DERBY NEWS (4/26): Filly in, Rule out; Lucky, Noble's work best..

[Linny]

Endorsement has had his work pushed back twice. Any scoop there?

[JerseyJ]

These workouts, and workouts in general mean very little with regards to a horse's respective chances in a race. To me there are only three situations where workouts mean anything of value and in some cases even when it appears that these workouts mean something, they end up not meaning much anyway. The only times when workouts to mean mean anything and give any signs away are with Maidens, First-Time Starters, and Comebackers, are the only times when workouts mean much of anything with regards to actually using the workouts to potentially mean much of anything. At this point, you will not gain anything from Derby week workouts other than overreaction and overanalyzation.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

These workouts, and workouts in general mean very little with regards to a horse's respective chances in a race. To me there are only three situations where workouts mean anything of value and in some cases even when it appears that these workouts mean something, they end up not meaning much anyway. The only times when workouts to mean mean anything and give any signs away are with Maidens, First-Time Starters, and Comebackers, are the only times when workouts mean much of anything with regards to actually using the workouts to potentially mean much of anything. At this point, you will not gain anything from Derby week workouts other than overreaction and overanalyzation.

Strongly disagree. These reports often point me towards a ready horse and get me off of someone who looks good on paper. It's very subjective, but I trust Welsch and a handful of other guys who have an eye for this sort of thing.

[tector]

If you want to beat the chalk, and think there is too much speed in the race, and toss the horses with physical/distance questions, how many horses are there left to focus on?

Not a lot.

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Strongly disagree. These reports often point me towards a ready horse and get me off of someone who looks good on paper. It's very subjective, but I trust Welsch and a handful of other guys who have an eye for this sort of thing.

I agree. I've seen great works lead to stellar performances, Barbaro and Street Sense come to mind. I thought in both cases those works were the best of the weeks up to Derby day, and the performances were sensational.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by mclem0822

I agree. I've seen great works lead to stellar performances, Barbaro and Street Sense come to mind. I thought in both cases those works were the best of the weeks up to Derby day, and the performances were sensational.

Agree- Smarty Jones as well.

For me, it's not really a game changer unless I see a favorite working poorly- like what was the case on Saturday. For this year, Dublin is an easy toss based on what he's done in the mornings, and no one else really moves up or down now that Eskendereya is out.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by philcski

Agree- Smarty Jones as well.

For me, it's not really a game changer unless I see a favorite working poorly- like what was the case on Saturday. For this year, Dublin is an easy toss based on what he's done in the mornings, and no one else really moves up or down now that Eskendereya is out.

I'm personally moving Devil May Care, Super Saver, and Paddy up, and moving Endorsement down unless he does something, along with the aforementioned Dublin. Not sold on Paddy on dirt-the work was on a wet track, but everyone was gushing over it and he will be a huge price.

[Antitrust32]

So Barbaro, Street Sense & Smarty Jones all had good works so that made them win? Werent they also favored or close to it and shown the most talent heading into the race?

Works are incredibly overrated. Unless a horse is a first out maiden they can be helpful.

Really, like Philski said, the only thing you can take from Derby works is if the horse looks sore or injured. Besides that all these horses are nice horses and all should look "dappled" and work like they normally do. Doesnt mean anything..

Except for redboarding after the race when a 50-1 shot win and people say "oh the horse has dapples and was working so great thats why he won"

[tector]

There is a horse who is working well, whose every race has been faster than previous, who is not a need-to-lead type, and who won a major Derby prep race, and yet is getting no mention at all, which may mean he will be substantially overlaid on Saturday, especially since his trainer has tossed a notorious doughnut in this race.

I'm intrigued. Call me crazy but....

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

NOBLE'S PROMISE (:48.4) worked with Fist of Rage (:49.0) with an :24.3 opening and out 5F 1:02.2 with a spirited gallop out. Derby is the wrong race for him, but he certainly looks in very good form moving towards Saturday as least...

Wrong race? With a proper ride this guy is as good as anything in the race.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by tector

There is a horse who is working well, whose every race has been faster than previous, who is not a need-to-lead type, and who won a major Derby prep race, and yet is getting no mention at all, which may mean he will be substantially overlaid on Saturday, especially since his trainer has tossed a notorious doughnut in this race.

I'm intrigued. Call me crazy but....

I think him winning might be Impazible.

NT

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Wrong race? With a proper ride this guy is as good as anything in the race.

He's a much better fit for the Epsom Derby, which is why he was a late entry to that race.

[Linny]

Works are important if you know what you are looking at. I sometimes wonder if the writers that cover them have any idea what they are seeing or if they are just parrotting the trainers comments. Some writers seem so dazzled by the experience that every horse looks AMAZING! Guess what, they are Derby colts, they are supposed to look great. They are not supposed to look like $5k horses at Beulah.
What I want is for a Derby reporter to linger in the shedrow to see a concerned looking trainer consulting with a farrier and tell me about it. That trainer told the press this morning that his horse has never been better and no one in the group knows what a quarter crack looks like. Sadly, for that kind of scoop I need to go to Indian Charlie.
Did no one in the media think something was up with Eskendereya when all of TAP's others trained on schedule? I didn't see anything about it if they did.

[tector]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think him winning might be Impazible.

NT

I would agree, but I am not swallowing Lucky's chalk (he just has too many adventures for me) and I am against all the speed and the speed-to-be-converted-to stalkers. I am also tossing any syn horse who has shown that the dirt is not his bag, or any horse who has apparent physical problems or obvious distance limtations.

Once you do that, you ain't looking at a lot--AA, Ice Box (a pick up the pieces sort), and...? They are all equally slow (or worse) past that point.

To be fair, I do need to look at the filly closer.

[tjfla]

I still love when we hear the horse ran bad cause he was cut up and clipped heels or he got stuck in traffic

The Derby is a 20 horse race and 80% get a cut or are stuck in traffic.

If u get in trouble in a 8 horse race,what happens in a 20 horse race??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Linny

Works are important if you know what you are looking at. I sometimes wonder if the writers that cover them have any idea what they are seeing or if they are just parrotting the trainers comments. Some writers seem so dazzled by the experience that every horse looks AMAZING! Guess what, they are Derby colts, they are supposed to look great. They are not supposed to look like $5k horses at Beulah.
What I want is for a Derby reporter to linger in the shedrow to see a concerned looking trainer consulting with a farrier and tell me about it. That trainer told the press this morning that his horse has never been better and no one in the group knows what a quarter crack looks like. Sadly, for that kind of scoop I need to go to Indian Charlie.
Did no one in the media think something was up with Eskendereya when all of TAP's others trained on schedule? I didn't see anything about it if they did.

I think a lot of times what they can write is different from what they think. On Saturday, Mike Welsch was ADAMANT that Eskendereya was not going to run. He really couldn't report that though until it was made official- which happened to be the next day.

[lemoncrush]

With the defections and possible future defections, where do the next 3 or 4 horses stand as far as wanting in (Make Music, A Little Warm, etc..).

And....where is Drosselmeyer as far as earnings? If something strange happens, would his connections want in? Especially if Winstar loses both Endorsement and Rule from the race?

In this field, he all of a sudden looks a lot more interesting than many of the probable starters. Does Mott even have him in Kentucky?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Linny

Works are important if you know what you are looking at. I sometimes wonder if the writers that cover them have any idea what they are seeing or if they are just parrotting the trainers comments. Some writers seem so dazzled by the experience that every horse looks AMAZING! Guess what, they are Derby colts, they are supposed to look great. They are not supposed to look like $5k horses at Beulah.
What I want is for a Derby reporter to linger in the shedrow to see a concerned looking trainer consulting with a farrier and tell me about it. That trainer told the press this morning that his horse has never been better and no one in the group knows what a quarter crack looks like. Sadly, for that kind of scoop I need to go to Indian Charlie.
Did no one in the media think something was up with Eskendereya when all of TAP's others trained on schedule? I didn't see anything about it if they did.

What's a little annoying is all the attention paid to the "gallop outs" on these works. It's almost as if these guys expect them to gallop out at the same pace as the work proper (never mind that we have no clue what the instructions were to the rider).

The pinnacle was Sidney's Candy breeze in a paint-peeling 1:11+, but because he only galloped out in 1:26, the work apparently sucked.

It's almost as if a sub :14 post-work 1/8th is more important than the actual workout itself. I guess they're just trying hard to get an edge by looking for clues from things other people take for granted, but to put them center stage is a bit excessive.

These are probably the same guys who were all over Tiago in the Belmont in '07 when he passed five horses after the wire in the Derby (never mind he was still under a drive from Mike Smith while everyone else was standing up).

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Linny

Works are important if you know what you are looking at. I sometimes wonder if the writers that cover them have any idea what they are seeing or if they are just parrotting the trainers comments. Some writers seem so dazzled by the experience that every horse looks AMAZING! Guess what, they are Derby colts, they are supposed to look great. They are not supposed to look like $5k horses at Beulah.
What I want is for a Derby reporter to linger in the shedrow to see a concerned looking trainer consulting with a farrier and tell me about it. That trainer told the press this morning that his horse has never been better and no one in the group knows what a quarter crack looks like. Sadly, for that kind of scoop I need to go to Indian Charlie.
Did no one in the media think something was up with Eskendereya when all of TAP's others trained on schedule? I didn't see anything about it if they did.

exactly. all the derby horses look like a million bucks at this stage. The only important thing to take from Derby week works are if the horse looks really off. Then again, hopefully said horse would be scratched from the race. I do believe that people, including Steve, were mentioning how Eskendereya looked sore and wasnt training right.

I would like the reporters to be able to go into the barns and check to see if there is any really good juice laying around. That would be helpful!

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by tector

I would agree, but I am not swallowing Lucky's chalk (he just has too many adventures for me) and I am against all the speed and the speed-to-be-converted-to stalkers. I am also tossing any syn horse who has shown that the dirt is not his bag, or any horse who has apparent physical problems or obvious distance limtations.

Once you do that, you ain't looking at a lot--AA, Ice Box (a pick up the pieces sort), and...? They are all equally slow (or worse) past that point.

To be fair, I do need to look at the filly closer.

Sidney's Candy is such an X factor not knowing how he will like Dirt & also how he will rate. I dont really believe he is a speed-to-be-converted-to stalker. He may rate well naturally.