4/21: Derby Works & Notes

[Bobby Fischer]

I like to see videos of the works

[justindew]

KentuckyDerby.com will have videos of all Churchill works very soon.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Sorry! My fault.. Meant that about General Quarters...

(Don't know why I confused it in with the Choc. Candy follow up...)

How dappled was Prince Thou Art?


Is it possible for a horse like PotN to work as well as he did and have an issue with the surface on race day or is there a point where the work is actually indicative? It seems like excuses from synthetic horses happen every year where we think things are gonna maybe work out and then on the day, not so much. Could it just be that they handled it just fine as their works suggested and weren't that good in the Derby on their own merit/lackthereof? Does it also matter that they soup it up for the big day versus this work where it looks like the surface just got slower over the day?

[Danzig]

didn't curlin have some really good works over the turf?

also seem to recall hard spun had some really good works at oaklawn, and then ran very poorly in the southwest stakes. porter and jones were lavish in their praise, and then he finished fourth and they did a 180, saying he didn't like the track. that after they said he loved the track. go figure.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

How dappled was Prince Thou Art?


Is it possible for a horse like PotN to work as well as he did and have an issue with the surface on race day or is there a point where the work is actually indicative? It seems like excuses from synthetic horses happen every year where we think things are gonna maybe work out and then on the day, not so much. Could it just be that they handled it just fine as their works suggested and weren't that good in the Derby on their own merit/lackthereof? Does it also matter that they soup it up for the big day versus this work where it looks like the surface just got slower over the day?

Chic Anderson thought Prince Thou Art looked great....until deep stretch.

To suggest that Pioneer of the Nile " answered all questions " about his ability to handle the dirt with his work today is a pretty surprising thing to do. Come on, turf horses work well on the dirt all the time, but you can only tell for certain if a horse will handle the dirt if he ( or she ) is under raceday pressures. I'm not saying he won't handle the surface.....but I'm shocked that anybody would say he is certain to after today's stroll.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Watch it there Derby Barbie... I'll put some dapples on your hind end.

I laughed, very hard!

[MISTERGEE]

learning how to make the julep may actually help more

[Hoist Her Flag]

I'm not saying he won't handle the surface.....but I'm shocked that anybody would say he is certain to after today's stroll.

Thought you have been saying since January he won't handle the surface. You also said Old Fashioned would have issues when facing a real pace which he did.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Chic Anderson thought Prince Thou Art looked great....until deep stretch.

To suggest that Pioneer of the Nile " answered all questions " about his ability to handle the dirt with his work today is a pretty surprising thing to do. Come on, turf horses work well on the dirt all the time, but you can only tell for certain if a horse will handle the dirt if he ( or she ) is under raceday pressures. I'm not saying he won't handle the surface.....but I'm shocked that anybody would say he is certain to after today's stroll.

Even with his string of wins wont POTN be under bet? I know that sounds crazy but he has slow syn figures that the public wont understand, has never run on dirt, and will be the subject of a drumbeat of articles saying how bad a bet he is. I would imagine he is around 6/1, now whether thats fair is subjective but I have seen this play out before.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Some of these horses in the next tier have to move up to 20 to one if the Big four are all under 8-1. Don't they. I will bet Desert Part at 20-1, not 12-1.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Even with his string of wins wont POTN be under bet? I know that sounds crazy but he has slow syn figures that the public wont understand, has never run on dirt, and will be the subject of a drumbeat of articles saying how bad a bet he is. I would imagine he is around 6/1, now whether thats fair is subjective but I have seen this play out before.

6:1 seems like a dramatic underlay to me....but honestly, I don't want to soil this fine thread by turning it into, yet another, anti-POTN thread.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Off Subject does anyone know if there is a typo on the Exacta Payoffs on the Kentucky Derby.com web site. Under Pool 2 it says exacta odds. Under Pool 3 it says Payoffs. I have some exacta alive. I would like to know if I get $200 in pool 2 or $400.

[MISTERGEE]

If I show this to John White you will have hell to pay

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

6:1 seems like a dramatic underlay to me....but honestly, I don't want to soil this fine thread by turning it into, yet another, anti-POTN thread.

Thank you, let's try to keep his price as low as possible.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

Off Subject does anyone know if there is a typo on the Exacta Payoffs on the Kentucky Derby.com web site. Under Pool 2 it says exacta odds. Under Pool 3 it says Payoffs. I have some exacta alive. I would like to know if I get $200 in pool 2 or $400.

think it's a typo. They should be listed as payoffs.

[jett129]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

How dappled was Prince Thou Art?


Is it possible for a horse like PotN to work as well as he did and have an issue with the surface on race day or is there a point where the work is actually indicative? It seems like excuses from synthetic horses happen every year where we think things are gonna maybe work out and then on the day, not so much. Could it just be that they handled it just fine as their works suggested and weren't that good in the Derby on their own merit/lackthereof? Does it also matter that they soup it up for the big day versus this work where it looks like the surface just got slower over the day?

What about Colonel John last year?--Jett

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

6:1 seems like a dramatic underlay to me....but honestly, I don't want to soil this fine thread by turning it into, yet another, anti-POTN thread.

well yea, you would not take him at 30/1 but you know that was not my point. If someone likes the horse and pegs him as a Triple Crown winner then I think they are going to be surprised at his price.

[Kasept]

MIKE WELSCH'S VIDEO COMMENTARY:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...r/clocker.html

Mike Welsch's Workout comments from Tuesday...

Pioneerof the Nile (six furlongs in 1:13.52): Any questions regarding Pioneerof the Nile's ability to adapt to dirt after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces throughout his career should have been erased after watching him glide across the track immediately after the break. With exercise rider Joe Steiner aboard, Pioneerof the Nile showed off his long, smooth stride while going effortlessly from start to finish, cutting out a series of 12-second eighth-mile splits without urging before finishing up with good energy to the wire and around the turn. He then proceeded to gallop out strongly down the backstretch before pulling up near the three-eighths pole. The final time might have been a bit misleading because of the somewhat tiring nature of the racetrack and the fact he worked without company. But make no mistake, Pioneerof the Nile has the look of a horse coming up to the Derby in peak form.

I Want Revenge (five furlongs in 1:01.62): With jockey Joe Talamo aboard, the Wood winner broke off approximately two lengths behind stablemate Gato Go Win and finished up about a neck in front of his mate while well within himself at the wire. Completed his final furlong in a modest 12.83 before drawing away from his company and galloping out six furlongs in 1:15.25 under just very moderate urging. Appeared to be a good maintenance move and an improvement over his first local work the previous week.

Chocolate Candy (one mile in 1:42.06): Like Talamo, jockey Mike Smith flew in from California for this work, which was very important considering Chocolate Candy has never raced or even breezed over dirt. Chocolate Candy began at an even clip, posting fractions of 24.79, 49.77, and 1:14.96 for the opening quarter, half, and six furlongs, but began to labor some nearing the wire and around the turn back to where he began at the seven-furlong marker. Completed his final quarter in a moderate 27.10 before galloping out 1 1/8 miles in 1:57.23. Was a tired horse at the end but must take into account the fact he was working over a relatively deep track. Should have gotten plenty of foundation out of this move.

Flying Private (five furlongs in 1:01.20): Worked with stablemate Lord and T., who provided little opposition once turning into the stretch, at which point Flying Private, with new rider Robby Albarado aboard, left him in the dust. Completed his final quarter in 25 under mild urging before galloping out six furlongs in a modest 1:16.

Flat Out (five furlongs in 1:03.26): The only potential Derby starter to work before the break when the racetrack was on the faster side, and he actually did his best running after his work, galloping out an additional eighth in 12.53 after plodding through the final quarter of the actual drill in 25.86. Not expected to make the Derby lineup.

The weariest person by the end of next week may turn out to be Rachel Alexandra's exercise rider, who certainly had her hands full getting the Kentucky Oaks favorite around the course without knocking anybody over on Tuesday. Rachel Alexandra is a joy to watch as she goes through even a routine morning gallop, pulling her rider out of the saddle while breezing around at a lively clip with her neck bowed to the outside and obviously enjoying herself every step of the way. Can't wait to watch her final scheduled Oaks prep here on Monday morning.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Kasept

MIKE WELSCH'S VIDEO COMMENTARY:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...r/clocker.html

The weariest person by the end of next week may turn out to be Rachel Alexandra's exercise rider, who certainly had her hands full getting the Kentucky Oaks favorite around the course without knocking anybody over on Tuesday. Rachel Alexandra is a joy to watch as she goes through even a routine morning gallop, pulling her rider out of the saddle while breezing around at a lively clip with her neck bowed to the outside and obviously enjoying herself every step of the way. Can't wait to watch her final scheduled Oaks prep here on Monday morning.

I'm really starting to think RA would have a legit shot at the KY Derby.

[CSC]

I'm not a big Tomlinson guy, but how did they come up with such a low distance Tomlinson for Quality Road? The only other Derby Contender that I can recall with such a low rating was Medaglia D'oro at 265.