136th Kentucky Derby (PP's)

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Stupid question:

Are these the actual post positions or just the draw? I thought they had(used to have?) some stupid TV special for the draw at night.

Actual posts.

[parsixfarms]

I realize that she was green in the Bonnie Miss, but what's the reason for Pletcher putting blinkers on Devil May Care?

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by asudevil

CA phucked!

They were ****ed the day Poly was installed

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by philcski

Agreed. Just a matter of how much ground he can save going into the first turn. I think it's an ok draw, especially for a horse that has never taken dirt before, might actually help him settle without getting splattered.

Very tough spot for Talamo to make his Derby debut.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by philcski

Agreed. Just a matter of how much ground he can save going into the first turn. I think it's an ok draw, especially for a horse that has never taken dirt before, might actually help him settle without getting splattered.

Why do I see him getting the Brother Derek trip?

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Stupid question:

Are these the actual post positions or just the draw? I thought they had(used to have?) some stupid TV special for the draw at night.

They changed it this year. Simple, just like a normal draw.
These are the actual posts.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

WOW! 1986 since the last rail horse won.

Usually there are twenty, or near twenty, starters in the derby.

1986+20=2006.

Doesn't seem so horrible to me.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by tjfla

They both bad!! Just saying Sidney's Candy will have trouble getting over and LAL will at least have a little space with Ice Box next to him until the ALL fall on him

I don't know what you mean by "getting over," but if you mean getting to the rail, yes, that will be near impossible. But he doesn't need to do that. He's got enough speed to get a decent position into the turn while sitting just off the lead, and like I said, that was his best shot to win anyway.

And what if Ice Box breaks inward? Assuming that LaL even gets out of the gate cleanly is assuming that nobody in the first five posts or so breaks inward.

Originally Posted by philcski

I think it's an ok draw, especially for a horse that has never taken dirt before, might actually help him settle without getting splattered.

Precisely.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Very tough spot for Talamo to make his Derby debut.

Video review for him
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBeoZUsnXdc

[cakes44]

The 1-hole is not good for LAL, but I think it will at least force Gomez to pull him back and make one big run, which I would think is the way he needs to run to win this race anyway.

[slotdirt]

I think Lookin at Lucky will be fine where he is. I also think post position is overrated considering what Big Brown did a couple years ago, or how posts 18-20 ran like 2-4-5 in the 2005 Derby. If you like Sidney's Candy, good for you, you're going to get much better odds on him based on his position.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think Lookin at Lucky will be fine where he is. I also think post position is overrated considering what Big Brown did a couple years ago, or how posts 18-20 ran like 2-4-5 in the 2005 Derby. If you like Sidney's Candy, good for you, you're going to get much better odds on him based on his position.

Lucky will find trouble again, and keep running, and will find the board, but I can't play him to win. Not at the price, not in a post that is going to assure he once again finds trouble.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ARyan

Lucky will find trouble again, and keep running, and will find the board, but I can't play him to win. Not at the price, not in a post that is going to assure he once again finds trouble.

I agree wholeheartedly. I think he will run well but not win and he's an underlay in here considering he isn't even as fast as American Lion who is 30-1.

[dalakhani]

Conveyance drew nice. Lets just say he relaxes a little. I don't see any horse in here that is much better.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Conveyance drew nice. Lets just say he relaxes a little. I don't see any horse in here that is much better.

Agree as well. Turning for home, in the slop, maybe he gets away.

[randallscott35]

SC will be a lot higher than 5-1. Battaglia is smoking something with that line. My guess. 10-1 out there.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

SC will be a lot higher than 5-1. Battaglia is smoking something with that line. My guess. 10-1 out there.

I don't think he'll be that high, but yeah, it seems like Battaglia didn't have a contingency plan for the favorites drawing inside and out. I also doubt LaL will be lower than 4-1.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think he'll be that high, but yeah, it seems like Battaglia didn't have a contingency plan for the favorites drawing inside and out. I also doubt LaL will be lower than 4-1.

At least he's not calling the race. I think Ice Box drew ok if Lezcano can not get pinned into the turn....LAL below 4-1 I think.

[lemoncrush]

With Sidney's past problems stumbling at the gate, the 20 spot actualy ensures he doesn't get sandwiched and left without any hope to recover.
He still has got a lot of work to do, but he has enough tactical speed where I think he can overcome the wide post.
Lookin at Lucky...I have my doubts.

[randallscott35]

AL's odds are screwed up as well. He won't be 30-1 in there IMO.