I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Elusive Quality was a sensational performer sprinting -- he failed to win a dirt route after repeated tries.

Elusive Quality never ran a race around two turns on the main track.

He won his only start beyond a mile, in an 8.5f allowance at Belmont in his third career start.

He was also 2nd in a 8f allowance and well beaten after setting a scorching pace in the Met Mile in his only other main track starts beyond 7f.

He may still hold the course record for a mile on turf at Belmont, winning the Poker in 1:31 and change.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

No, unless that happens, then yes.

Ha.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Elusive Quality never ran a race around two turns on the main track.

He won his only start beyond a mile, in an 8.5f allowance at Belmont in his third career start.

He was also 2nd in a 8f allowance and well beaten after setting a scorching pace in the Met Mile in his only other main track starts beyond 7f.

He may still hold the course record for a mile on turf at Belmont, winning the Poker in 1:31 and change.

You're right. I pulled up his form and had him mixed up.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

No, unless that happens, then yes.

I was just throwing out the only scenario I can come up with that has greater than a 1% chance of happening. That is for IHA not getting HOY.

No, then yes... OK I got it, thanks.

Paynter has as much of a chance for HoY as you would if we threw a saddle on you..

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

You're right. I pulled up his form and had him mixed up.

Based on what is shown here, Elusive Quality looked like a run off sprinter who if he didn't have the lead at the top of the lane, was all done. Never won more than a G3 is surprising as well. Those GP Beyers jump off the page, which GP Beyers still do to this day for early speed. For some reason I thought EQ was better on the track than this...

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yikes.

Creative Cause beat I'll Have Another at 6.5 furlongs in the Best Pal at age 2. Only a nose seperated them at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby.

Basically -- uncommonly run classic distances are the only thing separating these two horses on actual racing ability. 99.5% of the races in this country are run at 9fs or less.

In terms of the other areas -- Creative Cause owns I'll Have Another. Comparing the pedigrees is like comparing a $100 steak to a McDouble from McDonald's.

In terms of looks -- I assume Creative Cause is better looking. Horses with route pedigree don't work 10.40 and sell for peanuts if they have looks.

And -- Doug O'Neill VS Harrington.

For someone to pay as much for I'll Have Another as they would for Creative Cause -- they'd have to be absolutely deranged.

It is hard to say what impact the TC win would have because there hasn't been one in so long and the breeding game was far different then. Being out of KY keeps me a lot further out of the loop on these topics but you would think that the lack of noise on the stallion front concerning IHA would be a negative sign for his stallion career prospects in terms of a mega deal. However like i said I havent heard anything but that desnt mean something isnt brewing.

Creative Cause is going to stand somewhere for 15k unless he pads his resume further.

IHA is a good looking, correct horse. I saw him at OBS and liked him a lot but thought he would bring more than my budget would allow. Barry Eiserman thought he would bring between 30-50 (I think reserve was 19900 or 29900, can't remember) and I thought he was being pessimistic at 30, didnt think he would bring less than 50. I have no idea what CC looks like. I have to say that I honestly don't know that the majority of breeders even look at the stallions very closely anymore. Seems as though they would rather breed for high marks on paper, nicks and such which may have something to do with the ability of surgeons to straighten legs out as foals. Unless a horse has drastically bad conformation I don't think it will hurt them too much

[pmayjr]

Dumb question- was Smarty going to stud the last breeding mega deal?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Creative Cause is going to stand somewhere for 15k unless he pads his resume further.

Agreed. I don't think CC is all that much, at least on dirt. Also, it's not like GC has been a superb sire of sires.

Bode is a no brainer.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Dumb question- was Smarty going to stud the last breeding mega deal?

Technically speaking, maybe.

If you count Europe, probably not.

If you don't count horses like Ghostzapper (200k first year fee but not syndicated), Curlin (big money as a 3yo), Any Given Saturday (40 mil breeding rights) and Hard Spun (another 3yo purchase), than yeah, probably.

[Indian Charlie]

Oops. Forgot Big Brown.

So, no.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Dumb question- was Smarty going to stud the last breeding mega deal?

Id say so...but hes a horse owned by small timers...a lot of the big horses lately have been owned by folks who stand their own after retirement. No deals to be made with the bernardinis of this world.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Agreed. I don't think CC is all that much, at least on dirt. Also, it's not like GC has been a superb sire of sires.

Bode is a no brainer.

Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.

Honest question, is California synth now a respected surface? or should some of these efforts be dismissed?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by PeteMugg

Honest question, is California synth now a respected surface? or should some of these efforts be dismissed?

Creative Cause beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe on dirt with a 102 Beyer and a 0 on TG the last time he wore blinkers.

He was beaten a nose by I'll Have Another in the SA Derby.

Everyone was certain Creative Cause was physically amiss going into the Kentucky Derby. He was missing training, Bruno De Jullio was saying he never looked worse, he had an issue with a foot and all this other stuff,

That's a tough horse. He's got a low ROI cowboy training him, he was raced heavy at age 2 and keeps answering the bell. The other two big horses are being training by a couple of alchemists ... and they both missed a lot of dances at age 2.

I just prefer Creative Cause as the better sire prospect. Bodemeister obviously 2nd best. I'll Have Another might be the 15th best stallion prospect in this crop.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Creative Cause won his debut in 56.20 for 5fs and got a 98 Beyer. In his 2nd start -- he made short work of I'll Have Another in the Best Pal at 6.5f.

Creative Cause is a Giant's Causeway out of a millionaire Grade 1 winning router racemare.

Creative Cause is trained by a 71-year-old low ROI guy -- he claims his two best horses prior to CC are Swiss Yodeler and Buck Trout. Swiss Yodeler was 0-for-15 with only a single 2nd place finish after the age of two. Buck Trout won two races his entire career.

Speed: check
Precocity: check
Pedigree: check
Weak trainer: check

This horse has more durability and a better 2yo form as well.

Most of the good Giant's Causeways are slugs early on.

Doug O' Neill got Thor's Echo from Harrington after a maiden race -- and he ended up eventually winning the Breeders Cup Sprint by 4 lengths and being voted champion sprinter. Thor's Echo was sired by the mighty Swiss Yodeler.

Wasn't his debut at DMR though? Also, the dam you like to keep mentioning is a calbred with pretty unfashionable breeding.

[Charismatic1]

I think it could get up to $60-70 million if he wins the Triple Crown. A few farms will find that simply having the Triple Crown Messiah on their stallion roster is worth that bill.

When you add the inevitable interest from Japanese stallion stations, it's going to be hefty, because the Japanese don't view or value our pedigrees the same way. They go after American horses that can win big 10-furlong races: Roses in May, Silver Charm, Charismatic, War Emblem, and obviously Sunday Silence from two decades ago. (I may be forgetting a couple obvious studs.) They made a STRONG push for Tiznow as well. I do not think a Japanese farm will get I'll Have Another, but I mention their interest because it will drive the price tag up quite considerably.

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires. Fees for freshmen have fluctuated so much in the last twelve years or so.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires.

He will most likely be standing for $7,500 when his first crop are 5-year-olds.

Overdriven will stand for $7,500 in his first crop -- and will almost certainly be a much better stallion despite having a harder road initially.

Take Charge Indy is A. P. Indy-Take Charge Lady and won his debut sprinting and had a much better 2-year-old season for now hapless trainer Pay Byrne.

Algorithams is an undefeated son of Bernardini who won at a mile with a 5 length win over Hansen and earned a big figure last out.

Fed Biz cost $950,000 as a yearling and is a speedier router than I'll Have Another. He beat Blueskiesandrainbows by 12.5 lengths in his last start -- and that one was 3rd by a half length to I'll Have Another at 9 furlongs in the SA Derby.

I'll Have Another has never separated himself as a top performer at any distance of 9fs or less.

That's obviously important for a top stallion prospect because 99.5% of all races are at less than 9f -- and it worrisome because of the short comings of his 2yo campaign, the short comings of his pedigree, and the short comings of his lack of success in auction rings. It's also not encouraging that he's trained by an alchemist.

If you pay $70 million for him solely because he was able to wear down Bodemeister (a horse with no 2yo foundation) twice after 9 furlongs --- what does that make Bode worth considering he has a way more fashionable pedigree and superior raw speed?

Sunday Silence was by a sire who threw about ten different Grade 1 winners and multiple champions. Sunday Silence was out of a dam who was a multiple Graded Stakes winning race mare. Flower Alley stands for $7,500. Why wouldn't he suddenly become worth a fortune as well?

[Charismatic1]

Maybe when he's 5, sure. However, I have seen many horses with fashionable pedigrees and comparable attributes to the horses you mentioned also drop to $10,000 or less after a much higher freshman fee. Then, there are horses like lowly Cal-bred Tiznow, who didn't excel at 9 furlongs or less and known more for his grit than his talent. Many were surprised when he started at $30k or $35k, but he's up to $75k now and could rightly pull more.

BTW, you speak as though he has NO early speed. He has shown plenty. Sure, he was a tad further back in the Derby and Preakness compared to the Lewis and SA Derby, but how's that a penalty? Nobody held a complete lack of early speed against Tapit.

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

[Charismatic1]

As for Flower Alley, Elusive Quality was about $10-15k when Smarty Jones hit it big for him. Now, he is $50k, was up to $100k. Who's to say the same boost won't happen for Flower Alley? We know his fee will go up. Breeders will take another look at him, too.

I've never heard "he was a great two-turn horse up to 9 furlongs, must breed to him." Unless he wins a big one-turn mile race, that whole raw speed argument for Bodemeister is irrelevant. Breeders drool over champion milers and Classic winners (including BC Classic). If the horse has a flashy pedigree, they drool an even bigger mess. Despite the criticism, I do still think Bode can be a very good stallion. He'll have every opportunity. His speed may end up being a tiebreaker when breeders consider him versus five or six other comparably priced stallions, but that's the difference - I'll Have Another will be a group of 1 if he wins the Triple Crown.

[Calzone Lord]

Tiznow was a two time Breeders Cup Classic winner who had a brother finish 2nd in the BC Classic. His dam dropped 4 stakes winners. He was a very good performer and ran a 119 Beyer in the Goodwood at 9 furlongs as a 3-year-old.

Tapit's dam was a sister to champion sprinter Rubiano.

A $75,000 stud fee for I'll Have Another is insanity. There are 10 to 15 horses from this crop who will make better stallions. He's an OBS cheapie like Silver Charm and Skip Away.