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#41
10-16-2006, 01:19 AM
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The reality of the situation is that it really doesn't matter which particular Pletcher horse is running.For the most part,these horses don't get tired like other horses do(always a helpful advantage to have.)
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#42
10-16-2006, 01:36 AM
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Betting Pletcher chalk is hardly stealing in my opinion. Congrats on the pick though and best of luck with that in the BC juvey. I am of the opinion that Scat Daddy isnt as good as CQ. I wasnt terribly impressed with the win saturday. Set up was perfect and it wasnt like his run was overpowering. Nobiz ran a bizarre race but the talent is certainly there. From a "talent" standpoint, I am of the opinion that he possesses more than Scat daddy and will be a better horse in the long run. If i get a good price on him in the juvey, i will take it.
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#43
10-16-2006, 06:55 AM
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C-Racing has been liking Scat D and singing his praises since way back. He's as unlikely as the days long to be redboarding on this one.
Guy likes a 2 yo and it keeps running well. Guy cashes a decent price on the horse and is pleased and thinks his horse will go on. I think it's admirable to hook on to a 2 yo early, stick with him and be a fan of the sport for a few months. It's not always all about the wagering and who was the better horse and who had the better trip, etc... I doubt the 5/2 changed anyone's life a ton.
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#44
10-16-2006, 08:04 AM
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To be successful bettors, we have to think in terms of the longrun. If we get too worked up over the outcome of every bet, we are not going to have a successful longterm approach. For me, a 21-1 shot finishing a close 3rd would be as good or better a confirmation of my capping skill than a 5-2 shot winning narrowly. What I objected to in CR's post was the idea that 5-2 was a huge overlay. When 2 horses finish within a length of your horse, there's no evidence that 5-2 was a gift. --Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#45
10-16-2006, 10:00 AM
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One thing I have learmed In my short 65 years, is dont get too excited about picking a 5/2 winner and dont get down on you capping with a 20/1 "only hits the board". I was in the very dumb catagory. My choice was Im a Numbers Man. I felt if this horse was within 3-4 lengths comming out of the turn he would blow by them.What a mistake it was interpreting his last win with a growing margin as a great finish and not able to see that it was the compitition a folding. With my experience I will not beat myself up but picking a 5/2 winner will not make me a wizard.
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#46
10-16-2006, 10:06 AM
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__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#47
10-16-2006, 04:26 PM
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#48
10-16-2006, 04:28 PM
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I think being able to isolate any horse (as the winner of a race) is the important thing.
1)Hardest thing to do, is to overcome the infatuation with getting a big price on the win end.This is especially true in these stakes races that Pletcher is entered in.It is also especially true on the West Coast with many of the spots Mullins(and many times O'neil) has his horses in.You're at a huge disadvantage when you try to beat these people on the win end.You need to just admit that some people's horses aren't gunna get tired (no matter the trip, or your cap strategies.) Hard to beat horses when you run up alongside them,and they then proceed to run to the wire as if the race just started.You can't compete with the level of energy that some trainers are able to fill their horses with(as a wagerer, it really is not incredibly important to know how they get that energy into a horse,but it is important to avoid a fight you can't win.) 2)The 2nd hardest thing to do is to stop betting short or moderately -priced horses to win.I think this is the #1 thing people do wrong when they gamble on horses(bet heavy to win on horses of moderate or low price.)In a game where the combatants often get bad trips,bleed(or palate displaced )or disqualified,the last thing you want to do is wager a lot of money that one particular horse will accomplish something you want done. The natural human tendency is to bet a lot of money that one horse can do what you want it to do.To a lesser degree,I did this for quite a few years.I saw friends betting $300-$500 to win/place on one of the top 3 or 4 favorites in a race.Win betting is attractive to people because it does give you the best chance to cash a ticket(avoid losing.)The thing people are often in denial about is that you must not lose,or you will be very far in the hole(because it takes a large amount to make a large amount.)Because it takes so much cash to make money win betting( on low or moderately priced horses,)what do people do when they lose by win betting low priced horses? They need to then start making that money back.They have less money to now do that with.They don't look at races objectively(they start trying to hunt down price horses.)These horses I spoke of above(trained by the Pletchers,and Mullins of the world) often have to have something go very wrong for them to fail to win.So,your probably going to have win bets on horses that are running for 2nd or 3rd money.So,I actually think win betting is the crack cocaine of the horse wagering options.A lot of short burst pleasure that involves a high degree of risk of getting deep in the hole.What seems by most to be the most conservative bet in racing,is actually the bet that gets many people in deep financial holes.Again,the reason for that, is you're usually going to be betting quite a bit of money(if you want to make a decent amount,)and if you fail a few times,you'll be behind very quickly. Of course,the other alternative is to bet a smaller amount on price horses.The problem with this is that these supertrainers often have their foot on your neck,and you have no shot at bringing in a price(but regardless you wildly fish.)So,my suggestion is to avoid betting one horse to do something.Bet on atleast 2 things to happen.This requires less money,and allows you to be more objective in deciding who is going to win a race.Don't get caught up in "having to make money" on a 5/2 shot.Use it in the 1 hole of some less cash-demanding wager.I say all this.. if you don't have 1st hand information from a barn.Obviously that would make win betting on low priced horses a little better option.I would still avoid win betting low priced horses with large sums of money (because of the disqualifications,bleeding,displaced palates,bad trips etc.)
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#49
10-16-2006, 04:28 PM
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#50
10-16-2006, 04:31 PM
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#51
10-16-2006, 04:43 PM
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#52
10-16-2006, 04:46 PM
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Any race that helps the price on CQ is great with me!!!!!!
CQ smoked Scat and Pegasus in the Hopeful and off one race over the tires is now being said by some to be a "closing sprinter". Thats fine with me!!! Can't wait to see this closing sprinter at CD on Cup Day as he blows by the field.
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#53
10-16-2006, 04:50 PM
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However, Scat Daddy was a graded stakes winner and the class of the field with excuses in his last two efforts and yet a maiden winner was favored over him.....now that is value IMO....
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#54
10-16-2006, 04:51 PM
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#55
10-16-2006, 04:53 PM
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#56
10-16-2006, 05:00 PM
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Early Odds Projections: Circular Quay --- 9/5 - 2/1 Scat Daddy --- 5/2 - 7/2 Great Hunter --- 3/1 - 4-1
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#57
10-16-2006, 06:45 PM
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The 2nd problem with the way you are thinking (IMO!) is that you are thinking of these horses like machines. You are thinking that a horse running the same path is going to run the same time under all conditions. In this particular case, you are thinking that if you give Pegasus the same nice trip time after time, he will run it exactly the same way. You are not considering variables that we can never measure, that are enough to produce a 1-length difference more often than not. (I'm not talking about different times as a result of more experience; I'm talking about the inherent uncertainty of the information we are dealing with.) A related concept is that it was entirely possible that Scat Daddy and NoBiz could have both run into just a little more trouble than they did. It wouldn't have taken much to make Pegasus the winner. So, even if you were correct in suggesting that Pegasus could not have run a better time, there are many scenarios by which Pegasus could have won that race. --Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#58
10-16-2006, 06:46 PM
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Well, Oracle, this race at Keeneland is yet another example of the same jockey getting a horse stuck down on the rail,and then he has to wait for horses to go by him before he can get out(Espinoza then makes him go wider than Great Hunter on the turn.)Regardless of whether CQ liked this track,I think you don't want a post near the rail for the B.C. Juvenile.Jock seems unable to avoid getting speed-lacking chalk locked in on the rail down the backstretch. A better ride,a different surface,and a little hotter pace,should give C.Q. a big shot.I wouldn't call him a closing sprinter (yet,) but I do think he would like a little more heat to chase than he got in this Keeneland race.Scat Daddy appears to be a very versatile and game horse.To me,J.V. got this horse too close(on the backstretch in the Hopeful)to a pace that was way too fast for 7f.He realized it,and tried to get away from it,but it seemed the damage was done.The only knock I have on Scat is that he hasn't gone 2 turns yet.I think he will do it just fine,but some 2 year olds seem to be struggling with making that 1st turn.This horse seems pretty adaptable though.I think he is the gamest of the bunch.C.Q. gets his favorite track,and (with a fairly good pace) will probably have a slight talent edge.So,you have versatility,and gameness versus a horse with talent,but no speed.If I was making a huge place bet,it would be on Scat.I wouldn't single either one in multirace betting.
Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 10-16-2006 at 06:50 PM.
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#59
10-16-2006, 06:49 PM
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