Who will be the "wise guy" horse???

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Go For Gin would have been the last legitimate "wise guy" selection that won IMO.

Giacomo had all the wiseguy elements - he just wasn't bet.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by miraja2

People clearly have different definitions of "wise guy" horses, but personally I wouldn't classify a horse coming in off of a dominant win like Bandini had in the Bluegrass that year as a "wise guy" horse. Typically, when it comes to the Derby, I think wise guy horses are horses that did not win their final derby "prep" race, but the wise guys believe they have found a logical reason why that happened which is unlikely to repeat itself in the Derby. For me, it doesn't mean the same thing as simply an overbet horse.
To me, Desert Party fits the model more than any others this year. That doesn't mean he can't or won't win.

Noble Causeway was without a doubt the wiseguy horse in that field.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Giacomo had all the wiseguy elements - he just wasn't bet.

I disagree completely. That race fell apart. There was nothing wiseguy about that horse...A wiseguy horse is bet.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Like seven or eight of the horses coming into the Derby Dollar Bill's year had a race or two that made them look like friggin beasts.

I realize a lot of them weren't the type who figured to enjoy a fast paced 10 furlong race .. but the year was loaded to the gills with talented sharp horses.

I don't think it's debatable at all. That was the most impressive group coming into the Derby.

Tell me about it. I LOVED Congaree in that race. He just wasn't quite up for 10F with that crazy pace.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Giacomo had all the wiseguy elements - he just wasn't bet.

True, bad trips, working well, etc. but honestly the ONLY person- anywhere- that I heard talking him up was Rudolph, and I went to that Derby (zero chatter on track. All Noble Causeway.) I think a qualification of being a wise guy horse is actually getting bet.

[slotdirt]

I believe our boy Kasept talked him up - as well as Closing Argument - in his immediate pre-Derby selections.

[DogsUp]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Dunkirk or Desert Party.

The local "experts" are all over Desert Party. Asher has him winning and Byrne has him coming in 2nd.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I disagree completely. That race fell apart. There was nothing wiseguy about that horse...A wiseguy horse is bet.

He was basically viewed by many as the most likely horse to win the Derby coming into that years 3yo season.

He was a lightly raced horse with a strong closing 2nd to that years 2yo champion - while beating that years BC Juvenile winner in his final 2yo start.

He was five wide on both turns against a speed biased track and still ran a 98 Beyer in the Sham.

He was 2nd in the stakes record San Felipe run over an INSANELY fast track that was carrying speed.

And he was 4th in the merry-go-round like Santa Anita Derby that was a total slow early-fast late race shape.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He was basically viewed by many as the most likely horse to win the Derby coming into that years 3yo season.

He was a lightly raced horse with a strong closing 2nd to that years 2yo champion - while beating that years BC Juvenile winner in his final 2yo start.

He was five wide on both turns against a speed biased track and still ran a 98 Beyer in the Sham.

He was 2nd in the stakes record San Felipe run over an INSANELY fast track that was carrying speed.

And he was 4th in the merry-go-round like Santa Anita Derby that was a total slow early-fast late race shape.

Apparently you aren't understanding the definition of a wise guy horse...Revisionist history doesn't help your argument. 50-1 doesn't make a wise guy horse ever. Someone will always make a case for all 20 horses in a field. It doesn't mean anything. Buzz creates wise guy horses. And Giacomo had the buzz of crickets....some said include in a super. And that's that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I picked him to win that years Derby - posted it on boards- and there are many here who remember it.

The only difference between him and Dollar Bill is that Dollar Bill was 6/1 and he was 50/1 - and Dollar Bill was running against 7 or 8 horses with more than one vastly superior race while Giacomo was running against 2 or 3 horses with only a single vastly superior race.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I picked him to win that years Derby - posted it on boards- and there are many here who remember it.

The only difference between him and Dollar Bill is that Dollar Bill was 6/1 and he was 50/1 - and Dollar Bill was running against 7 or 8 horses with more than one vastly superior race while Giacomo was running against 2 or 3 horses with only a single vastly superior race.

OMG. Golfclap....B/c you picked the horse doesn't make him a wiseguy pick. It makes him a DrugS pick....Where am I, your posts usually make more sense than those in this thread.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

OMG. Golfclap....B/c you picked the horse doesn't make him a wiseguy pick. It makes him a DrugS pick....Where am I, your posts usually make more sense than those in this thread.

I never said he was a wiseguy horse.

I said he has all the elements of a wiseguy horse - like a Dollar Bill - but he just wasn't bet.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Apparently you aren't understanding the definition of a wise guy horse...Revisionist history doesn't help your argument. 50-1 doesn't make a wise guy horse ever. Someone will always make a case for all 20 horses in a field. It doesn't mean anything. Buzz creates wise guy horses. And Giacomo had the buzz of crickets....some said include in a super. And that's that.

Old Yahoo Group Derby Trailers had at least a heads up about his potetial...
http://www.derbytrail.com/wp/?p=52

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Old Yahoo Group Derby Trailers had at least a heads up about his potetial...
http://www.derbytrail.com/wp/?p=52

Steve, would you say that Dennis Of Cork was the wise guy horse last year? And he ran well....Sometimes they run well, sometimes they don't.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Steve, would you say that Dennis Of Cork was the wise guy horse last year? And he ran well....Sometimes they run well, sometimes they don't.

Denis of Cork had wiseguy elements ... a better than looked off the board finish in the merry go round like Illi Derby - but he was 27/1.

He wasn't bet either.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Denis of Cork had wiseguy elements ... a better than looked off the board finish in the Illi Derby - but he was 27/1.

He wasn't bet either.

Bzzzz. 27-1 is bet in the Derby. 50-1 is not. Plus, BB took a lot of money in the win spot. DOC was quite a bit different in the ex and tri pools if you ask me.

[Sightseek]

Point Determined? I can't remember what he went off at, but I thought it was low.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Steve, would you say that Dennis Of Cork was the wise guy horse last year? And he ran well....Sometimes they run well, sometimes they don't.

He was even 'wise guy-ish' before he got in. People were saying, "if only Denis of Cork could get in, he'd have a big shot'. It was actually funny because once he got in, people then went shopping for a new wiseguy horse as if they had let the secret out and everyone was going to be betting Denis of Cork.

[Pedigree Ann]

Stereotypical 'wise guy' horse is Saarland, who was always closing at shorter distances but hadn't won a prep race. Beautiful looking horse with a top-quality pedigree for a 10f who had won the Remsen at 2, which is rapidly becoming the kiss of death, so to speak. Actually started favorite in the Derby from all the wise-guy talk.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bzzzz. 27-1 is bet in the Derby. 50-1 is not. Plus, BB took a lot of money in the win spot. DOC was quite a bit different in the ex and tri pools if you ask me.

Big Truck was 28/1 off of an 11th place finish in the Blue Grass.

Z Fortune was 19/1 - even though he was defeated in 3 straight Derby preps in Arkansas and Louisianna.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bzzzz. 27-1 is bet in the Derby. 50-1 is not. Plus, BB took a lot of money in the win spot. DOC was quite a bit different in the ex and tri pools if you ask me.

His ordinal rank in the wagering was pretty much in line with his proven ability. I'd say last year really lacked a wiseguy horse, unless you want to say Pyro was somewhat that type (finishing 2nd to last in his final prep and still going off single digits.)