Most Likely BC Winner/Single

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Not sure I understand "separators".

It's when you use a single that's not the shorter prices or most popular single amongst the crowd. If it wins, you separate yourself from the crowd in that those who hit your horse on their tickets likely spread, while you did not.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I only see one other horse that can possibly win.

You really think Summer Bird, Gio Ponti, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over have zero chance? Combined?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Not sure I understand "separators".

longer shots that other people may not consider solid singles- it's a complement.

and I agree with Capt Candyman. I think he gets a great setup in here (even though he's very adaptable) and he has run the fastest figs in the entire field on the TG's. I'll be very aggressive if he's anywhere near 8-1 (the 15-1 ML is truly a joke, I think Watchmaker is much closer to reality with 6-1)

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by philcski

longer shots that other people may not consider solid singles- it's a complement.

and I agree with Capt Candyman. I think he gets a great setup in here (even though he's very adaptable) and he has run the fastest figs in the entire field on the TG's. I'll be very aggressive if he's anywhere near 8-1 (the 15-1 ML is truly a joke, I think Watchmaker is much closer to reality with 6-1)

Never heard the term before. Thanks, Travis too. RE: Candyman it looks a whole lot better setup-wise than the KEE race did and he was pretty close there. Hope it works out.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You really think Summer Bird, Gio Ponti, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over have zero chance? Combined?

I just wish I could bet on Field vs Zenyatta + "Rip". Despite my horses having zero chance, I'd be happy to take even money. Thrilled, in fact.

--Dunbar

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You really think Summer Bird, Gio Ponti, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over have zero chance? Combined?

Summer Bird, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over....no. Gio Ponti a slight, slight chance but I think it would take Zenyatta not running her race and Rip not liking the track. If either/both of those things happen, Gio Ponti has no shot either.

[Travis Stone]

Do you have the same conviction about Zenyatta now as you had about Stardom Bound and the Kentucky Derby this spring?

[Danzig]

i don't feel very confident about zenyatta at all-what am i missing that others are seeing? she might have a big time win streak going on, but is she really the best horse in the field?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Summer Bird, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over....no. Gio Ponti a slight, slight chance but I think it would take Zenyatta not running her race and Rip not liking the track. If either/both of those things happen, Gio Ponti has no shot either.

Why does Rip have such a better chance than QR? Neither have been on this surface, and both are very talented animals. QR has never run a bad race. I am not an expert on Euros but QR's figures are every bit as good if not better than what Rip has run.

Missing how one has such a better chance than the other.

This is a new race, its not last year.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Do you have the same conviction about Zenyatta now as you had about Stardom Bound and the Kentucky Derby this spring?

I bet in March, you would have had more confidence in Stardom Bound's chances than Mine That Bird's.

I was wrong to think that Stardom Bound could have beaten Rachel and I admitted as much way back then. I would have liked her chances against the males that ran in the Derby though. And I like Zenyatta MORE this weekend.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gander

Why does Rip have such a better chance than QR? Neither have been on this surface, and both are very talented animals. QR has never run a bad race. I am not an expert on Euros but QR's figures are every bit as good if not better than what Rip has run.

Missing how one has such a better chance than the other.

This is a new race, its not last year.

true.
in that regard, is the track playing differently then a year ago at this time?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Gander

Why does Rip have such a better chance than QR? Neither have been on this surface, and both are very talented animals. QR has never run a bad race. I am not an expert on Euros but QR's figures are every bit as good if not better than what Rip has run.

Missing how one has such a better chance than the other.

This is a new race, its not last year.

I don't think Quality Road wants 10f. I'm sure Rip does. Neither has run on this stuff but it's clear that grass runners transfer form better. Besides the fact that I just think Rip is better.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Summer Bird, Einstein, Quality Road, and Twice Over....no. Gio Ponti a slight, slight chance but I think it would take Zenyatta not running her race and Rip not liking the track. If either/both of those things happen, Gio Ponti has no shot either.

How do you give Twice Over zero chance?
I am not even remotely close to being an expert when it comes to evaluating euro races, but doesn't his last race seem to indicate that he might have at least an outside shot here? Do you really know enough about him to say that he doesn't even have a chance?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Danzig

true.
in that regard, is the track playing differently then a year ago at this time?

You're asking the wrong person. I dont like the poly at all. This is the only instance I would even bet anything on it. It looks the same to me....but the horses in this gate are far different than the ones Raven Pass slapped around last year.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't think Quality Road wants 10f. I'm sure Rip does. Neither has run on this stuff but it's clear that grass runners transfer form better. Besides the fact that I just think Rip is better.

Thats where we differ. I think QR can handle 10F just fine. He finished very gamely in his last race (also 10F) and that was over a tiring sloppy surface getting beat by a very, very good horse in Summer Bird. This race sets up very well for him, the only obvious question is the poly but Rip has that to answer too.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

How do you give Twice Over zero chance?
I am not even remotely close to being an expert when it comes to evaluating euro races, but doesn't his last race seem to indicate that he might have at least an outside shot here? Do you really know enough about him to say that he doesn't even have a chance?

I don't think he does well in races with a quick pace. I've watched all of his grade one races and before he broke through in the last (a 14-1 upset), he wasn't really highly regarded over there. His lowest odds in any other grade one were 7.50-1. In the St. James's Palace, he was up fairly close and even took the lead in the last furlong but couldn't go with the top horses. In last year's Champion Stakes, he again was right up there with a furlong to go and was no match for the winner. In the Lockinge, he led early and even though he battled at the end, was again passed. In the Prince of Wales's, he again led in the final quarter and was again passed. He was crushed in the Eclipse but I'd throw that out as he's better than what we saw there. I think an American 10f race is going to be run at too quick a pace for him. Oddly, I think he'd have been a much better fit for the 12f Turf because those races usually have less pace and he could run easier up front. Because he's a grass graded stakes level horse, I'd probably have to put him in the fourth spot in a super but I just can't see him higher than that.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Gander

Thats where we differ. I think QR can handle 10F just fine. He finished very gamely in his last race (also 10F) and that was over a tiring sloppy surface getting beat by a very, very good horse in Summer Bird. This race sets up very well for him, the only obvious question is the poly but Rip has that to answer too.

I think there's a difference between horses that can handle 10f and those that want it. I think horses like Rip, Summer Bird, Gio Ponti.......and Zenyatta want it. We also saw the JCGC different. I don't think he was so game in that race and I don't think the track was any more tiring for him than for any other horse. I also don't think Summer Bird is very, very good. I think he's been made to appear so by the level of competition out there but compared to what I think actual good horses are, neither of them are very good to me. I'd have loved Quality Road in the Main Track Mile though.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Before that post draw, I would have quickly said L.A.L.... Ward says C Ball is gunna be witch, but that's a jock who isn't familiar with the Hill........ Honestly, I can't see where Ventura is better than Inf. Decision. They are close. I guess that people are thinking Inf. Decision won't be quite as good on Pro Ride, or that Ventura isn't quite as good on Poly. People, look how many times Informed Decision has settled for 2nd place. That would be...uh, never. Ventura's best race was here, but the track was favoring her move (the pace did too.) I think these two come to the wire together, and Ventura has already lost to her when they did that. Inf. Decision has never lost on the artificial. Lot of horses don't like Saratoga. Throw out her two races there, and she's won what? 10 of 11 races? Blind Luck will be tough, but I don't know how people can trust T. Baze. I mean dat sonbitch is just as likely to get her stuck, n' run a troubled 2nd. Then, he can turn right around and get some bomb to nip your single in another race. He's a rat. There's no doubt about this. See that Avatar? That's Rat Tyler (smiling after he upsets your single.) SINCE YOU SAID PRICE ISN'T AN ISSUE, I think you gotta go with a Baffert. I'd go with Lucky. He's smart enough to handle the post.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Before that post draw, I would have quickly said L.A.L.... Ward says C Ball is gunna be witch, but that's a jock who isn't familiar with the Hill........ Honestly, I can't see where Ventura is better than Inf. Decision. They are close. I guess that people are thinking Inf. Decision won't be quite as good on Pro Ride, or that Ventura isn't quite as good on Poly. People, look how many times Informed Decision has settled for 2nd place. That would be...uh, never. Ventura's best race was here, but the track was favoring her move (the pace did too.) I think these two come to the wire together, and Ventura has already lost to her when they did that. Inf. Decision has never lost on the artificial. Lot of horses don't like Saratoga. Throw out her two races there, and she's won what? 10 of 11 races? Blind Luck will be tough, but I don't know how people can trust T. Baze. I mean dat sonbitch is just as likely to get her stuck, n' run a troubled 2nd. Then, he can turn right around and get some bomb to nip your single in another race. He's a rat. There's no doubt about this. See that Avatar? That's Rat Tyler (smiling after he upsets your single.) SINCE YOU SAID PRICE ISN'T AN ISSUE, I think you gotta go with a Baffert. I'd go with Lucky. He's smart enough to handle the post.

I think you go two deep in the F&M Sprint and call it a day. One of them will win. No reason to overthink it.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think you go two deep in the F&M Sprint and call it a day. One of them will win. No reason to overthink it.

I might be wrong, but Im using Sarah and Informed as mains and Seventh Street as my back up... Trying to beat Ventura... Not using her on any tickets.
I like your strategy of using 2 and 1 will win, but I like it in the FM Turf... Forever and Midday... I cant see anyone else winning.