.........Mine that Bird.

Not jabbing at Steve or taking sides but this post is pretty funny.

Well played!

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Merlinsky,

I'm surprised by this largely unfair and under-researched comment. His Remsen placing? I think you'll find half his earnings come from the deceptively good and quite courageous 4th he ran in the Wood while his stablemate was running 2nd. Comparing Atomic Rain's Derby intentions to Mine That Bird's is a gross insult to Breen and The Halls. While Atomic Rain doesn't necessarily need to go in the Derby and probably won't get in, he's Alydar compared to Mine That Bird.

And Hold Me Back's Remsen form is not in question... As DrugS has laid out a number of times in his prep analysis, the glacial pace in the Remsen was 100% responsible for him having zero chance to produce any rally.

this is the nicest thing anyone has said about mine that bird, pre-derby

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

It's never an isolated case. Someone else just caught 'stupid'. Folks shook their heads when Mine That Bird was a 'go' and now, it's officially an epidemic. Atomic Rain, if he has the earnings at a nauseatingly low $77,500 from his Remsen placing, is set to go per Kelly Breen of West Side Bernie fame. They're waiting to find out if 4 horses drop out by the looks of it. I'm guessing they don't make it but the fact that they're trying....

Look I know we can't innoculate people from Derby Fever but surely there's like a flu shot thingy where you can get a mild version of it ahead of time right? All Atomic Rain has done is break his maiden. What's his highest Beyer? Old Fashioned got a 100 in the Remsen whilst crushing the aforementioned Atomic Rain. (Yes I'm aware Hold Me Back was in that race but there's all sorts of questions about the form he had there so who knows if you can hold HMB to it.)

It's hardly an epidemic. The connections of Mafaaz, Charitable Man, Big Drama, and Terrain have all passed. That's more voluntary passing in one year than I think we've seen in the last three years combined.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

It's hardly an epidemic. The connections of Mafaaz, Charitable Man, Big Drama, and Terrain have all passed. That's more voluntary passing in one year than I think we've seen in the last three years combined.

This really hurts me too, as I had narrowed the Derby Super down to a Trifecta with the assumption that Terrain would automatically finish fourth, which he always does regardless of the competition.

Back to the drawing board.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

This really hurts me too, as I had narrowed the Derby Super down to a Trifecta with the assumption that Terrain would automatically finish fourth, which he always does regardless of the competition.

Back to the drawing board.

Once you proclaimed that I was so convinced that I gave BBB $12 so that he could hit me a $6,840 Pick 4. I would then use that $6,840 to play ALL-ALL-ALL-Terrain. Al Stall is a killjoy.

NT

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Once you proclaimed that I was so convinced that I gave BBB $12 so that he could hit me a $6,840 Pick 4. I would then use that $6,840 to play ALL-ALL-ALL-Terrain. Al Stall is a killjoy.

NT

Yea, I've been pretty steadfast about this since for some time now.

Like you, I now have next to no idea how to even begin thinking about the Derby.