Any Derby Pool 1 thoughts?

Does anyone have any horses they like in pool 1 that might be worth a small wager.

Derby Pool 1
# Name M/L Odds
1 Adore the Gold 20-1
2 Any Given Saturday 20-1
3 Belgravia 20-1
4 Buffalo Man 30-1
5 Circular Quay 15-1
6 Day Pass 15-1
7 Dreaming of Anna (f) 15-1
8 Drums of Thunder 30-1
9 EZ Warrior 15-1
10 Exhale 20-1
11 Forefathers 30-1
12 Great Hunter 30-1
13 Hard Spun 20-1
14 Lawrence the Roman 30-1
15 Liquidity 20-1
16 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1
17 Notional 15-1
18 Out of Gwedda 30-1
19 Ravel 15-1
20 Scat Daddy 30-1
21 Stormello 20-1
22 Street Sense 12-1
23 Zanjero 30-1
24 All Other 3 YO's 7-2



Oaks Pool 1
# Name M/L Odds
1 Appealing Zophie 30-1
2 Baroness Thatcher 15-1
3 Bel Air Beauty 30-1
4 Boca Grande 12-1
5 Cash Included 20-1
6 Catch The Thrill 50-1
7 Cotton Blossom 20-1
8 Devil House 30-1
9 Dreaming of Anna 4-1
10 Enchanting Star 50-1
11 Five Star Daydream 30-1
12 Get Ready Bertie 20-1
13 Jump On In 12-1
14 Meditations 20-1
15 Mistical Plan 20-1
16 Octave 12-1
17 Quick Little Miss 30-1
18 Rags to Riches 20-1
19 Romance is Diane 20-1
20 Runway Rosie 30-1
21 Successful Outlook 20-1
22 Sutra 50-1
23 Untouched Talent 50-1
24 All Other 3 YO Fillies 3-1

[hockey2315]

I'm going to play $30 on Any Given Saturday, $10 on Adore the Gold, $5 on Forefathers, and $5 on Drums of Thunder. . .

I was going to play Cotton Blossom but so far she's gotten bet down way too far to bet. . .

I wouldn't go too crazy with futures. . . especially with the lower priced horses. . . You can always wrap them up in exotics on Derby Day. . .

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I was going to play Cotton Blossom but so far she's gotten bet down way too far to bet. . .

I love her as well (Jim Squires bred her.) As for my derby horse, I'm sticking with Liquidity, but I doubt I'll make a futures bet on him because his odds (if he enters the gate) will probably be higher than that on derby day.

[brianwspencer]

Right now (granted we're super early in the betting), Liquidity looks like an absolute steal. I don't like the horse very much (not in my top 5-10), but with odds vs. talent, his odds are way out of whack...we'll see how the rest of the weekend goes before deciding.

Drums of Thunder is an interesting one in there too at lofty odds.

Maybe even Forefathers if he stays near 70-1.

[randallscott35]

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

call me if you change your mind...i'll let you place some bets for me can't do it from here.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

At 7/2 or better, you should bet the field...I would if I felt like driving down to place it. I don't.

Totally agree. Injuries, etc... with 26 so horses.

[declansharbor]

Whatever you do, dont take a horse that you will be able to get the same odds on come the first saturday in may..The only horse that I'll be laying moulah on is Hard Spun..If he gets to the derby, he would have done well in ARK and will be alot of peoples road dog because of the Smarty Jones similarity. If and its a big IF, he makes it to the gate, he will not be 20-1..Just my opinion...Please critique it, I will not leave the board like PGIVN85, although we're close to the same age, i do not run away at the first sign of disagreement..

[estreetposse]

Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.

There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more.

I'll wait until derby day if this is the case


-bt-

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Personally, i think the winner is coming from the horse that has some sort of odds next to their name. I don't think the field is a strong bet, especially at 7-2.

There is basically NO value in ANY of these horse. For this being the first future pool of the year and not 1 horse is listed at over 50-1 is confussing to me. Dreaming of Anna at 15-1.... ugh ok. Who ever made these odds obsiously thinks that all the horses have a real shot of winning the KY Derby, and i think thats far from the case. I also think its funny how 1 horse wins a prep race and their odds are cut in half if not more.

I'll wait until derby day if this is the case


-bt-

Generally, I would tend to agree with you, but the field is due IMO....Also, with 20 individual betting interests, unless you can get 40-1 or better on a horse I wouldn't endorse a bet in this, with this much time to the race.
In Feb of last year, I got SNS at 100-1, AP Warr at 120-1, and Flashy Bull at 100-1....Obviously I was thrilled to get the post time favorite at 100-1 but it means nothing if they aren't draped in roses after the race.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Whatever you do, dont take a horse that you will be able to get the same odds on come the first saturday in may..The only horse that I'll be laying moulah on is Hard Spun..If he gets to the derby, he would have done well in ARK and will be alot of peoples road dog because of the Smarty Jones similarity. If and its a big IF, he makes it to the gate, he will not be 20-1..Just my opinion...Please critique it, I will not leave the board like PGIVN85, although we're close to the same age, i do not run away at the first sign of disagreement..

Hard Spun has been bet down to 9-1 as of right now. . . I think you'll get better odds on him in May. . .

live odds: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/future-wager/realtime

Analysis and "post positions": http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/co...1-horse-horse-

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Hard Spun has been bet down to 9-1 as of right now. . . I think you'll get better odds on him in May. . .

live odds: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/future-wager/realtime

Analysis and "post positions": http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/co...1-horse-horse-

In that case, save ur money...Thx hockey for the updated odds...

[cakes44]

Anybody have the updated pool 1 odds after yesterday? I can't find them anywhere for some reason. Thanks.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Anybody have the updated pool 1 odds after yesterday? I can't find them anywhere for some reason. Thanks.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/future-wager/realtime

[Cannon Shell]

Its too bad they could not come up with a system where you could buy and sell "shares" in horses at market value. You could buy into a horse at the price quoted and the price rises and falls based upon the shares sold. Would be a much better system and probably attract much more money than this one.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Its too bad they could not come up with a system where you could buy and sell "shares" in horses at market value. You could buy into a horse at the price quoted and the price rises and falls based upon the shares sold. Would be a much better system and probably attract much more money than this one.

Yeah, I've thought about how cool that could be too. Guess which horse is going to throw up a big win next out and suddenly become the new hot horse so you can unload him for a profit. I think it is a lot easier to do that now than to try and find a Derby winner.

[2Hot4TV]

Ravel has a nice long stride and looks to have a bright future with added distance. He's my early pick, but I always wait to wager till post parade.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Yeah, I've thought about how cool that could be too. Guess which horse is going to throw up a big win next out and suddenly become the new hot horse so you can unload him for a profit. I think it is a lot easier to do that now than to try and find a Derby winner.

Well, you CAN do that at places like EhorseX and Tradesports. I don't think they have futures for the Derby up yet, but they have put them up pretty early in the past. And I know Tradesports is responsive to email requests, if someone is eager to get going.

Each of those sites functions as a market in which shares in Derby contenders are bought and sold.

Of course, activity and interest are pretty limited until the Derby gets closer. Also, if you want to "buy" a share, it's risky to leave the offer open. If the horse gets injured, someone is going to rush to sell you the share you want.

--Dunbar