Triple Crown?

[sumitas]

I do hope a horse knocks this guy off. It's gonna be tough tho.

I think Col John can do it. For sure his connections have much much more class than IEH or whatever they call themselves.

[dalakhani]

triple crown (barring injury) is a forgone conclusion. In saying that, it doesnt mean that he is better than any of the other horses that looked great winning the derby over the last couple of years only to come up short. Rather, it is more a reflection on how bad the rest of this crop is. There is no one running that is even close.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by sumitas

I do hope a horse knocks this guy off. It's gonna be tough tho.

Yeah, and which horse is going to get it done? Denis of Cork?

Not tough, impossible.

This is just a really bad crop with one stand out.

[Baranduin]

Two standouts, Dalakhani, it's just that one won't be able to run.....

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

After the Barbaro fiasco, in which TC talk was very strong after a similar Derby performance, I suppose people are resigned to not giving their hopes up anymore.

The difference this year is that there doesn't seem to be any Bernadini (who was still 12-1 in the Preakness nonetheless) on the horizon, unless that Harlem Rocker gets rerouted from Canada.

Canadian horses don't usually do well in American Triple Crown events with the exception of Northern Dancer and Sunny's Halo. Alydeed finished second in the Preakness off the Derby Trial, I guess you can make a case that Touch Gold was a product of Canadian racing, ran as a 2 yr old at Woodbine and was by a Canadian Sire and Mare the only exception was he bred in the U.S but it sure looks like there aren't too many new shooters on the horizon. Dahaar and Awesome Again were also late developers.

If Big Brown does go on to win the Triple Crown, the comparisons to Seattle Slew will be inevitible. There was some debate of his greatness due to the question that he didn't have the toughest competition to beat that year either and it was only his race against Affirmed and Exceller that solidified his reputation afterward that respect followed.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

Canadian horses don't usually do well in American Triple Crown events with the exception of Northern Dancer and Sunny's Halo. Alydeed finished second in the Preakness off the Derby Trial, I guess you can make a case that Touch Gold was a product of Canadian racing, ran as a 2 yr old at Woodbine and was by a Canadian Sire and Mare the only exception was he bred in the U.S but it sure looks like there aren't too many new shooters on the horizon. Dahaar and Awesome Again were also late developers.

Harlem Rocker comes out of Pletcher's barn though (which gives him a better chance of showing up at Pimlico). He isn't a product of Canadian racing.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Harlem Rocker comes out of Pletcher's barn though (which gives him a better chance of showing up at Pimlico). He isn't a product of Canadian racing.

He's an interesting horse and it is hard to guess which route Frank Stronach takes with this horse, since Stronach is a Canadian citizen he may choose the Plate. With Touch Gold he didn't have a choice but with Awesome Again who I think was trained by David Hoffmans at the time he chose the Plate. Maybe this horse turns up at Belmont to break up the party.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

He's an interesting horse and it is hard to guess which route Frank Stronach takes with this horse, since Stronach is a Canadian citizen he may choose the Plate. With Touch Gold he didn't have a choice but with Awesome Again who I think was trained by David Hoffmans at the time he chose the Plate. Maybe this horse turns up at Belmont to break up the party.

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

The Queen's Plate is June 22, so the timing is good if they want to take a shot at the Preakness. Dahaar in comparison last year went onto the Plate, not a bad purse at 1 million dollars. At this point there doesn't seem to be many that offer a challenge to Big Brown, in all fairness I thought he had a pretty wide trip today and still won with ease. Atleast with Harlem Rocker there is an upside from what we saw in the Withers, though to be honest it only came in a 4 horse field. He still has a ways to go.

[MarkyD]

Man, I like Big Brown, but cant stand Dutrow's comment at then end. You see him hugging his daughter and NBC has camera right on him, while he keeps telling her: "they can't beat this horse"

I hate hearing that line being used in sports. I gamble on sports every day of my life, and any pro would never mention that line.
This sport with these millionaires involved are true hollywoods. If only horses could talk.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think Harlem Rocker might be a serious horse but he can't win the Belmont. I'd probably bet him in the Preakness but would still be concerned with the distance. Maybe that half to Jazil and Rags will be good enough. . . Who knows. . . I would just really hate to see these connections win the TC.

In addition, I don't think distance will be a problem with this horse. It's more inexperience that may his undoing. Easy for me to say, but I'd try the formerly Sir Barton stks now renamed Barbaro stks on Pimlico Preakness Day. See how he comes out of that and then take a shot in the Belmont. Conceivably he could still run in the Plate if they choose to. There's no need to throw him to the wolves this early. Coa said after the race he is still very green.

It is interesting that there is not much of a
celebration on this horse's accomplishments.

Seems rather odd grasping for any
horse (even ones that have never gone 2 turns)
to try and beat Big Brown err... beat Dutrow et al.

The horse had to run as far if not further than any
horse in the race and ran it fast with seemingly
little effort. Looks like there is room for improvement.
This is supposed to be exciting. He might be great on
turf as well.

And Im thinkin maybe he will mess up his feet.
Bizarre.

[Danzig]

i'd like to remind everyone who put up a horse who wasn't a tc winner after their derby win, that they are ignoring that fact that there are always those who proclaim the ky derby winner the next tc winner...
i'd also remind everyone that we've seen horses who were damn good get this far before, only to fail later.
so, before you guarantee a tc win, think of spectacular bid, majestic prince and the like. then tell me again how this is a guarantee for big brown.

[Riot]

I hope he does prove himself exceptional, I'm a fan.

It was pretty ugly back behind he and Eight Belles. I don't know if any of the rest of them will get a Beyer over 100.

[_ed_]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'd like to remind everyone who put up a horse who wasn't a tc winner after their derby win, that they are ignoring that fact that there are always those who proclaim the ky derby winner the next tc winner...

Exactly, that was my reasoning for making this thread 30 minutes before the Derby was run.

I'm not going to proclaim a horse the next TC winner until the horse is just a couple of strides away from the post in the Belmont.

[horseofcourse]

Which Derby horses will run in the preakness? The only Derby horse I see running in the Preakness as likely perhaps is Recapturetheglory. I thought he acquitted himself all right today. Who else?? Obviously not Eight Belles. Denis of Cork if anything will go to the Belmont in 5 weeks. I don't think Tagg will run his 4th place horse back in 2 weeks...why would he?? Colonel John?? Which Derby horses will actually run in two weeks?

[hockey2315]

Pyro maybe?

Yeah it felt grate picking up that $113.40 payout on my double ticket. I felt so dam smart.

[CSC]

Honestly if this horse is right, how can Big Brown not be going to N.Y without TC aspirations. There is a big drop off to the second best 3 yr old at this moment with only a handful of possible new shooters on the horizon. There would have to be something awfully wrong with him to lose at Pimlico in a few weeks, it's not like he had a perfect trip today either.

And for those who can't root for the connections...



how could you not root for Desormeaux and his family after that tearjerker of a piece on NBC?