Saturday 11/19 Play Along Thread

[Alan07]

CD #9 $3 Double 3 / 6,9,12 $ 9.00
CD #9 $10 WP 3 $ 20.00
DED #6 $5 WP 9 $ 10.00

[MaTH716]

Going to get something to eat, so I'm putting this in now.

.50 late 4 Hollywood race 6
2,7,8,9
1,4
1,7
2,4,5,10
$32

[jms62]

They really should bs ashamed of themselves at Delta. Wire to fuking wire race after race.

[herkhorse]

Delta 7th

6.00 ex box 3-8-10

1.00 pick 3 3-7-8-10/8/123

[jms62]

Dear Bob Baffert

You have **** going into 2012 Derby trail. Good Luck.

[pointman]

Hol 6

$1-$80
6- 2,5,7,8,9
7- 4
8- 1,2,6,7
9- 2,4,9,10

$20W 9
$20DD 2,9/4

[MaTH716]

Well that was a s.hitty 5 minutes. Watch my early pick 4 blow up in the final leg and then watch my late one hang in the stretch and lose by a nose.
Just lovely.

Play the rest as a pick 3
1,4
1,7
2,4,5,10
$16

[GPK]

I know this is after the fact and I had no dog in the fight, but I can't imagine Carlos Montalvo is getting a ton of quality mounts in NY. I have watched him enough through the past few years at TBD to know that he is more than capable on turf. Formulator stats show the sire wins with 13% of his turf starters.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by GPK

I know this is after the fact and I had no dog in the fight, but I can't imagine Carlos Montalvo is getting a ton of quality mounts in NY. I have watched him enough through the past few years at TBD to know that he is more than capable on turf. Formulator stats show the sire wins with 13% of his turf starters.

I can think of one other Disco Rico that won at a similar price first turf this year, but I never could've had that horse just because of that. I don't think the jockey is relevant either way, but if Montalvo's not getting good mounts in general in NY, why take him in this spot.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I can think of one other Disco Rico that won at a similar price first turf this year, but I never could've had that horse just because of that. I don't think the jockey is relevant either way, but if Montalvo's not getting good mounts in general in NY, why take him in this spot.

There was no good reason to have the horse. Had I played the race, the only way I catch him is with the all button. Admittedly, I have watched very few races from Aqueduct thus far. I will look through the PP's most days and have made a couple spot plays here and there, but that is about it. Montalvo may be riding like absolute sh*t so far this meet, I have no idea, but the mounts he has been getting have been far from "live". I was merely pointing out that I have seen him ride enough in the past to know that he is very capable on the grass. To be fair though, most of those rides have been at TBD where the jock colony isn't exactly 5 star.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Aqu 2nd
.50 pick 4
5,7,11
9,10
5,6,8,16
2,3,5,8
$48 $104.25

Good Luck

nice work!

[GPK]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Aqu 2nd
.50 pick 4
5,7,11
9,10
5,6,8,16
2,3,5,8
$48 $104.25

Good Luck

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by GPK

instant karma gonna get you.......

[GPK]

Originally Posted by geeker2

instant karma gonna get you.......

The Governor needs to put his ass back under house arrest

[GPK]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I can think of one other Disco Rico that won at a similar price first turf this year, but I never could've had that horse just because of that. I don't think the jockey is relevant either way, but if Montalvo's not getting good mounts in general in NY, why take him in this spot.

Brian, this all got me thinking. I know his mounts have looked hopeless on paper, but I wanted to know just how bad they were. The PDF charts are available to last Saturday, so I went back and checked the odds of all his mounts the past week, starting with last Sat.

75.25-1
34.50-1
45.00-1
68.75-1
51.00-1
53.50-1
9.30-1 (5 horse field in the May Night Stakes)
123.25-1
75.25-1
24.50-1 (5 horse field in the Sunny and Mild Stakes)
51.50-1
36.25-1
54.75-1
53.00-1
85.75-1
37.50-1
66.25-1
52.25-1


Thanks for humoring me, I'm bored.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by GPK

The Governor needs to put his ass back under house arrest

After a couple of those beats I took today, it kinda made me wish that I was on death row.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Since I am married, I am essentially on death row.

FTFY

[hockey2315]

I hear all that and wasn't questioning his ability (don't know one way or the other and I trust your judgment), but if he's getting poor mounts, then what's to say this horse was any different? It's not like he was ignored because of who was riding. . . if a middle of the road guy was aboard, would the price really have been that much lower? The trainer didn't have a winner over the past five years either. . . I think we agree that the horse was impossible beforehand, and I think we can both point to little things to suggest him after the fact, but I can't beat myself up about a horse like this.

I'm sort of interested in the sire angle, though. . . I never seem to have the best luck with huge longshot angles, probably because the sample size is so small when you uncover something and has to be huge for it to bear out, but the fact that the sire had two first time turfers at 50-1+ this year is at least something to keep an eye on. Here's the other one: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...int=on&src=tdn

He hasn't been in New York for long (previously in MD), so maybe this is something to keep an eye on going forward. . .

[GPK]

It's funny that both those bomb winners have come routing, as pedigree query states Disco Rico was a champion sprinter.

[Dahoss]

I don't know much about Montalvo other than seeing his name at tracks over the years, but he seems like a decent enough rider, at least on grass. He's not getting any mounts, but his ride on Court of Dreams in late October was very solid.