Why Andy Beyer is a Legend

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by Scav

If I had $500, I would have played it this way

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that (1x3x4x5) ($60)
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses (x2) ($120)
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less ($10 on top, $5 behind) ($75)
4) Win money ($245)

Total of $500

So assuming you hit all of those, by my math, that's approx. $8,400 on a $500 bet... not too bad.

[Scav]

I have to be honest in that I hope Andy talks about how he played it because I don't think alot of people know how to actually play a horse that they love, or get worthwhile information on. Matter of fact, I screwed up this weekend with Much Obliged, I should have crushed her, crushed that race matter of fact, and I got a measley win bet on her.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scav

As far as your comment on the P4 is concerned, the power of having a $20 winner IN THE FIRST LEG of a P4 is HUGE. The first leg has the most information available for the uninformed.

I think it's the opposite, scav. The fact that the winner took so much money probably made him an include on lots of tickets that wouldn't have had him otherwise. If they had to bet blindly into that leg of the PK4 chances are they'd be much less likely to include an unknown commodity and would be more likely to just use the horses that they had a better read on. If we say the horse was 10-1 in the PK4 with the race being where it was R2/Leg 1, he'd probably be at least double that in the last leg.

Originally Posted by Scav

As far as I am concerned, a P4 is a must play there because of the potential to spread in the other three races, and the LARGE potential of a p4 payout. With a win wager, you are maximized at a $20 payout on that win wager, on the P4 play, you can really make a huge score.

The Pk4 is only a must play without budgetary constraints. The PK4 structure that you suggested doesn't give enough coverage to make it worth it if you're only betting $500. 3X4X5 just isn't going to work - either you're constrained to using a lot of favorites - opening yourself up to a chalk out, or you're not using chalkier horses and decreasing your chances of hitting it.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by smuthg

So assuming you hit all of those, by my math, that's approx. $8,400 on a $500 bet... not too bad.

Not by my math. . .

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think it's the opposite, scav. The fact that the winner took so much money probably made him an include on lots of tickets that wouldn't have had him otherwise. If they had to bet blindly into that leg of the PK4 chances are they'd be much less likely to include an unknown commodity and would be more likely to just use the horses that they had a better read on. If we say the horse was 10-1 in the PK4 with the race being where it was R2/Leg 1, he'd probably be at least double that in the last leg.



The Pk4 is only a must play without budgetary constraints. The PK4 structure that you suggested doesn't give enough coverage to make it worth it if you're only betting $500. 3X4X5 just isn't going to work - either you're constrained to using a lot of favorites - opening yourself up to a chalk out, or you're not using chalkier horses and decreasing your chances of hitting it.

You are giving people too much credit in watching the board.

lets take said sequence into considering. You have this Emotivoal horse, and then you have an 8 horse field, 11 horse field, and 9 horse field......I think you could have easily went 3 deep in the 2nd leg, 5 deep in the 3rd leg, and 4 deep in the 4th leg....You would have had 38% of the field in the 2nd leg, 45% if the field in the 3rd leg, and 44% of the field in the last leg.

I would like to think that if I am giving myself the opportunity to split the field, that I can find the winner in my upper half.

We might just be too different players. Me personally, I would still have win money on the horse, but I would play some exotics to really crush the pools within that race, ESPECIALLY with a horse that is like this one, in the 8/1 - 15/1 range.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Anyone else think the pick 4 was a tad low considering a prohibitive favorite was beat in the first and last leg? And the 4th was such a crapshoot.

Looking at it right now, I think the best payout surrounding the horse was the early DD. The others seem right around par with the favorite running 2nd

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Not by my math. . .

I figured in a $2 Pick 4 and not a $1... At that number, I agree the win bet seems to make the most sense.

[hockey2315]

I disagree with 5 deep in the third leg - I know Fat Man loved the 1 but if you don't have that kind of opinion the race looks WIDE open. . . You've got the 1 (who I didn't personally like because he was a 12-time maiden), the 3 who was a first timer for turf sprint specialist Linda Rice, the 4 - a Pletcher cut-back with a huge Tomlinson, the 6 who showed a lot of speed last time and then died - but that was on yielding turf and Coa stayed, the 7 who was another hanger but had run very competitively in similar spots, the 8 whose a firster with some nice works from a trainer who has a great ROI with FTS, the 9 who was trained by Clement, and the 10 who didn't really run at all in his first race but now he gets blinkers and lasix.

That's 8 horses - not to mention that the odds-on favorite in the last leg finished last - a horse that many people probably singled or considered a stand-out.

The bottom line is that there's no reason to get greedy when you've already found great value - you have a free winner at 10-1!

Let's say that god/Andy Beyer (is there a difference?) told you that Emotival was definitely going to win - not just that he should win or that his odds didn't reflect his actual chances of winning. You have $500 and no knowledge of the rest of the order of finish or of how the other races will play out. You do, however, have access to all the handicapping materials you normally use. How would you use the $500?

[Scav]

It comes down to what you are content with? Me personally, i would have no problem with a $250 win wager on this horse, and getting knocked out of the others. At least I gave myself an opportunity to play around with good information into a 200k pool (Early P4 at NY) and other large pools, instead of topping out at 10/1.....

But again, it all depends on the person, the situation, and what they are content with.....

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Anyone else think the pick 4 was a tad low considering a prohibitive favorite was beat in the first and last leg? And the 4th was such a crapshoot.

Depends on who you speak to about this one.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have to be honest in that I hope Andy talks about how he played it because I don't think alot of people know how to actually play a horse that they love, or get worthwhile information on. Matter of fact, I screwed up this weekend with Much Obliged, I should have crushed her, crushed that race matter of fact, and I got a measley win bet on her.

you really think he wants to open that can of worms........

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scav

But again, it all depends on the person, the situation, and what they are content with.....

I guess it does - personally I can't understand why anyone would throw away free money for not so free money - even if there MAY be more of it. Seems sort of like people like my dad who wheel - "the exactas pay better than the win with everyone except for the 3 favorites" . . . O gee, I wonder why.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you really think he wants to open that can of worms........

I am not asking for numbers, nor would I ever, but I don't find the question inappropiate

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am not asking for numbers, nor would I ever, but I don't find the question inappropiate

true..but he shared this ..funny i had the horse myself..without andy b call..and the funny thing is he was the only other horse that looked like he might do ok vs pop rocker

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

true..but he shared this ..funny i had the horse myself..without andy b call..and the funny thing is he was the only other horse that looked like he might do ok vs pop rocker

and scav ..you are a legend in your own right..

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

and scav ..you are a legend in your own right..

far from it, I have legendary moments maybe, that is about it. zero consistency

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

true..but he shared this ..funny i had the horse myself..without andy b call..and the funny thing is he was the only other horse that looked like he might do ok vs pop rocker

i kicked myself for not using this horse, and that had nothing to do with Beyers numbers. it has everything to do with it being a real crappy field that anyone could beat. i looked at it a few times but then let it go. after the first quarter I knew I was dead. it was a costly mistake for me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i kicked myself for not using this horse, and that had nothing to do with Beyers numbers. it has everything to do with it being a real crappy field that anyone could beat. i looked at it a few times but then let it go. after the first quarter I knew I was dead. it was a costly mistake for me.

How could it have had anything to do with Beyer numbers?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How could it have had anything to do with Beyer numbers?

it couldn't have and didn't. I just meant to say that it made sense to use that horse on your pick4 ticket, even without having done your own research on his speed figures.

i'm just bitter because it cost me two pick threes and a nice pick four.

[sdjcom]

Glad To Hear Of Your Hit With Andy Beyer At 21.00, I,m A Bit Jealous
However How Many Has He Missed Betting Big Money? People Always Tell You Of The Big Hits , But Never About The 12 Str Races You Lost And Are Still In The Hole. Pros Tell No-one Of Their Hits. You
Should Have Kept This About Andy In Confidence.