5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

while IWR utterly stinks on synthetic tracks

could it be he just prefers races where rivals don't quicken in the final 16ths??

[Linny]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

His sire is 3-for-117 with 1st time turfers - and his dam couldn't outrun a goat on turf when she raced here - and turf and synthetic are pretty much the same thing -- so ... while IWR utterly stinks on synthetic tracks - I would have considered IWR the best pedigree projection to improve on dirt of the synthetic horses but he would only have been my longshot flyer for underneath in a race where I would have had knocks on everything.

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Linny

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

Goes to show how much faster IWR is...he stinks and still came up just that short against a specialist. Curlin "stunk on turf while finishing second in a GI to a BC Turf winner.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will offer an explanation. IWR's last two races were very good. But what did he beat? In the two NY races combined, he beat two horses with any graded stakes earnings. One other has come back to win, the rest are still eligible for non-winners of 1 allowance races. His win in the Wood was so visually impressive because of the trouble he overcame that it is easy to overlook what he beat that day.

Well, he beat West Side Bernie who I think is a pretty good colt. West Side Bernie ran pretty good races in both the Holy Bull and the Wood, and if he didn't have the unfortunate combination of the #1 post and Stewart Elliot on his back, I think he would be a serious contender here to hit the board. Actually, if he is somehow able to get a good trip despite those two very daunting obstacles, I could still see him getting a share.
Beating WSB as easily as he did in the Wood, despite a horrible trip, is one of the things that most impresses me about IWR.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The "who did he beat?" stuff is my favorite.

Terrain beat Pioneerof The Nile in there two synhtetic track meetings - one at Keeneland in the Futurity and the other in the BC Juvenile.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The "who did he beat?" stuff is my favorite.

Terrain beat Pioneerof The Nile in there two synhtetic track meetings - one at Keeneland in the Futurity and the other in the BC Juvenile.

But Terrain didn't win either of these races so that is not excatly a fair comparison.

Paul

[Sightseek]

They just showed the odds on Twinspires, Fresian Fire is 4-1

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Linny

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

I didn't say POTN was a confirmed synth specialist .. though my hunch is he will likely be proven one.

Go watch IWR's 3rd to POTN and PC in the Pro-Ride race ... it was terrible.

The Pampelmousse and a healthy Square Eddie before being rushed back insanely from a fracture are the good synthetic track horses.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I didn't say POTN was a confirmed synth specialist .. though my hunch is he will likely be proven one.

Go watch IWR's 3rd to POTN and PC in the Pro-Ride race ... it was terrible.

The Pampelmousse and a healthy Square Eddie before being rushed back insanely from a fracture are the good synthetic track horses.

i would include hold me back. he may not turn out a good one, but he's definitely a syn specialist.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pweizer

But Terrain didn't win either of these races so that is not excatly a fair comparison.

Paul

It's a fair comparison because he has the same closing style - and if anything Terrain had the tougher trip in both races.

It's the same if two speed horses hooked up - and one beat the other both times.

The difference was Bill Mott trained Pioneerof The Nile as a 2yo - and Mott is a terrible trainer of 2yo's.

POTN was a laughing stock with Mott.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Linny

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

if you watch the CaschCall where IWR ran well on synth vs. the specialist, and then continue in sequence to the Robert B Lewis you should notice a few things.
1. IWR is now the clear rival of POTN in both wagering and race tactics
2. Talamo makes 1st run in the Robert Lewis in an attempt to beat POTN(as a reaction to being unable to pass POTN when both quickened in the CashCall)
3. IWR runs a 23.4? 6f-8f quarter before slowing to a 6.4? final 16th (forgive me for not calculating these exactly once again)...

Horses don't run 23.4s if they are supposedly spinning their wheels.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Danzig

hold me back.

Another horse that Bill Mott trained at 2 (and still does) that improved bigtime from age 2 to age 3

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

3. IWR runs a 23.4? 6f-8f quarter before slowing to a 6.4? final 16th (forgive me for not calculating these exactly once again)...

Yeah - it's a very good idea to look at naked closing fractions of Pro-Ride races.

I hate to break it to you - but there was nothing outstanding about IWR's come home time that race. The come-home times at that track were lightning fast.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah - it's a very good idea to look at naked closing fractions of Pro-Ride races.

I hate to break it to you - but there was nothing outstanding about IWR's come home time that race. The come-home times at that track were lightning fast.

not the come-home time (which he slowed, which was my point)
the 6-8furlong section


If you can't see that 23.4 for the 6f-8f portion of a 8.5furlong race over the Santa Anita course is very good, there is something wrong.

the horse slowed after being asked for a longer drive
The reason he was asked for a longer drive was because he lost the CashCall directly because he couldn't quicken with POTN
The result of being asked for a longer drive was he weakened.

there was no spinning of wheels. There was no "didn't handle the surface"
He ran a top class race in the CashCall , then ran a top effort but was ASKED TO DO MORE in the robert lewis.

In the Gotham and Wood there were no horses quickening in the final 16ths. IWR simply had to continue on with his relentless one paced style.
The style itself is good enough to win the derby.

The question will be whether my horse will run him down in the stretch when he begins to slightly weaken as was shown in the Robert Lewis.

Then the experts can say IWR was spinning his wheels in the slop.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

Yes, yes, yes. Very well said.

Originally Posted by philski

I have a big problem with POTN, and it has nothing to do with synthetics versus dirt.

He's too slow.

Exactly.

--Dunbar

[tjfla]

Other than the Sam Davis has General Quarters done anything on the dirt??

[moses]

What does everyone make of the fact that Garrett Gomez has decided to ride POTN over Dunkirk? That concerns me a bit, although I like Dunkirk.

Everyone is down on Friesan Fire on here, it seems, but I've got to say I like the horse. The 7 week lay-off scares me a bit, but I think I'm going to put FF on top here.

Longshots that I'll throw in the exotics -- Musket Man and Mr. Hot Stuff.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Other than the Sam Davis has General Quarters done anything on the dirt??

The maiden win, and then a a couple average efforts at Churchill, and then strong races in the Inaugural, Pasco, and Tampa Derby.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

The maiden win, and then a a couple average efforts at Churchill, and then strong races in the Inaugural, Pasco, and Tampa Derby.

I wouldnt call a 5th in the Tampa Derby Strong!!! LOL

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by tjfla

I wouldnt call a 5th in the Tampa Derby Strong!!! LOL

well, he did encoun


wait a minute... , you're tjfla, the same guy who asked the General Quarters question.

rhetorical stuff always gets me, sorry