Fab strike

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

just how do you actually see him running tomorrow??

I won't be betting on him....I don't like him in tomorrow's spot.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I won't be betting on him....I don't like him in tomorrow's spot.

as well you should not.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No they aren't. Often times Grade 3 sprint stakes feature tougher fractions than Grade 1 sprint stakes...you get much more cheap speed in those races.

oh good god man, don't play games. If Fabulous Strike is going to win any races against the fastest sprinters in the land, Gr1, Gr2, Gr3 doesn't matter, he will most definetely have to contest a hot pace and survive, or rate just behind and pounce. When he looked so awesome at Mountaineer there was nobody in the race. Who cares how he would fare being the lone speed against a field of all closers?

[dalakhani]

I think the jury is still out on this horse. In all of his losses since last june, he had acceptable excuses.

In the woody stephens, he was in the lead at the 6 furlong mark going in 108 and 4 and faded the last furlong. Hardly embarassing against the likes of too much bling and songster.

He didnt like the turf at monmouth.

He, like many others, didnt like the surface at calder.

If there is no discreet cat in this race, i would give this horse serious thought.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

oh good god man, don't play games. If Fabulous Strike is going to win any races against the fastest sprinters in the land, Gr1, Gr2, Gr3 doesn't matter, he will most definetely have to contest a hot pace and survive

I already gave my opinion of the race, and you know you are the one playing games....and it's getting a little tiresome.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I already gave my opinion of the race, and you know you are the one playing games....and it's getting a little tiresome.

sorry, just trying to follow your logic.

you said you had two knocks on FS, I agreed and said that those are the things he'll have to do to win sprints against the best, then you said no they aren't. If they aren't then why would they be considered knocks?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I agreed and said that those are the things he'll have to do to win sprints against the best, then you said no they aren't. If they aren't then why would they be considered knocks?

Because, he can lose to horses far LESS than "the best" and he can decimate "the best" if he catches them in the right spot.

First of all - let's define who "the best" horses are in this sprint division right now.

If you believe the Watchmaker Watch and the TVG sprint poll, it's Midnight Lute and Smokey Stover - as the two clear-cut consensus choices in that division.

Both of those two have been defeated at six furlongs by a Cal Bred named Sailors Sunset. Now, since Sailors Sunset has beaten both the #1 and #2 ranked horse in both polls - should he be a sprinter taken seriously? Of course not! - because the fact that he beat the best horses means NOTHING when you consider the circumstance edge he had!

In both victories he took advantage of unpressured leads and proved too elusive of a target.

Unlike last year, when the top races in the sprint division often seemed to be one moderate paced big race after another - there are many one-way speed horses in the division right now.

If you remember last year, Thor's Echo hadn't won a single race of any kind in 18 months going into the Breeders Cup Sprint - trainer Doug O' Neill wanted to run him in an allowance race at Oak Tree, but it didn't fill, so he entered him in the Ancient Title the next day where he ran 2nd at huge odds and got a big speed figure.

Thor's Echo was 15/1 in the Breeders Cup Sprint because he hadn't won in forever, was routinely beaten in cal bred races, and was a 4-year-old who had never won a Graded Stake in his life inspite of repeated tries...thus he lacked "the class" to win.

It turns out, in a race lacking much speed, his only asset, combined with a great trip was good enough for a very easy 4 length win.

You act as though Fabulous Strike will never catch top horses in a race void of one-way speed. I believe there is a very good chance he will at some point, and when he does, he will dominate.

On many occasions, horses of FAR lesser ability than FS have beaten multiple great horses of FAR greater status than any of the top horses in the sprint divison.

The moderate Angle Light (who was 3-for-20 lifetime with ZERO stakes wins not counting the Wood) beat two greats in Sham and Secretariat when he wasn't pressed on the lead. Mr. Zippity Do Dah beat greats like Gulch and Bet Twice in the same race when he wasn't pressed.

If Fabulous Strike isn't pressed, he will beat anything in his division. And if you think he will always catch fields over-flowing with speed and get pressed in top class sprint races against the divisions best horse - you are dreaming.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Because, he can lose to horses far LESS than "the best" and he can decimate "the best" if he catches them in the right spot.

First of all - let's define who "the best" horses are in this sprint division right now.

If you believe the Watchmaker Watch and the TVG sprint poll, it's Midnight Lute and Smokey Stover - as the two clear-cut consensus choices in that division.

Both of those two have been defeated at six furlongs by a Cal Bred named Sailors Sunset. Now, since Sailors Sunset has beaten both the #1 and #2 ranked horse in both polls - should he be a sprinter taken seriously? Of course not! - because the fact that he beat the best horses means NOTHING when you consider the circumstance edge he had!

In both victories he took advantage of unpressured leads and proved too elusive of a target.

Unlike last year, when the top races in the sprint division often seemed to be one moderate paced big race after another - there are many one-way speed horses in the division right now.

If you remember last year, Thor's Echo hadn't won a single race of any kind in 18 months going into the Breeders Cup Sprint - trainer Doug O' Neill wanted to run him in an allowance race at Oak Tree, but it didn't fill, so he entered him in the Ancient Title the next day where he ran 2nd at huge odds and got a big speed figure.

Thor's Echo was 15/1 in the Breeders Cup Sprint because he hadn't won in forever, was routinely beaten in cal bred races, and was a 4-year-old who had never won a Graded Stake in his life inspite of repeated tries...thus he lacked "the class" to win.

It turns out, in a race lacking much speed, his only asset, combined with a great trip was good enough for a very easy 4 length win.

You act as though Fabulous Strike will never catch top horses in a race void of one-way speed. I believe there is a very good chance he will at some point, and when he does, he will dominate.

On many occasions, horses of FAR lesser ability than FS have beaten multiple great horses of FAR greater status than any of the top horses in the sprint divison.

The moderate Angle Light (who was 3-for-20 lifetime with ZERO stakes wins not counting the Wood) beat two greats in Sham and Secretariat when he wasn't pressed on the lead. Mr. Zippity Do Dah beat greats like Gulch and Bet Twice in the same race when he wasn't pressed.

If Fabulous Strike isn't pressed, he will beat anything in his division. And if you think he will always catch fields over-flowing with speed and get pressed in top class sprint races against the divisions best horse - you are dreaming.

And you are dreaming if you think this horse will ever catch a soft enough field to win a G 1 race. He caught his slow early graded field at Churchill. And anyone who doesn't look at the CD race time with a jaundiced eye must believe not only Fabulous Strike's close but also Cougar Cat's as well. Who can really believe Cougar Cat sat close and closed up in 23 2/5?

And his fields are not always overflowing with horses of any kind, much less filled with speeed. In the Aristides, he beat four horses. In the Panhandle, he beat three horses. In his two Belmont wins he beat four horses.

FS is a very fast, fun horse to watch. I admire him and you for liking him.

As an aside, a lot of people think Secretariat was far from his best going into the Wood.

[TitanSooner]

wow.. that was a nice run

[King Glorious]

Nailed that one. This is why I'm the pro and you all suck.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

wow.. that was a nice run

I think you are putting it mildly.
I was EXTREMELY impressed with that run.

[Theatrical]

How sweet it is. Congrats to the Fabulous Strike fans. This made my day.

[ARyan]

Great run by a very good horse.

I love to see guys like Beattie and Jones win big races.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

And you are dreaming if you think this horse will ever catch a soft enough field to win a G 1 race.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I was just going to do that!

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I was wrong. I was very wrong. Very, very wrong.

Not the first time; won't be the last.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Nailed that one. This is why I'm the pro and you all suck.

We all suck. Playing the horses is about trying to suck at least a little less than the next guy.

[philcski]

All the people that bet Discreet Cat down to 4/5 off a 6 month layoff and a last place finish in a 10F race truly do suck.

Fabulous Strike has been my pick to win the BC Sprint for all of 2007 and I stand by my conviction after today. The track played EXTREMELY fair today IMO, and he dueled through some sick fractions. Throw out that Calder race, after FS and Smokey Stover's comeback races I think we can see that was a phony result.

Also, Talent Search is turning into a pretty nice horse if nobody's noticing. He's run second now to probably the East's two best sprinters.

[slotdirt]

I hope we can finally put to bed this notion of Discreet Cat being in the same league as the Ghostzappers of the world in terms of most talented horses to see the track in the last ten years or so.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I hope we can finally put to bed this notion of Discreet Cat being in the same league as the Ghostzappers of the world in terms of most talented horses to see the track in the last ten years or so.

He has never beat anything other than silver train. He really isn't in a league with ghostzapper.