Zayat is Leaving; Baffert hates it

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by GBBob

No where special....a program from Arlington last Thursday..Page 17

aww, that's what I thought.
I was hoping to get the same info for other tracks, to compare.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

aww, that's what I thought.
I was hoping to get the same info for other tracks, to compare.

I'd also like to compare it to AP's dirt numbers same time last year. I'm sure they differ, but maybe not as much as other track's dirt to poly conversions, based on what I've been reading about Delmar and saw at Keeneland

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by Riot

.

Does anybody have figures on Kee, Turf, Arlington, or even first days of Del Mar, regarding what percentage of horses have won from front, stalking, closing? I've seen some published, can't recall where.

Riot,after a quick look at the BRIS summary reports for DMR through July 30, races at 5.5,6.0, and 6.5 furlongs show 65%-70% of the winners being designated as running style E or EP. The two turn races show almost the opposite trend, with P and S horses winning the majority of the races.These numbers for poly only, no turf.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

aww, that's what I thought.
I was hoping to get the same info for other tracks, to compare.

maybe you can find it somewhere on the racing web sites...

[gamblin4ever]

Since Zayat and Baffert likes speed horses so much, maybe they should move to Charles Town and Mountaineer..

[TitanSooner]

or Monmouth

If you cant adjust to change in today's world, get out. I understand the frustration, but if handle is up... something is working. And I just cant believe the stuff plays totally randomly.

We have a bunch of horses bred for speed and they cost money. That would make me mad if I had invested and spent time in selecting. ANd of course they lost to a so called crappy horse with endurance. Well maybe that horse is not crappy anymore.
We have horses whose worth in the shed might change drastically if more tracks go to artificial. That would make me mad as a breeder.

We have the TC races on dirt, and major tracks in NY and other places still doing dirt... that might get me upset as a handicapper of multiple tracks whose circuits overlap with artificial. Or a long time handicapper whose favorite track just changed surfaces. Make the necessary adjustments. If it is really a crapshoot, stop betting.

But what are you going to do, just cry about it, or adjust. Determining if this is a temporary trend, or a long term thing that will spread to all major tracks including eventually TC races and the BC, is very interesting for the future.

Embrace the change and the uncertanties, or fight the changes to the death because you know they will ruin your all your notions, planning, your sport, your life. What happened to the poor guys that invented Beta tapes... Quit and cry, or keep pace with change.
People on here are using the internet. There are still people who wont get on it, hate it.

[Danzig]

so is it just the type of poly track that causes this? monmouth favors speed, but monmouth is dirt...

is speed really dying at del mar, or just zayats speed horses? what are the #'s for del mar (if anyone can look in their program, if they list %'s like arlington does?). is cushion biased at all? does it depend on sun, cloudy? rain, dry?
perception is one thing, reality another. is it a reality that only closers win? if so, where do speedsters go? or do they just rest til hollywood? but is hollywood playing fair?

and what about santa anita, they're cushion right?


sires are known for being milers, turfers, etc--are there any known sires of early speedsters? if so, what does it mean for them, and their owners?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

aww, that's what I thought.
I was hoping to get the same info for other tracks, to compare.

Try this link

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...cle.cgi?id=318

in the left section of that page, go to the "At A Glance" tab and pick your track. Hope this is what you were looking for....

[lemoncrush]

I was at Del Mar last week, and couldn't believe what that crap looks like up close. It reminded me of the inside of a used vacuum bag.

Anyway, part of the problem when I was there was the quality of racing (Saturday's card was full of low-level claiming races..I could have stayed in MN and watched those at Canterbury). But from what I saw, if you didn't get out of the gate well you were toast. Deep closers had no chance. It was all stalkers and horses coming from just off the pace.

Del Mar is gorgeous, but the racing was mediocre while I was there. The polytrack certainly didn't help.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Polytrack cannot erase one of Del Mar's chronic problems: the racing is essentially the same as what we see thoughout the California racing season. California is on an island, so to speak, meaning that horses aren't shipped there from other parts of the country like at Saratoga. Horses from Kentucky and the Mid-Atlantic region provide the meeting with flavor. Minus a few Pletcher and Dutrow horses shipped out west after the Cushion Track was installed, California's fare hardly changes.

yet somehow the polytrack gets blamed for this?
its the same Del Mar cards as any year. the daily fare is just sorta average for the reasons you mentioned.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Try this link

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...cle.cgi?id=318

in the left section of that page, go to the "At A Glance" tab and pick your track. Hope this is what you were looking for....

yes it's exactly what I was looking for, thanks

[ArlJim78]

through 8/4

Saratoga dirt;
fav win%, fav itm%, ave win payout, %wire sprints, %wire routes
26%, 61%, $6.38, 17%, 25%

DelMar poly;
33%, 66%, $6.39, 30%, 5%


So far we've heard that at Del Mar because of the polytrack it's totally random, you can't make any sense of the outcomes. Like its some topsy turvy world where you can't apply any rules that handicappers normally would use. Well it would seem that somebody is clued in because so far looking at favorites it is more predictable than Saratoga.

Notice also that the statements that people make about speed not holding up well only applies to routes. at sprint distances speed is doing much better than at Saratoga.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The most unfair tracks are the ones where these horses are breaking down the most.It's not fair to have Baffert's 2 year old stakes horses having their lives ended at Del Mar in August or September.Guys like Baffert and Zayat are responsible for f'n up this breed to begin with.If these damn speed addicts aren't happy,then it's better for the breed (in the long run.) Things happen for a reason,and that's true of the existence of artificial track racing in California.Out here,there was no choice but to do it.Not enough horses could fill the races written.Simple as that.Horses could not stay sound enough on our dirt tracks.The track at Del Mar last year wasn't concrete at all,but the horses were breaking down over that surface too.If less horses die,and less jockeys get hurt (on artificial,) then that's the type of surface to be using.Those who feel otherwise have got some pretty crappy motives involved.If you have a dirt track that's as safe(and horses can stay sound on) then great.We are all a little too tolerant of the word "euthanized."

[SCUDSBROTHER]

And if your horse doesn't like turf or artificial,then that horse needs to live out his life in peace.However,those genes need to start being excluded from this breed.Keep doing that,and you'll have a great thoroughbred breed.

[TitanSooner]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

And if your horse doesn't like turf or artificial,then that horse needs to live out his life in peace.However,those genes need to start being excluded from this breed.Keep doing that,and you'll have a great thoroughbred breed.

Some very good points Scuds.. I just got back from Del Mar and if it wasn't for Santa Rosa, I would have lost my arse..

That being said, it's nice not seeing horses going 21 and 2, 44 flat, and pulling away every 6f race. Might as well handicap the quarters.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by GBBob

AP Through July 22:

Closers- 33%
Stalkers 25%
Pressers: 17%
Speed: 25%

Winning Margin:

1/2 length or less: 30%
3/4-2: 34%
2 1/4- 4: 22%
4 1/2+ 14%

Outside: 54%
Inside: 46%

Chalk: 29%
3-1 or less: 48%
7-2 to 9-1: 34%
10-1 + 18%

Average Payoff
Poly: $15.00
Turf: $13.39

hard to say the arlington poly is unpredictable when you're getting $8 or less on almost half the winners. alot of bettors are complaining about del mar being unpredictable. anybody know what percentage of 1st, 2nd and 3rd favs are winning? i'll bet not much difference from years past. i think the problems most 'cappers are having at del mar is in their heads. they're psyching themselves out as much as anything.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

through 8/4

Saratoga dirt;
fav win%, fav itm%, ave win payout, %wire sprints, %wire routes
26%, 61%, $6.38, 17%, 25%

DelMar poly;
33%, 66%, $6.39, 30%, 5%


So far we've heard that at Del Mar because of the polytrack it's totally random, you can't make any sense of the outcomes. Like its some topsy turvy world where you can't apply any rules that handicappers normally would use. Well it would seem that somebody is clued in because so far looking at favorites it is more predictable than Saratoga.

Notice also that the statements that people make about speed not holding up well only applies to routes. at sprint distances speed is doing much better than at Saratoga.

if i would have kept reading, i would have seen my questions answered.

i think the 'cappers that are complaining the most about del mar are those that crunch numbers, and del mar is bringing them a whole new set of numbers, and the number crunchers just don't want to adjust. they want their 22, 45, 110. they don't want to deal with 23, 47, 113. it's all relative. it will all crunch out the same if the proper variants are computed.

[ultracapper]

they're trying to save money on maintenance. cool. how much does it cost to throw some water on it a couple times a card? if they did, they'd still be saving a ton of money, wouldn't they. it's not like watering the track is the only maintenance they are saving by converting.

i play del mar everyday, and i have noticed what i think is massive amounts of surface being kicked up with every stride. i would think they would want to reduce some of that. it looks like debris is being thrown 15 feet into the air.

[cmorioles]

If the only thing that is changed in the game is the surface, eventually we'll breed horses fragile enough to break down on fake dirt as well.

I get tired of hearing how this stuff is so much safer. It is the drugs much more than the surface. Take the blinkers off people. A new surface is fine if it helps, but it won't do the job by itself.