Big Brown Beyer 109

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Kasept

How could Big Brown be better a 'better' horse than Street Sense at this point of comparison of their careers? For starters, Street Sense had a juvenile campaign and was a juvenile champion. Secondly, Street Sense faced a vastly and inarguably better, more accomplished group of foes/contemporaries than Big Brown, through the same comparable period of their careers so far. And by speed figure ratings from all three major evaluators of speed, Street Sense is faster than Big Brown.

...just my opinion. it really doesnt mean much

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by freddymo

its hard they simply don't race horse that much anymore..Maybe IEAH won't hit the bid lol? I wonder if Claiborne will buy him it would be a welcomed change on the connection side.

Yeah, I know. Which I guess is why I want the next Triple Crown winner to come from a strong crop so that even if he's retired after the Belmont he'll have proven himself and will be able to further prove himself if the horses he beat go on to do big things. In this case it seems doubtful that the horses he beat in the Derby will go on to win much of anything on the dirt.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by The Bid

If Spectacular Bid can lose a TC bid, then this horse can

Absolutely...you need talent, health and luck....Big Brown has the talent, the "racing gods" determine the rest! But after Saturday, I'm not gonna bet against BB!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

That's exactly my biggest problem with it all. He could run two more races against nothing and retire completely unproven. Slew didn't fully prove himself until he was four which this horse will never get the chance to.

I dunno. I think it's a great thing that he's by Boundary, because I doubt there's any serious clamor to breed to him at this point. If he wins the Crown, definitely the breeders will come calling, but even if he just wins the Derby and Preakness, I still think he'll need to do more. Though nothing would surprise me at this point with all of the early retirements I've seen.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

In case anyone wonders, Big Brown's Derby was not rated higher than his super impressive Fla Derby as his PF there was -89.

Roman's numbers aren't very fair to off the pace runners like Street Sense.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Bravado2112

I suspect Beyer used an independent variant for the same reason Jerry Brown did at Thorograph and posted about yesterday:

don't have trackman work yet, but if the wind was as strong (24mph) as they reported on TV and in their faces leaving the Derby gate, it would slow down the time for that race significantly (they run through the stretch twice), and speed up the times for the one turn races significantly, especially for the ones longer than 6f. This is going to come up a very big figure-- On Beyer it would be about neg 2 TG, before adjusting for ground.

The other routes run 1.5f shorter into the alleged strong wind. 5 points is about 3 lengths at 10f on Beyers scale. It is a big stretch to say the wind caused that much difference over the extra 1.5 furlongs the horses ran into the wind.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No doubt. ANYONE can "see" that the FD was more impressive than
the DERBY.

I don't know that I would say a horse running alone uncontested on the lead, no matter how fast, is more impressive that what he did in the Derby.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I don't know that I would say a horse running alone uncontested on the lead, no matter how fast, is more impressive that what he did in the Derby.

tongue-in-cheek, CJ

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

tongue-in-cheek, CJ

I gotta work on that, I'm slipping in my older age.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Roman's numbers aren't very fair to off the pace runners like Street Sense.

Hard to justify that....remember, Monarchos got a -75, by far the highest in the last 10 years. Dr Roman takes more factors into consideration than Beyer, you can read about his methodology at his site.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Hard to justify that....remember, Monarchos got a -75, by far the highest in the last 10 years. Dr Roman takes more factors into consideration than Beyer, you can read about his methodology at his site.

hmmmmmmmm

Dr Roman

Doc Sartin

we need more 'doctors' (and their passionate followers) in racing

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Hard to justify that....remember, Monarchos got a -75, by far the highest in the last 10 years. Dr Roman takes more factors into consideration than Beyer, you can read about his methodology at his site.

I have read all about them. I wouldn't just say what I did without having a clue what I was talking about. Monarchos got a high number because despite being far back, the pace was extremely fast for that running.

Sincerely,

Dr. Cmorioles

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I wouldn't just say what I did without having a clue what I was talking about.

Why, you have a problem with assimilating on these forums?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Why, you have a problem with assimilating on these forums?

I use his numbers cause they work for me not cause he has a PhD, I refer to him as Dr Roman cause that's his academic title and it's traditional to do so. Geez! I had no idea whether you were familiar with his methodology as your comment was general in nature. Regarding Monarchos, he got his huge number for running a huge race but my point was that he was a closer...this in response to your post saying Roman's system was unfair to closers. (see...no Dr there).

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I use his numbers cause they work for me not cause he has a PhD, I refer to him as Dr Roman cause that's his academic title and it's traditional to do so. Geez! I had no idea whether you were familiar with his methodology as your comment was general in nature. Regarding Monarchos, he got his huge number for running a huge race but my point was that he was a closer...this in response to your post saying Roman's system was unfair to closers. (see...no Dr there).

sorry, I was goofing around with CJ who happens to be a friend of mine, and no I dont know much about the figures as I stated when I referenced Beyer. Now I am sure CJ does as he also stated.

[cmorioles]

I was joking about the Dr. thing because of TFMs post, nothing more.

I have had conversations with Dr. Roman, albeit a few years ago, and he seems like a great guy. I was just giving my opinion of the numbers, that is all.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I was joking about the Dr. thing because of TFMs post, nothing more.

I have had conversations with Dr. Roman, albeit a few years ago, and he seems like a great guy. I was just giving my opinion of the numbers, that is all.

I think likewise...of course Repent wants him shipped to Gitmo annd tortured by the Bush folks cause of his politics...lol!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

For what it's worth, here are Dr Roman's Performance Figures (I have used these the past 10 years as they seem to me much more accurate than Beyer numbers), they do take into account aspects of the trip not considered by Beyer...the lower the number, the better:
2008 Derby:
Big Brown...-68
Eight Belles...-51
Denis of Cork...-34
2007 Derby:
Street Sense...-52
Hard Spun...-49
Curlin...-29
Also, here are the PF's for the last 10 winners:
2008...Big Brown...-68
2007...Street Sense...-52
2006...Barbaro...-60
2005...Giacomo...-48
2004...Smarty Jones...-63
2003...Funny Cide...-60
2002...War Emblem...-61
2001...Monarchos...-75
2000...FuPeg...-57
1999...Charismatic...-48
Obviously, Dr Roman's figures contradict the notion that this is a bad group, except for Monarchos who absolutely freaked in the 2001 Derby, Big Brown stands above recent winners. Time will tell but for a horse to get such a number in only his fourth lifetime start would seem to indicate that his PF's will continue to increase. Every year, I hear "this is a crappy crop of three year olds"...especially after a horse such as Barbaro, Smarty Jones and Big Brown romp in the Derby...of course it's way too early to judge and as Kasept pointed out, many Derby horses were that in name only as their connections caught "Derby fever" as some do every year. Once they sort themselves out, some will be turf horses, sprinters and yes...like almost every year, claimers, while "new faces" will appear to challenge...I look forward to the Preakness and the next wave of contenders. But if he stays healthy...Big Brown will be something special, as a fan, I can only dream of him and Curlin facing off sometime down the road. I know recent history indicates this may never happen but that's the beauty of this sport...the possibilities!

i never heard the barbaro crop described as weak. that's why he got so many kudos, because he beat a very deep, very contentious field.

unlike the one this year. but for years, everyone said that in a year with one 'standout' in a year of bad horses, the tc could be won. this might be the year.
might

oh, and absolutely a race between curlin and big brown. make it a prep for the breeders cup, only call it the cheaters cup.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by freddymo

its hard they simply don't race horse that much anymore..Maybe IEAH won't hit the bid lol? I wonder if Claiborne will buy him it would be a welcomed change on the connection side.

I'd really like it if they do. I thought I understood that they'd pensioned Boundary. If so I'd bet they'd be more tenacious about getting him then perhaps they've been with other colts in the recent past. Let's face it, Darley's been snagging the big cheeses as of late, and Jackson's got his mitts on Curlin for the most part. Could do worse than replacing Boundary with such a nice looking, Derby-winning son. Say what you want about his breeding, he's got charisma out the whazoo.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I dunno. I think it's a great thing that he's by Boundary, because I doubt there's any serious clamor to breed to him at this point. If he wins the Crown, definitely the breeders will come calling, but even if he just wins the Derby and Preakness, I still think he'll need to do more. Though nothing would surprise me at this point with all of the early retirements I've seen.

yeah, boundary isn't exactly a home run hitter, til now...and he's pensioned. hard to tell what kind of sire he could have been, since he didn't get much time to produce a lot of foals. early fertility issues.