4/27: Incident mars Derby Works..

[philcski]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I don't disagree, but neither were they abnormally slow.

5.2 lengths on average (Saturday) at 6F isn't abnormally slow?

It's among the slowest 10% of days I have on record for CD.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I would certainly prefer to see the track playing lightening fast come Derby day.

It's not even close to that yet.

CD doesnt want to lose their Blue Ribbon safety award that the NTRA gave them.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

CD doesnt want to lose their Blue Ribbon safety award that the NTRA gave them.

Now THAT is funny!!!!!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

That's twice Steve has said POTN looks good. I was just waiting to see how he likes it there. That's my choice. We will see whether he's what I think he is, or if he's what Andy says he is ("PIONEER OF NOTHING.")

[jms62]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

That's twice Steve has said POTN looks good. I was just waiting to see how he likes it there. That's my choice. We will see whether he's what I think he is, or if he's what Andy says he is ("PIONEER OF NOTHING.")

Love to hear Andy debate John White on the prospects of POTN in the Derby on ATR...

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by philcski

5.2 lengths on average (Saturday) at 6F isn't abnormally slow?

It's among the slowest 10% of days I have on record for CD.

The cards at Churchill this weekend were abnormally weak, with more cheap, short fields than I can ever remember for the opening weekend of a big race meet. And Tuesday's card is even worse.

I don't know where the par times came from, but assuming they are accurate, if you take out Saturday's first race, most of the races were within a second of "par." When I think of a track being slow, I think of horses running 6F in 1:13 and 1:14 (like we saw on the inner track this winter on several occasions), and miles in 1:39 and 1:40. That was not the case on Saturday, and on Sunday, most of the final times for the races were within a tick or two of the "par" times you provided.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by jms62

Love to hear Andy debate John White on the prospects of POTN in the Derby on ATR...

l've never heard Andy on ATR but it's hard to imagine him or anybody getting a word in edge wise

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

Love to hear Andy debate John White on the prospects of POTN in the Derby on ATR...

Hey, who knows, another three or four contenders drop out and he could be in the super.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

l've never heard Andy on ATR but it's hard to imagine him or anybody getting a word in edge wise

That's rarely one of my problems.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Hey, who knows, another three or four contenders drop out and he could be in the super.

and then you can debate whether or not the Gandolphin horses hit the board.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

and then you can debate whether or not the Gandolphin horses hit the board.

I'm not sure Desert Party can't have an impact on this race. He's a better horse than Pioneer of the Nile.

Then again.....who isn't?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

The cards at Churchill this weekend were abnormally weak, with more cheap, short fields than I can ever remember for the opening weekend of a big race meet. And Tuesday's card is even worse.

I don't know where the par times came from, but assuming they are accurate, if you take out Saturday's first race, most of the races were within a second of "par." When I think of a track being slow, I think of horses running 6F in 1:13 and 1:14 (like we saw on the inner track this winter on several occasions), and miles in 1:39 and 1:40. That was not the case on Saturday, and on Sunday, most of the final times for the races were within a tick or two of the "par" times you provided.

I realize that you are holding out hope that somehow I'm wrong... but I'm not.

The pars are over the last 3 years in a database I maintain. While I agree the fields were very weak this weekend, it's not atypical for the first weekend at CD because the better horses on the grounds either just ran at KEE or are waiting till next weekend (wouldn't you if it meant a free ticket for the Derby?) Second, I am comparing apples to apples- so if they're slow horses, they still ran slow compared to other slow horses. Third, a one second difference is an ETERNITY in this game, you know that. Finally, the times on the inner track this winter were because the horses running were truly terrible, worse than any year previous, not because the track was inherently safer- plus, you cannot compare a two turn mile to a one turn mile. the AVERAGE horse at Aqueduct will run 1.6 seconds slower on the inner (two turns) than the outer (one turn).

[DogsUp]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not sure Desert Party can't have an impact on this race. He's a better horse than Pioneer of the Nile.

Then again.....who isn't?

This is a very valid question. I think that Desert Party can have a impact on this race and with Q.R out, I think that Regal Ransom can have am impact as well.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by philcski

I realize that you are holding out hope that somehow I'm wrong... but I'm not.

The pars are over the last 3 years in a database I maintain. While I agree the fields were very weak this weekend, it's not atypical for the first weekend at CD because the better horses on the grounds either just ran at KEE or are waiting till next weekend (wouldn't you if it meant a free ticket for the Derby?) Second, I am comparing apples to apples- so if they're slow horses, they still ran slow compared to other slow horses. Third, a one second difference is an ETERNITY in this game, you know that. Finally, the times on the inner track this winter were because the horses running were truly terrible, worse than any year previous, not because the track was inherently safer- plus, you cannot compare a two turn mile to a one turn mile. the AVERAGE horse at Aqueduct will run 1.6 seconds slower on the inner (two turns) than the outer (one turn).

arent the Churchill races generally weak except for a few days a year?

[slotdirt]

Regal Ransom will, without a doubt in my mind, have an impact on the race in some form or fashion.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not sure Desert Party can't have an impact on this race. He's a better horse than Pioneer of the Nile.

Then again.....who isn't?

If you were a betting man ... Do you think a Gandolphin horse hits the Super?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

If you were a betting man ... Do you think a Gandolphin horse hits the Super?

Gandolphin? Wasn't he in Lord of the Rings?

At least he won't have trouble finding a jockey?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not sure Desert Party can't have an impact on this race. He's a better horse than Pioneer of the Nile.

Then again.....who isn't?

If POTN doesn't win the Derby, he'll have his chance to do it (win a Triple Crown Race) in front of you at Big Sandy. Like father, like son. I like him better in the Belmont, anyways.

[Left Bank]

CNN Headline news just showed the crash!! It was awful!! That horse had a full head of steam built up,no rider and just plowed into the other.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

If POTN doesn't win the Derby, he'll have his chance to do it (win a Triple Crown Race) in front of you at Big Sandy. Like father, like son. I like him better in the Belmont, anyways.

I already saw him crawl around the track a couple of times at Saratoga.

I am heartened to see you already hedging for this weekend.