2013-2014 NBA Season

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Please name one guy who anyone has remotely heard of that thought Jackson was possibly a 12-14 million dollar a year player? He was a 23% 3 point shooter coming into this year and he is 6'3". This was never the 2nd coming of Harden and I don't know anyone and never read anywhere that thought that.

As for this part, you don't find anyone talking specific numbers. I've seen a few articles mentioning him as a potential all-star (don't agree), and that the Thunder will have to be creative to keep him. If you are right and he would only be offered around 8 per season, then him leaving was never a real concern. OKC can and will do that in a heartbeat. But you can find tons of articles around that indicate he was playing himself out of his role here, meaning OKC wouldn't be able to pay him. That means 8 per year was not the number most were projecting, or even close to that. About the closest I've seen to mentioning actual numbers is that he "isn't a max guy", which I don't think anybody ever thought. The thing is, it only takes one team to agree he is a potential all star and he'll get overpaid.

Nobody ever said he was Harden, but there are several articles out there comparing their production with OKC, and the numbers are close. It wasn't the craziest thing in the world to think Jackson's numbers would rise given extra minutes. He averaged 14.2 PPG in December and 3.6 assists in 26.5 minutes. In January, his minutes went to 31.5, but his PPG only went up 0.9, and his assists 0.6. It wasn't the craziest thing to think he would play 35 minutes a game, and at the same rate he would have averaged 19.5 and 4.8. I don't really think his career 3P% is relevant as a young player. This year is what he will be judged on in that area, and he is average and improving.

His erratic defense has kept his minutes down, and he hasn't played as well against starters. But again, it was possible, and had he done that his price tag would have gone up. It isn't like no bench player has ever stepped into a starting role and increased production. It isn't like he didn't have some big games this year in the 4Q against other teams starters, including a couple monster games against the Spurs.

If Westbrook never missed time, and Jackson stayed in the same role, it is likely that Jackson would have priced himself out of OKC. Somebody would have offered him too much money based on his play in that role, thinking he could do even more as a starter. Now, that is pretty clearly unlikely. That is what I meant by my "saved OKC money" comment.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

For whatever it's worth, there are currently eight teams playing .600 or better. Here are the records against each other:

Portland 8-3 +2.5ppg
OKC 8-4 +7.3
Indiana 6-3 +5.1
Miami 3-2 -1.2
Houston 6-6 -3.5
LA 5-7 +0.5
SA 3-8 -5.7
GS 3-9 -4.7

Wonder how many of the SA games they sat one or more of their better players

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

As for this part, you don't find anyone talking specific numbers. I've seen a few articles mentioning him as a potential all-star (don't agree), and that the Thunder will have to be creative to keep him. If you are right and he would only be offered around 8 per season, then him leaving was never a real concern. OKC can and will do that in a heartbeat. But you can find tons of articles around that indicate he was playing himself out of his role here, meaning OKC wouldn't be able to pay him. That means 8 per year was not the number most were projecting, or even close to that. About the closest I've seen to mentioning actual numbers is that he "isn't a max guy", which I don't think anybody ever thought. The thing is, it only takes one team to agree he is a potential all star and he'll get overpaid.

Nobody ever said he was Harden, but there are several articles out there comparing their production with OKC, and the numbers are close. It wasn't the craziest thing in the world to think Jackson's numbers would rise given extra minutes. He averaged 14.2 PPG in December and 3.6 assists in 26.5 minutes. In January, his minutes went to 31.5, but his PPG only went up 0.9, and his assists 0.6. It wasn't the craziest thing to think he would play 35 minutes a game, and at the same rate he would have averaged 19.5 and 4.8. I don't really think his career 3P% is relevant as a young player. This year is what he will be judged on in that area, and he is average and improving.

His erratic defense has kept his minutes down, and he hasn't played as well against starters. But again, it was possible, and had he done that his price tag would have gone up. It isn't like no bench player has ever stepped into a starting role and increased production. It isn't like he didn't have some big games this year in the 4Q against other teams starters, including a couple monster games against the Spurs.

If Westbrook never missed time, and Jackson stayed in the same role, it is likely that Jackson would have priced himself out of OKC. Somebody would have offered him too much money based on his play in that role, thinking he could do even more as a starter. Now, that is pretty clearly unlikely. That is what I meant by my "saved OKC money" comment.

I have a hard time believing that they will commit 8 or more million to a non starting player. IMO Jackson is not a great fit as a starter on this team because he is not really a PG. Anchoring the 2nd team he is ball dominant and looking to be the 1st option which he obviously cant do while starting. That doesn't mean he isn't an effective player because his numbers are still good, however unlike Westbrook who is every bit in charge of the offense as Durant when playing together Jackson cant do that.

I don't think that anything that has happened to Westbrook has much effect on Jacksons value. I do not believe that unless he starts shooting 40% from 3 point range will he ever get above that 8 million a year ceiling. The question is he going to be happy coming off the bench for a top team or want to start for a potentially lessor team. Harden wouldn't. Problem OKC has is that they keep drafting good players and eventually they are going to have to pay them. It isn't really a "problem" per se but the Lakers, Heat, Knicks, Clippers, etc are willing to go over cap to do so and OKC won't. Despite all the changes and tweaks to the cap the big market teams still have a big advantage that a few have traded in by hiring Billy King or letting the wrong family member run the team like Jim Buss (and I'm sure if Dolan has a sister she could do better than him too)

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I saw that and thought who or what do they possibly have that would interest Detroit? They already traded their 1st rd pick this year, cant trade next years and don't really seem to have any players or combination of players that could make that deal happen. I suppose maybe they can get a third team involved?

I have no idea if they could do it or not but Otto Porter to Phoenix, Phoenix sends Channing Frye and the 1st rounder they got in the Gortat trade to Detroit, Det sends Monroe to Wash?

Somebody will probably give him something close to a max contract next year, if Detroit doesn't plan on matching it...(they didn't sign him to an extension this year when they had a chance)...maybe they will just take a player like Otto Porter or throw in Jerebko for Ariza and his expiring contract. Obviously having Josh Smith, Drummond and Monroe playing together isn't working...and Monroe looks to be the odd man out.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

San Antonio is a horrible match up for OKC? What exactly points to that? Is it OKC winning 8 of the last 10 head to head that makes you think that, including 2-0 this year with a thrashing in SA?

I can only guess that with the stat you gave, plus that the Rockets are 2-0 in SA this year that he's saying the Spurs struggle with those teams. They have beaten Golden State twice, including one where none of the big three played in Oakland.

The Rockets game last night was terrific and helped them exorcise some demons from last week's 2nd half debacle vs. OKC. I have felt all along that the Rockets are a bad matchup for Portland, as their lack of defensive intensity sets up a team loaded with outside shooters with tons of open shots. Aldridge is tremendous, but he has now been just a bit below his best twice when matched up with Dwight Howard. I'd love to see Houston-Portland at some point in the playoffs.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Problem OKC has is that they keep drafting good players and eventually they are going to have to pay them. It isn't really a "problem" per se but the Lakers, Heat, Knicks, Clippers, etc are willing to go over cap to do so and OKC won't. Despite all the changes and tweaks to the cap the big market teams still have a big advantage that a few have traded in by hiring Billy King or letting the wrong family member run the team like Jim Buss (and I'm sure if Dolan has a sister she could do better than him too)

The part about OKC simply isn't true. They are willing to go over the cap, they just aren't going to do it carelessly. I assume you mean the luxury tax threshold, not the cap. I say this because they already were willing to do it to keep Harden. The offer they made would have had them over the number immediately.

They are being careful now not to go over it this year because of the repeater penalties. They know they will go over soon. There really isn't any way to avoid it with the long terms deals of Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I can only guess that with the stat you gave, plus that the Rockets are 2-0 in SA this year that he's saying the Spurs struggle with those teams. They have beaten Golden State twice, including one where none of the big three played in Oakland.

The Rockets game last night was terrific and helped them exorcise some demons from last week's 2nd half debacle vs. OKC. I have felt all along that the Rockets are a bad matchup for Portland, as their lack of defensive intensity sets up a team loaded with outside shooters with tons of open shots. Aldridge is tremendous, but he has now been just a bit below his best twice when matched up with Dwight Howard. I'd love to see Houston-Portland at some point in the playoffs.

Yeah, that is the confusing part, they kind of own Golden State, but certainly not the other two.

The game was fun last night. I hope it wore down Portland a little for tonight. In the late game, Golden State was disappointing.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Somebody will probably give him something close to a max contract next year, if Detroit doesn't plan on matching it...(they didn't sign him to an extension this year when they had a chance)...maybe they will just take a player like Otto Porter or throw in Jerebko for Ariza and his expiring contract. Obviously having Josh Smith, Drummond and Monroe playing together isn't working...and Monroe looks to be the odd man out.

Yeah I'm sure they dont want him to just walk but they could also do a sign and trade after the season to someone else who might be able to give them more than Porter who seems like a giant question mark right now.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I can only guess that with the stat you gave, plus that the Rockets are 2-0 in SA this year that he's saying the Spurs struggle with those teams. They have beaten Golden State twice, including one where none of the big three played in Oakland.

The Rockets game last night was terrific and helped them exorcise some demons from last week's 2nd half debacle vs. OKC. I have felt all along that the Rockets are a bad matchup for Portland, as their lack of defensive intensity sets up a team loaded with outside shooters with tons of open shots. Aldridge is tremendous, but he has now been just a bit below his best twice when matched up with Dwight Howard. I'd love to see Houston-Portland at some point in the playoffs.

Beverly being back helps Houston a lot. Allows Lin to come off bench and gives them solid perimeter defender in backcourt that neither Harden or Lin or Aaron brooks is.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The part about OKC simply isn't true. They are willing to go over the cap, they just aren't going to do it carelessly. I assume you mean the luxury tax threshold, not the cap. I say this because they already were willing to do it to keep Harden. The offer they made would have had them over the number immediately.

They are being careful now not to go over it this year because of the repeater penalties. They know they will go over soon. There really isn't any way to avoid it with the long terms deals of Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka.

Right. Going over the cap slightly or once isnt a big deal if you are a contender. But you have other teams that are willing to just pay no mind to the tax, even the repeater tax which small market teams just cant afford to do. The Nets and Knicks are so far over its a joke. Now they are over because they both have a lot of older guys who make far more money than their current skills say they should which shows in their records. But if they actually hired good GM's and let them do their job it would be unfair for them to just keep signing and keeping guys and paying the tax AND winning. No one complains a lot now because the 2 highest payroll teams stink.

[JJP]

Should be a good game tonight in OK-C. 5th game in 7 nights for Portland, not to mention the second of a back to back.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Beverly being back helps Houston a lot. Allows Lin to come off bench and gives them solid perimeter defender in backcourt that neither Harden or Lin or Aaron brooks is.

Absolutely. Beverley was a real spark last night and made good plays when Portland cut it to single digits. He is a solid defender and a good 3 point shooter. He's a tremendous find by Daryl Morey, and he makes about 10% of the man who backs him up.

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by JJP

Should be a good game tonight in OK-C. 5th game in 7 nights for Portland, not to mention the second of a back to back.

And a questionable Batum...

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Right. Going over the cap slightly or once isnt a big deal if you are a contender. But you have other teams that are willing to just pay no mind to the tax, even the repeater tax which small market teams just cant afford to do. The Nets and Knicks are so far over its a joke. Now they are over because they both have a lot of older guys who make far more money than their current skills say they should which shows in their records. But if they actually hired good GM's and let them do their job it would be unfair for them to just keep signing and keeping guys and paying the tax AND winning. No one complains a lot now because the 2 highest payroll teams stink.

We'll see how it plays out when the penalties get severe. Right now, it hasn't really kicked in. It will in the next couple years, and we'll see how long the big market teams continue to pay the tax. I don't think they will be as willing as in the past.

Love or hate Mark Cuban, he is a smart guy and a very rich guy, and he wants no parts of the penalties.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

And a questionable Batum...

I got off my butt so I have time to go tonight. Looking forward to it.

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I got off my butt so I have time to go tonight. Looking forward to it.

Batum looks like he'll give it a try...hopefully they play a little bit on the defensive end tonight. I'm sure the Thunder don't forget letting that one slip away three weeks ago. I don't see Durant being held to one point in the 4th quarter tonight.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

San Antonio is a horrible match up for OKC? What exactly points to that? Is it OKC winning 8 of the last 10 head to head that makes you think that, including 2-0 this year with a thrashing in SA?

You have it backwards or I said it backwards. I feel like those teams are all better in a 7 game series then the Spurs. The matchup is wrong for the Spurs is the point I was trying to make. Young, athletic teams. Other then Lebron, Miami is not athletic. Spurs matched up well last year with Miami.

[RockHardTen1985]

Hard to believe Portland can even be competitive tonight with the hard stretch of games they have had.
OKC opens at 3, up to 6.5 and 7 at some places.

[RockHardTen1985]

Durant is playing crazy good basketball right now.

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by Duvalier

Portland and Phoenix with the two easiest schedules up to this point of the season in the Western Conference. Things get a lot tougher from here on out. For Portland they go on a 4 game in 5 nights road trip with 2 back to backs, Spurs and Mavericks then Rockets and Thunder to start with...coming out of that 2-2 would be huge.

Good 4 game road trip for the Blazers. Spurs and Thunder are the top two teams in the West. Durant is pretty much unstoppable, it's really too bad Westbrook had to get hurt on that odd play in last year's playoffs.