Derby Trail Prep Probables

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

anyone konw where Tiz the One is headed ?

Someone here close to the connections says Wood the likely place for him to try for a Derby passport.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Someone here close to the connections says Wood the likely place for him to try for a Derby passport.

I think that's a mistake. Why rush?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Because this crop is very weak and he fits with the better ones?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Because this crop is very weak and he fits with the better ones?

He fits off one race? Bernardini had a similar race, they took their time and won the Preakness and went on to have a huge year.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He fits off one race? Bernardini had a similar race, they took their time and won the Preakness and went on to have a huge year.

So did Big Brown. They didn't take their time and won the Kentucky Derby.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So did Big Brown. They didn't take their time and won the Kentucky Derby.

And 2 races later BB was a cripple. Or likely before.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Bernardini's race was a MSW and he was soundly beat sprinting in his first start.

This horse won an alw.

You really think Bernardini's campaign would have turned out differently if he had gone Derby Prep/Derby start instead of Withers/Preakness start?

I sure don't.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He fits off one race? Bernardini had a similar race, they took their time and won the Preakness and went on to have a huge year.

Not exactly true.

Bernardini broke his maiden in his second start and then ran in the Withers for his second win. This horse already won two races.

I don't totally disagree with you about Tiz the One, though he's pretty good, it's just different than Bernardini.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

And 2 races later BB was a cripple. Or likely before.

Yes, but a Kentucky Derby winning cripple who average people actually remember and he started his stud career standing for $65000(I know that's not a real #, but they are all relative).

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bernardini's race was a MSW and he was soundly beat sprinting in his first start.

This horse won an alw.

You really think Bernardini's campaign would have turned out differently if he had gone Derby Prep/Derby start instead of Withers/Preakness start?

I sure don't.

We'll never know, will we.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

And 2 races later BB was a cripple. Or likely before.

You think Big Brown was managed wrong?

His closing odds to win the Belmont and sweep the triple crown were 1/5.

Should they have given him time after the Preakness and pointed for the Jim Dandy instead?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You think Big Brown was managed wrong?

His closing odds to win the Belmont and sweep the triple crown were 1/5.

Should they have given him time after the Preakness and pointed for the Jim Dandy instead?

Of course not, he won didn't he. I have no problem striking while the iron is hot, especially when you can vet yourself to the moon....until you can't.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Dutrow could start a goat in the Derby and it would probably be less than 90/1.

Heck, if IEAH buys the goat - and Borel rides the goat - and Dutrow tells reporters "This is the best goat I've ever trained..I might go all in, babe" .. I think you're looking at about only a 12/1 shot.

A few columnists might even pick it to win the race ... but a lack of dapples and a very weak 5th generation pedigree is sure to keep it from replacing Interactif and Awesome Act from the respective 3rd and 4th spots they currently hold in the 'Haskin's Derby Dozen' top 12 list.

[Alan07]

http://drf.com/news/article/111485.html

[Kasept]

Tom Albertrani just said on ATR that another option for Odysseus is the Street Sense approach to Derby via the Blue Grass. He said while he isn't a fan of racing on synthetics, the benefit is a single ship to Kentucky rather than one to NY for Wood and then a second one to KY for Derby. They are also seriously considering traing Odysseus up to the Derby without another start.

[Merlinsky]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/111464.html

Huh, apparently for Matz it's not 'do we try Lentenor in a G1 Derby prep?' but 'which one?' Here I was thinking they just decided not to go and it turns out they're still thinking. The interview was before we learned Eskendereya wasn't going in the FL Derby, so I wonder if it's more likely that he'll do that now, but it could be the Wood where of course Esky IS going.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.drf.com/news/article/111464.html

Huh, apparently for Matz it's not 'do we try Lentenor in a G1 Derby prep?' but 'which one?' Here I was thinking they just decided not to go and it turns out they're still thinking. The interview was before we learned Eskendereya wasn't going in the FL Derby, so I wonder if it's more likely that he'll do that now, but it could be the Wood where of course Esky IS going.

Apparently he will run Lentenor in the FL Derby..

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Apparently he will run Lentenor in the FL Derby..

After Esken dropped out you had to figure that.

[Kasept]

FLORIDA DERBY DRAW

1 Soaring Empire (Castro/Gambolati)
2 Lentenor (Garcia/Matz)
3 Pulsion (Nakatani/Biancone)
4 Pleasant Prince (Leparoux/W. Ward)
5 Game On Dude (Rose/Mareina)
6 First Dude (Dominguez/Romans)
7 Rule (Velazquez/Pletcher)
8 Ice Box (Lezcano/Zito)
9 Miner's Reserve (Desormeaux/Zito)
10 Best Actor (Castellano/Catalano)
11 Radiohead (Prado/R. Dutrow)

[lemoncrush]

I knew this would happen.
Added Fast Alex in one of my R2R stables today (earlier than I need to) and then see he's out of the LA Derby an hour later.

Typical.