Polytrack devils advocates please respond

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Guys I say give it until tonight to talk about the poly. We will know most of the answers to our questions(Can good horses run over it, Do dirt horses like it, Do turf horses like it, does it matter if they ran over it before)

Give it a few hours and every question will be answered

Friends don't let friends drive drunk or wager on polytrack. You gotta take away the keys, and take away the DRF.

Originally Posted by oracle80

I agree with that to a lesser extent than you do. But agree somewhat. I'm not irrational.
But we had a firm policy at the old ESPN board where many of us came from that if you didn't post the thoughts before the race and tried to chirp afterwards, you were scorned and ridiculed and lambasted by the entire board. It kept redboarding to a minimum.
People who don't have DRF's or PP's who haven't seen a race thats being discussed(if its over already) have no business telling those who watched a race what they saw.
People who don't post thoughts before a race have no business crowing about how easy and obvious something is afterwards.
Maybe its a NY thing. You do that here at the track afterwards and are liable to get strangled. Its a beautiful thing.

I don't believe I crowed about any of the Turfway races after the fact if I didn't have a wager on them.

The point I was trying to make with the Falcons-Saints game is that partly due to the new turf surface the hometeam had a big advantage. And that's pretty much what happened on KY cup day. Every stakes race was won by a local trainer and every jockey outside of Mike Smith who won a stakes race rides at Turfway.

Will this home field advantage last? Of course not. Through time the top trainers and horses will dominate on this surface just like they do on turf and dirt.

Originally Posted by todko

I live about 45-50 minutes north of Turfway, and I've played the poly probably as much as anyone.

One of the problems for the handicapper is that Turfway keeps changing the poly. Some here probably don't know, but back in March they scraped the top 3 inches off and really didn't publicize the move. I found out through some contacts in Louisville who ran horses there. This "insider" info (if you want to call it that) literally saved my posterior from possibly a losing season. The scraped it to lower the kickback and make the surface faster going into Lanes End Day. Eventually the news hit the press in a limited manner.

This was before the recent changes (scraping it again and adding a new top layer with spandex, wire/cable coverings, and heavier wax coating for the sand) during the off season this summer.

It's a tough surface to play and it's even tougher because they keep changing it. It's like trying to hit a moving target. If it was supposedly that great from the start (as Turfway and Keeneland said) then why all the changes?

I'll tell you clearly, trainers don't necessarily hate it but they also say that they have horses that just don't run on it. I've even heard the term "non-poly" horse being used.

No, I'm not going to name names. And the reason for that is, around here, if a trainer or jockey speaks poorly about a track then that same trainer or jockey is likely to be escorted off the premises and told to never return. Just ask Rodney Prescott (or even Shane Sellers [whereever he is these days]),

Circular Quay is obviously the best horse in the race. Do I have faith enough to take a plunge at those odds. Not a chance. Circular Quay might be a "non-poly" horse and to take that risk at those odds is truly foolish. Yeah, throw him in your 50 cent P4s and at the top of your dime supers, but don't bet the house on him. It's not worth it at those odds.

Its exactly why I won't name names of the trainers who have told me the same.
Noone wants to be labeled as an opponent of whats supposedly so humane.
As if running races on deeper cushioned deeper surfaced dirt tracks isn't humane.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I don't believe I crowed about any of the Turfway races after the fact if I didn't have a wager on them.

The point I was trying to make with the Falcons-Saints game is that partly due to the new turf surface the hometeam had a big advantage. And that's pretty much what happened on KY cup day. Every stakes race was won by a local trainer and every jockey outside of Mike Smith who won a stakes race rides at Turfway.

Will this home field advantage last? Of course not. Through time the top trainers and horses will dominate on this surface just like they do on turf and dirt.

No pillow they wont. many horses just hate it. Its not something they will grow accustomed to, just like grass, they like it or they dont.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I'm going to the OTB today and i'll pick up a form and let you know. Chances are i'll be siding with CQ for the simple fact he likes to close. BUT if the track favors speed due to horses losing footing i'll probably look elsewhere.

Really this new surface is no different than the new turf at the Superdome. Even the greatest athletes fail at something they have no experience over. Just look at Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn that game. It looked like they were playing on a skating rink.

Advantage nawlins.

They were tripping over the players with the gold/black and white uniforms

Originally Posted by todko

I live about 45-50 minutes north of Polyway (Turfway), and I've played the poly probably as much as anyone.

One of the problems for the handicapper is that Polyway keeps changing the poly. Some here probably don't know, but back in March they scraped the top 3 inches off and really didn't publicize the move. I found out through some contacts in Louisville who ran horses there. This "insider" info (if you want to call it that) literally saved my posterior from possibly a losing season. The scraped it to lower the kickback and make the surface faster going into Lanes End Day. Eventually the news hit the press in a limited manner.

This was before the recent changes (scraping it again and adding a new top layer with spandex, wire/cable coverings, and heavier wax coating for the sand) during the off season this summer.

It's a tough surface to play and it's even tougher because they keep changing it. It's like trying to hit a moving target. If it was supposedly that great from the start (as Polyway and Keeneland said) then why all the changes?

I'll tell you clearly, trainers don't necessarily hate it but they also say that they have horses that just don't run on it. I've even heard the term "non-poly" horse being used.

No, I'm not going to name names. And the reason for that is, around here, if a trainer or jockey speaks poorly about a track then that same trainer or jockey is likely to be escorted off the premises and told to never return. Just ask Rodney Prescott (or even Shane Sellers [whereever he is these days]),

Circular Quay is obviously the best horse in the race. Do I have faith enough to take a plunge at those odds. Not a chance. Circular Quay might be a "non-poly" horse and to take that risk at those odds is truly foolish. Yeah, throw him in your 50 cent P4s and at the top of your dime supers, but don't bet the house on him. It's not worth it at those odds.

During the winter meet I had heard through the grapevine that over 20 horses had serious hoof problems due to the stuff getting stuck and causing infection.

Any truth to that?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by todko

Circular Quay is obviously the best horse in the race. .

We dont know if he is the best horse, just the most accomplished so far.

[todko]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

During the winter meet I had heard through the grapevine that over 20 horses had serious hoof problems due to the stuff getting stuck and causing infection.

Any truth to that?

I hadn't heard that at all. If that was the case then the groom wasn't doing his or her job. I heard some about soft tissue injuries -- Polyway came back and said that it due to trainers bringing "unfit" horses in.

If you stand at the rail and watch the horses come back you can see horses that obviously do not like to breathe the poly. They snort excessively -- almost like they inhaled an allergen or irritant. Sure, you see that to a limited extent on the dirt also.

It smells hugely bad. I don't know if that makes certain horses uncomfortable.

I'll be at Keeneland tomorrow. It will be interesting to check that out.

If I can stay away from the hottie co-eds and the beer stand .

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

We dont know if he is the best horse, just the most accomplished so far.

Well said Cannon Shell. We won't know who's the best until the first Saturday in May when you think about it. The horses change so fast at this age.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

During the winter meet I had heard through the grapevine that over 20 horses had serious hoof problems due to the stuff getting stuck and causing infection.

Any truth to that?

May cause Epm, herpes, Potomac horse fever too!

Originally Posted by todko

I hadn't heard that at all. If that was the case then the groom wasn't doing his or her job. I heard some about soft tissue injuries -- Polyway came back and said that it due to trainers bringing "unfit" horses in.

If you stand at the rail and watch the horses come back you can see horses that obviously do not like to breathe the poly. They snort excessively -- almost like they inhaled an allergen or irritant. Sure, you see that to a limited extent on the dirt also.

It smells hugely bad. I don't know if that makes certain horses uncomfortable.

I'll be at Keeneland tomorrow. It will be interesting to check that out.

If I can stay away from the hottie co-eds and the beer stand .

Hey when you go to Keeneland the last thing on your mind should be the races. That's why you cap it and bet 'em before you get to the track.

I'll be there Wednesday. Can't wait.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I hate it, because it's rediculous to me, to look at a horse on paper and based on breeding he will do this or do that. There's no telling what he'll do and don't tell me that he will do such and such, because of who he's bred out of. I don't care if a horse is by Car Dealer or Froggywentacourt'n(2 Ohio Breds) if they are a good horse, they are good horse. When we get these posts of check out this hip or that hip in a sale, I want to vomit. Granted, not everyone wants to read what I have to say, I know that, but these people really no nothing other than some boring inbreeding or something like that. I got news for them, every AP Indy is not Bernardini...Give me a hard trying, fast, poorly bred horse any day of the week...

I respect your opinion, but my feeling and actual experience is that I have won more than my share of maiden races on the turf because others are too lazy to do the work that is required to learn more about turf sires. All the better for me that people continue that trend, as it will continue to insure better prices for me in the end.

[Cannon Shell]

Personally I think that if you avoid wagering on Polytrack you are making a big mistake. One reason is that there are a lot of unknowns about the surface. Which means that the other players have no advantage on you. If you watch the races closely you may be able to identify trends before the betting public and sharp players do. For instance there was a day at Turfway last week where the track was favoring speed very strongly. The track was also playing much faster in spirnts versus routes the same day. That is powerful info because very few people are aware of the trend. Also traditional sheet numbers are not as accurate on polytrack because there are days where the outside paths are much superior to the rail, therefore giving better numbers to the winners than they should get based upon the old methodology.
The richest people in this world capitalize on chaos and being ahead of the curve. That opportunity clearly presents itself here. Maybe you should temper your bets where you are wagering a smaller % than you usually would, but to put your head in the sand and say that you wont wager on it, and maybe miss some tremendous opportunities, seems a little narrowminded.

BTW- Regarding With a City, the connections of that horse have produced some stunning upsets in the past in big races with horses that never had shown that kind of form and never did again. Also the field was basically an allowance race from which very little has ever emerged out of.

I already have picked against Circular Quay in this race. I think he has ability but I think the horses in this race have developed into very good 2 year olds. I think the talent in this field and the two turns will get Quay beat. The surface might play a little into the equation because it is indeed a different surface. I don't think the change in surface will be the culminating factor as to why Quay got beat.

Now, the question to you is this....will you admit that any horse can run over PolyTrack as long as Quay wins. Will you finally shut-up about the surface. heck if Quay can win on dirt and PolyTrack then surface should't matter. So if you want to call out the Poly supporters pre-race then you should be called out as well.

[zippyneedsawin]

I'm a huge fan of CQ, but I wouldn't dare touch him this weekend. I have no idea how he'll take to the Polytrack. I'm hoping he stays wide and runs evenly to finish 3rd or 4th. That way maybe his odds are a little better when he runs back on the real stuff in the BC Juvy!

[tiznowthegreat]

I just wish that there was more of a happy medium. There is no doubt that often very good or great dirt horses don't take to it at all and as the surface spreads to the tracks through the country, this will completely change the sport as well bred horses will struggle to find a surface to suceed on. It is not fair for horses like CQ and other great dirt horses not to have a chance on this foreign surface. HOwever, it does do wonders for the soundness of horses. Far fewer breakdowns and a horse can run more often with less strain. So it's hard to decide which is more important , many believe that the safety of horses is but to what extent - that it ruins the game or completely changes it? I'm not complaining right now though as I've had the biggest scores of my life by far betting against these good dirt horses that top trainers ship in for stakes, and sticking with the horses who train or have run on it already (With a City by far the biggest score of my life). Last week had tons of success in the stakes races with Ball Four and UD Ghetto.

I don't see how PolyTrack is going to change the game at all or the breeding. Horses will adapt and so will breeding. The only thing that will change is the names of the horses. People will say--well we will never get to see how good a horse could be because he never ran on dirt. Well the same could be said by saying--well we never know how good a horse could be because he couldnt run on Poly. Not sure if Poly is here to stay or not, but it won't ruin the the sport at all.

[TitanSooner]

Man.. this topic is like spoiled milk.. you take a sniff, you know it's bad, but you still have to take a drink.

[repent]

Polytrack is going to kill us all at some point.

I have NO idea why any trainer with any intention of running his horse in a Breeders Cup race would prep him on a track made of rubber and glue.



Repent

[KonaNative]

I love Poly...There I said it!
CQ should and will win this race.. I don't care if it is run on gravel.
He is bred for the distance..Has the best Trainer and Jockey combo in the field. He won his last with little effort and should have plenty left for a strong finish.
I'm going to single him and make combo's with the 2-3-5