Jms62 vs. Hockey2315 Stakes Contest

[hockey2315]

Wow that's sad.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Wow that's sad.

Listen; don't be so hard on yourself... The Pro's offer 3 or 4 choices. We are trying to get prices home. I often pass up who I think will win for who I think CAN win at a decent price.. I am sure you are doing the same... When all is said and done I still am confident I will have a flat bet win profit...
Remember and I don;t recall who qouted this.
"There isn't a man alive who paid his mortgage at 6-5"

[hockey2315]

I agree with everything you're saying. Obviously the sample size so far is too small to make anything of either of our results. I wish I could say my real bets were doing better, but I'd kill for a winning 5-1 shot right now.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I agree with everything you're saying. Obviously the sample size so far is too small to make anything of either of our results. I wish I could say my real bets were doing better, but I'd kill for a winning 5-1 shot right now.

Hang in there.... It'll turn your way it always does... Just don't blow out before it does...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by jms62

Listen; don't be so hard on yourself... The Pro's offer 3 or 4 choices. We are trying to get prices home. I often pass up who I think will win for who I think CAN win at a decent price.. I am sure you are doing the same... When all is said and done I still am confident I will have a flat bet win profit...
[/b]

I haven't been following your picks, either here or in general but showing a flat bet profit betting win is not as easy as you might think.

Of course, if you could do it spot playing, you should also be able to do it over the long term (at least theory dictates that much), which would put you at the upper echelon of players.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I haven't been following your picks, either here or in general but showing a flat bet profit betting win is not as easy as you might think.

Of course, if you could do it spot playing, you should also be able to do it over the long term (at least theory dictates that much), which would put you at the upper echelon of players.

Until you've tried it, earning a positive ROI for steady selections might seem easy. It's not.

NT

[TheSpyder]

Doing the Saratoga meet contest last year was a real eye opener. Only 3-4 out of 60 players turned a profit picking races over 36 days where they had thir choice of 36 out of 350+ races. I say from looking at that, there's little chance either of you show a profit.

This is a brutal game we play.

Spyder

[jms62]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

Doing the Saratoga meet contest last year was a real eye opener. Only 3-4 out of 60 players turned a profit picking races over 36 days where they had thir choice of 36 out of 350+ races. I say from looking at that, there's little chance either of you show a profit.

This is a brutal game we play.

Spyder

Just curious. If you were handicapping it; what odds would you put on me returning a positive return.

[jms62]

7/18/2009 Robert G. Dick Memorial S. III 11 Furlongs (T) 3+ Delaware Park
7/18/2009 Delaware Oaks II 8.5 Furlongs 3 Delaware Park
7/18/2009 Jaipur S. III 6 Furlongs (T) 3+ Belmont Park
7/18/2009 Virginia Derby II 10 Furlongs (T) 3 Colonial Downs
7/18/2009 Virginia Oaks III 9 Furlongs (T) 3 Colonial Downs
7/18/2009 Arlington Oaks III 9 Furlongs 3 Arlington Park
7/18/2009 Swaps S. II 9 Furlongs 3 Hollywood Park
7/18/2009 A Gleam H. II 7 Furlongs 3+ Hollywood Park

Additional Stats

[robfla]

Originally Posted by jms62

Just curious. If you were handicapping it; what odds would you put on me returning a positive return.

99:1

[jms62]

Originally Posted by robfla

99:1

You very well may be right but I'll offer you an overlay, would you give me 40-1 ? Donation to the throughbred charity of the winners choice.

[hockey2315]

DEL R7 - Delaware Oaks - #3 Livin Lovin (Alt: #4 Careless Jewel)DEL R9 - RG Dick Memorial H. -* #6 Dyna’s Lassie (Alt: #9 Dress Rehearsal)BEL R9 - Jaipur S. - #7 Le Grand Cru (Alt: #5 Silver Timber)CNL R10 - Virginia Oaks - #3 Oh So Nice (Alt: #4 Excelente)CNL R11 - Virginia Derby - #10 Lime Rickey (Alt: #7 Hold Me Back)AP R9 - Arlington Oaks - #2 Hot Cha Cha (Alt: #3 Always in My Heart)HOL R6 - A Gleam H. - #3 Modification (Alt: #4 Silver Swallow)HOL R8 - Swaps S. -* #4 Misremembered (Alt: #2 Massone)

[jms62]

3:57 Delaware Oaks II 8.5 Furlongs 3 Delaware Park
4-Careless Jewel alt: 3-Livin Loven

4:51 Robert G. Dick Memorial S. III 11 Furlongs (T) 3+ Delaware Park
2-Jaunty Gale alt: 3-Trensa

5:14 Virginia Oaks III 9 Furlongs (T) 3 Colonial Downs
10-Blind Date alt: 4-Excelente

5:17 Jaipur S. III 6 Furlongs (T) 3+ Belmont Park
4-Due Date alt: 7-Le Grand Cru

5:59 Virginia Derby II 10 Furlongs (T) 3 Colonial Downs
1-Affirmatif alt: 10-Hold Me Back

6:03 Arlington Oaks III 9 Furlongs 3 Arlington Park
6-Peach Brew alt: 2-Hot Cha Cha

6:38 A Gleam H. II 7 Furlongs 3+ Hollywood Park
2-Coco Belle alt: 9-Evita Argentina

7/18/2009 Swaps S. II 9 Furlongs 3 Hollywood Park
7-Quindici Man alt: 8-Grazen

[jms62]

Can't post the updates due to the 39 KB restriction on uploads on this site... I guess they are stuck in a 1987 time warp..

I lead by 62.90 and am winning at a 24% clip with a 61% ITM.. I currently show a flat bet profit of 25.40

You are winning at a 15% rate with a 33% ITM.. With the fortunate scratch you are showing a flat bet profit of -7.5 and still are in he hunt to return a flat bet profit once you get hot.

[jms62]

7/25/2009 Coaching Club American Oaks I 10 Furlongs 3 Belmont Park
7/25/2009 Eddie Read H. I 9 Furlongs (T) 3+ Del Mar

[jms62]

5:17 Coaching Club American Oaks I 10 Furlongs 3 Belmont Park
3-Don't Forget Gill alt 2-Wynning Ride

8:35 Eddie Read H. I 9 Furlongs (T) 3+ Del Mar
6-Artiste Royal alt 5-Awesome Gem

Good Luck!

[hockey2315]

Coaching Club American Oaks - #2-Wynning Ride (Alt: #1 Livin Lovin)

Eddie Read H. - #2 Dakota Phone (Alt: #7 Richard's Kid)

[the_fat_man]

Having those horses running in a G1 (the CCAO) is flat out LAUGHABLE. Given the history of the race, all the great fillies that participated in it, this is an embarrassment. And the only thing worse is betting on it.

I know at least one of you guys might be a Platonist. And you know what Pato had to say about UGLY in his cosmology/cosmogony (and overall philosophy).

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Having those horses running in a G1 (the CCAO) is flat out LAUGHABLE. Given the history of the race, all the great fillies that participated in it, this is an embarrassment. And the only thing worse is betting on it.

I know at least one of you guys might be a Platonist. And you know what Pato had to say about UGLY in his cosmology/cosmogony (and overall philosophy).

Could be worse had Rachel Alexandra been entered, betting against 1/9 shots is certainly not preferable.

To me, Hightop is very playable at respectable odds but as I cautioned earlier yesterday, The Ass-man's horses could be suspect while he is under a stay from a suspension which makes it interesting guess work.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Having those horses running in a G1 (the CCAO) is flat out LAUGHABLE. Given the history of the race, all the great fillies that participated in it, this is an embarrassment. And the only thing worse is betting on it.

I know at least one of you guys might be a Platonist. And you know what Pato had to say about UGLY in his cosmology/cosmogony (and overall philosophy).

I don't think it's a step-down from Wonder lady Anne L, Octave, and a 4 horse race last year.

NT