Hall of Fame? Yes or No

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I once heard someone say, that if you really have to think about the player then no should probably be the answer.

Besides he Coors field thing, I just feel like Helton has flown below the radar for much of his career. It seemed like he never got the recognition he deserved and when it comes time for the Hall I think all that lack of press/spotlight might end up hurting him.

For Vlad, although he has had some great season. I just don't think he ever reached that level that everyone thought he was destined for. I know thats unfair, but unfortunately it might come into play come voting time.

Sheff is a guy that's on the fence and from what I remember he wasn't the most popular guy with the media either. That and the allegations might hurt him, but I do think he will eventually end up in.

You make valid points about Thome. He did also play in hitter's parks, but I really think his HR's will carry him in.

That is complete bs. Your exposure to a player is directly linked to where he plays and you live.

If Vlad didnt reach that level, what exactly would that level need to be? His closest comparisons are Willie, Freaky and the Duke!

Vlad Guerrero was twice the baseball player that Jim Thome was. He shouldnt be unfairly judged because he was unfortunately drafted by Montreal.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Gander

I would definetely give a NO to Sheffield. If he gets in, it opens the door to a lot of others who are kind of marginal - borderline guys (to even be considered).

There are already a lot of borderline guys in. Jim Rice for example.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Interesting that for you, Jones is a lock while Thome and Sheffield are questionable. I looked at their career 162g averages and they are all very similar:

Jones 32-108, .307 avg, .406 obp, 11 sb, 109 runs
Sheff 32-105, .292 avg, .393 obp, 16 sb, 103 runs
Thome 40-111, .277 avg, .404 obp, 1 sb, 105 runs

Here's where I come out on it. When I have to debate their numbers or compare their cases against other players, that's a no for me. To me, a hall of famer is one that I say yes to without having to look at the numbers to make their case or say "well, since so and so's in, he should be in too." Guerrero was one of the most feared hitters in the game for a number of years and we remember that without looking up any numbers. Ichiro is one of the best hitters in the history of the game. No need to look up any numbers to remind you of that.

Those numbers are the only things that Shef and Thome were good at. Not to mention that Jones was a far better fielder than both and played an actual defensive position his whole career. Should a DH/horrific fielder be downgraded against a position player? Absolutely

[Crown@club]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The 103 people of which the government got. He is rumored to be on there, been coming out in drips and drabs.

oh some list that omits about 4 teams of players, one being the Cardinals and saying that a certain whole starting pitching staff is listed?

[Cannon Shell]

The one player that no one listed as a yes and has been the subject of steroid talk is Tejada.

His numbers rank him among the top 4 or 5 SS already in the HoF. Of course he has no shot unless the vets committee in 2040 looks at the numbers and cant figure out how we missed him.

Of course he has no shot because of the steroids thing.

[RockHardTen1985]

[quote=Cannon Shell]Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro YES

Vlad Guerrero YES

Jim Thome NO

John Smoltz NO

Johnny Damon NO

Trevor Hoffman NO

Todd Helton NO

Chipper Jones NO

Bobby Abreu LOLOL

Gary Sheffield NO

Miguel Tejada NO

Andy Pettite YES

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I think 500 Hr's gets you in.

omg

[horseofcourse]

The only definite for me is Smoltz.

I would highly consider Ichiro, Guerrero, and Hoffman.

Helton is tough but no...once the humidor went into Coors his numbers plummeted.
Jones may be close as well.

The rest...no.

Abreu is a very underrated offensive player but certainly not a HOF'er.

[Cannon Shell]

[quote=RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro YES

Vlad Guerrero YES

Jim Thome NO

John Smoltz NO

Johnny Damon NO

Trevor Hoffman NO

Todd Helton NO

Chipper Jones NO

Bobby Abreu LOLOL

Gary Sheffield NO

Miguel Tejada NO

Andy Pettite YES

I guess this as good a place as any to point out the merits of John Smoltz.
His lifetime record is 213 - 155 but considering he lost a year to injury and was a full time closer the following 4 years afterwards it looks a lot more impressive. Had he just pitched normally during those 5 years he would be at around 285-290 right now. The fact that he was able to mid-career become the best relief pitcher in the NL and record 154 saves in 3 1.2 years then go back to the rotation and become one of the leagues best starters at age 37-40 is unparalleled in baseball history. When you look at the other stats like k's, era, whip, k/9, Innings, saves, h/9, bb/9, k/bb, he is clearly HoF caliber. He twice led the league in wins and win%, led the league in k's, Innings pitched and saves. Think about that, led the league in innings pitched and also led in saves. Smoltz won a Cy Young as a starter and finished third as a closer. He also won a silver slugger award.

But what seals the deal is his post season performance. His record was 15-4 with a 2.67 era and 4 saves in 41 games. He was 7-0 with 3 saves in the NLDS. 6-2 with a 2.83 era in the NLCS and 2-2 with a 2.47 era in the WS.

Of the 4 losses one was 2-1 to the Phils in 93, Smoltz gave up both runs unearned.
The 96 loss in the WS was a 1-0 loss when the run was again unearned.
The loss in the 99 series was a 4-1 loss where he gave up 3 runs, all earned.
The 97 loss was the only one where he didnt pitch well, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings in a 5-2 loss.
So in his 4 postseason losses the Braves scored 5 runs while he gave up 8.

He also got a ND in the famous Jack Morris 10 inning series clincher in 1991, going into the 8th and not allowing a run.

He not only is a lock, he is quite deserving.

[pgiaco]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro Yes

Vlad Guerrero Yes

Jim Thome NFW

John Smoltz Yes

Johnny Damon No

Trevor Hoffman NO

Todd Helton No

Chipper Jones Only because he tormented the Mets

Bobby Abreu No

Gary Sheffield No

Miguel Tejada No

Andy Pettite A favoriteof mine, but No

My 2 cents

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro YES

Vlad Guerrero MAYBE

Jim Thome YES

John Smoltz YES

Johnny Damon NO

Trevor Hoffman YES

Todd Helton NO

Chipper Jones YES

Bobby Abreu NO

Gary Sheffield NO

Miguel Tejada NO

Andy Pettite NO

My 3 cents

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro yes

Vlad Guerrero yes

Jim Thome yes

John Smoltz yes

Johnny Damon not even close

Trevor Hoffman yes

Todd Helton yes

Chipper Jones yes

Bobby Abreu no

Gary Sheffield no

Miguel Tejada no

Andy Pettite no

First the yes's:
Ichiro: somewhat marginal because his BA is 28th in baseball history, but his lack of power and OBP (consequently OPS) is so low but I think his impact as the greatest Asian player pushes him in. Also a stunning defender with 8 straight Gold Gloves.

Guerrero: anybody saying no, have you actually seen this guy play? he can hit any pitch anywhere. he's 22nd in the history of baseball in OPS and every player in front of him is in the Hall (or will be). A 188 James Hall of Fame Monitor score (140 is considered a "cinch").

Thome: tough call because of the steroid rumors but 564 home runs and 20th overall in OPS is tough to ignore.

Smoltz: he's been a top 5-10 pitcher for 20 years in both starting and relief roles. enough said

Hoffman: he's the career leader in saves by a longshot. how could that not be enough when saves are so important in this era?

Helton: He ranks 10th in all-time OPS. the players in front of him? Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Pujols, Bonds, Foxx, Greenberg, Hornsby, Ramirez. Enough said. Say what you want about Colorado but his road stats are pretty amazing too. 162 JHoFM score

Jones: 25th all time in OPS- see above cases, a 162 James Hall of Fame Monitor score. A cinch (even though I hate him)

no's:

Damon: Not even close on any measure.

Abreu: Never had more than 31 homers in a season and his best accomplishment is leading the league in doubles 2002. not even close

Sheffield: Close on some measures, like the 500 home run mark, but was never a good postseason player, and the steriod issue looms large.

Tejada: same as above

Pettite: tough to exclude but I feel like he's missing a few wins given the black cloud. If he gets to 250 I'd reconsider.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro

Vlad Guerrero

Jim Thome

John Smoltz

Johnny Damon

Trevor Hoffman

Todd Helton

Chipper Jones

Bobby Abreu

Gary Sheffield

Miguel Tejada

Andy Pettite

Ichero-----Guerrero---smoltz-----Pettite

[King Glorious]

[quote=Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I guess this as good a place as any to point out the merits of John Smoltz.
His lifetime record is 213 - 155 but considering he lost a year to injury and was a full time closer the following 4 years afterwards it looks a lot more impressive. Had he just pitched normally during those 5 years he would be at around 285-290 right now. The fact that he was able to mid-career become the best relief pitcher in the NL and record 154 saves in 3 1.2 years then go back to the rotation and become one of the leagues best starters at age 37-40 is unparalleled in baseball history. When you look at the other stats like k's, era, whip, k/9, Innings, saves, h/9, bb/9, k/bb, he is clearly HoF caliber. He twice led the league in wins and win%, led the league in k's, Innings pitched and saves. Think about that, led the league in innings pitched and also led in saves. Smoltz won a Cy Young as a starter and finished third as a closer. He also won a silver slugger award.

But what seals the deal is his post season performance. His record was 15-4 with a 2.67 era and 4 saves in 41 games. He was 7-0 with 3 saves in the NLDS. 6-2 with a 2.83 era in the NLCS and 2-2 with a 2.47 era in the WS.

Of the 4 losses one was 2-1 to the Phils in 93, Smoltz gave up both runs unearned.
The 96 loss in the WS was a 1-0 loss when the run was again unearned.
The loss in the 99 series was a 4-1 loss where he gave up 3 runs, all earned.
The 97 loss was the only one where he didnt pitch well, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings in a 5-2 loss.
So in his 4 postseason losses the Braves scored 5 runs while he gave up 8.

He also got a ND in the famous Jack Morris 10 inning series clincher in 1991, going into the 8th and not allowing a run.

He not only is a lock, he is quite deserving.

I really like Smoltz and he was the toughest one for me to leave out. Even though I think he will make it, if I had a vote, he wouldn't get it. He was a really, really good pitcher and he was great in the post-season. But that's just it. He was consistently good and was so for a long time. But except for one season, he was never great. He did win the Cy Young once but that was his only 20-win season. Only three times did he finish in the top five of the Cy Young voting. Tom Glavine won two and finished in the top five six times. Maddux won four and finished in the top five nine times. Smoltz was in the top three of the voting only twice (Glavine six times, Maddux seven times). Those guys were the dominant pitchers and the no-brainers here. Smoltz was a cut below. I think that at the same time a player like Helton's numbers should be examined closer because of where he played, I think Smoltz' should be examined closer because of where he played. Not because it was IN Atlanta but because it was FOR Atlanta. Those teams were always among the best in baseball. If you look at the stretch of his career starting in 1991 when they won their first division title until 2005 when they won their last in their great run, you find something that I think is kind of interesting. Here's his winning % per season against the teams winning %:

Year.........Smoltz..........Braves.......Glavine. .....Maddux
91..............519.............580..........645.. .........na
92..............556.............605..........714.. .........na
93..............577.............642..........786.. .........667
94..............375.............596..........591.. .........727
95..............632.............625..........696.. .........905
96..............750.............593..........600.. .........577
97..............556.............623..........667.. .........826
98..............850.............654..........769.. .........667
99..............579.............636..........560.. .........679
00...............na..............586..........700. ..........679
01...............na..............543..........696. ..........607
02...............na..............630..........621. ..........727
03...............na..............623...........na. ...........593
04...............na..............593...........na. ............na
05..............667.............556...........na.. ...........na

In 2000, Smoltz was hurt and didn't pitch and from 2000-04, he was a reliever. That leaves 10 seasons as a starting pitcher and in those 10 seasons, only four times did he finish with a higher winning % than the team did. Glavine was better than the team in nine of his 12 years and Maddux was better than the team in nine of his 11. It makes me wonder what his record would look like if he was playing for more average teams during that span? Was he more a product of his environment that people want to admit? His post-season success pushes him closer to being in and I wouldn't have any problem with anyone that felt like he deserves it. It's that close. But I wouldn't vote close. I'd only vote those guys that made me say yes as soon as you mentioned their names.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Sometimes you say some intersting things but sometimes you are so far off base its like you just came back from the methadone clinic.

No effort to get a ring? No plate discipline? Over Guerrero's career he averaged 76 K's a year (which is a very small amount for a power hitter) in an average of 685 plate appearances. He also averaged 197 hits over that same time.

His lifetime batting average is .321. His .568 slg % is 14th all-time. He has 7 silver slugger awards (other OF with 7 or more, Bonds, Ramirez, Gwynn, and Griffey). He has an MVP award and 4 other top 6 finishes. He is 5th alltime in intentional walks, leading the league 5 times. He has 407 HR's. He has 2250 hits. He has led the league in hits, runs and total bases.

All this in 13 seasons.

Baseball reference has a breakdown of stats called a similarity score adjusted by year, era, etc. Guerrero's most similar hitters by year? Willie Mays, Manny Ramirez and Duke Snider.

Yeah I think the results of three games in 2005 should trump that.

During 10 games of the 2005 post, he hit .184, and had just 1 rbi. The Halos had a shot to beat the Chisox that year, but this guy came up totally useless. He has had a decent post this year. He has 2 doubles. That gives your HOFamer a grand total of 3 post season doubles in his career. He has had a home run this post season. That now gives him a grand total of 2 post season home runs. Even with a nice post season in 2009, the guy has a total of 5 career post season extra-base hits. Sorry, but I am more scoreboard than you. They got him to help them get a ring. What did he do for them in the post of 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008? He got 2 extra base hits in 75 post season at bats. No, I wouldn't vote for him, but I can see where fantasy playing types would. If he had retired at the end of last year, would you have voted for him to go into the HOF with 2 extra base hits in 75 post season at bats? Just wondering. He's incredibly talented, but he's just about as stupid as they come. If he would have made any effort at all to stop swinging at pitchers pitches (out of the zone,) then he would of been incredible. This is a player that you respect less the more you watch him. I have seen plenty of this guy. I told ya I saw almost every Halo game in the 2nd half in 2006. He swings at sht, and grounds out n' pops up. That's probably why this individual hit .262 with men in scoring position this year. He's has the opposite of the Phil's plate game plan. To be honest, he has the talent to hit .362 with men in scoring position. All that swinging at sht adds up. Yea, he may not strike out that much, but he grounds out/pops out on pitcher's pitches (a lot.) You think I just randomly don't like the guy? That is reserved for Ichiro. I plead guilty of bias against that dude. He bores me to dozing. Really, when that guy gets on base, I'm like "how did Ichiro get on? I missed it." At least Ichiro is a good defensive player. Guerrero was horrible on D.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Gander

He still has time. Cant blame me for hoping. Stranger things have happened.

Times run out. His swing looks like he should of retired last year.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

During 10 games of the 2005 post, he hit .184, and had just 1 rbi. The Halos had a shot to beat the Chisox that year, but this guy came up totally useless. He has had a decent post this year. He has 2 doubles. That gives your HOFamer a grand total of 3 post season doubles in his career. He has had a home run this post season. That now gives him a grand total of 2 post season home runs. Even with a nice post season in 2009, the guy has a total of 5 career post season extra-base hits. Sorry, but I am more scoreboard than you. They got him to help them get a ring. What did he do for them in the post of 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008? He got 2 extra base hits in 75 post season at bats. No, I wouldn't vote for him, but I can see where fantasy playing types would. If he had retired at the end of last year, would you have voted for him to go into the HOF with 2 extra base hits in 75 post season at bats? Just wondering. He's incredibly talented, but he's just about as stupid as they come. If he would have made any effort at all to stop swinging at pitchers pitches (out of the zone,) then he would of been incredible. This is a player that you respect less the more you watch him. I have seen plenty of this guy. I told ya I saw almost every Halo game in the 2nd half in 2006. He swings at sht, and grounds out n' pops up. That's probably why this individual hit .262 with men in scoring position this year. He's has the opposite of the Phil's plate game plan. To be honest, he has the talent to hit .362 with men in scoring position. All that swinging at sht adds up. Yea, he may not strike out that much, but he grounds out/pops out on pitcher's pitches (a lot.) You think I just randomly don't like the guy? That is reserved for Ichiro. I plead guilty of bias against that dude. He bores me to dozing. Really, when that guy gets on base, I'm like "how did Ichiro get on? I missed it." At least Ichiro is a good defensive player. Guerrero was horrible on D.

Like I said, sometimes your logic is mindboggling.

[santana]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Ichiro the only one on there I would vote for.

He is a no brainer on my list....greatest contact hitter,,,

[brockguy]

I went to see Seattle play in 2007 just after the all star break and was delighted to finally see Ichiro play. He had just gotten MVP for the all star game and in the 2 games I went to, he went 0-9 Never saw him get on base!!!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Like I said, sometimes your logic is mindboggling.

Do you know how easy it is for one to do what you just did? Anyone can can state a totally unsubstantiated charge or accusation against a person. This is so common on here, because it's quick n' easy. You say my logic is mindboggling. That's an effort to distract, and not have to respond to the facts I used. It's a smear. When people disagree with someone, the adult thing to do is simply say you disagree, and respond to the evidence the person used to explain their point of view, or give more evidence in support of your opinion. I don't know why you can't just say you feel your evidence is the more important evidence (instead of attacking someone with a vague accusation.) I gave you a point of view. You stated the facts to support your opinion. I gave the facts supporting my opinion. I respected your opinion, and the facts you supported it with. I don't consider it mindboggling to think a HOF candidate with 108 post season at bats should have more than 5 extra base hits in the post.