Rachel vs. Zenyatta: Which run the better race?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I get the feeling that the only chance this has of happening is if Monmouth or Delaware creates a race. Shirreffs doesn't want to run out of the detention barn so that would make NY unlikely. Jackson doesn't want to run on junk so that rules out a few other places. Monmouth made a race for Big Brown last year. Maybe they'll do one for this race this year.

If NYRA doesn't get it done its a travesty

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If they could deliver Serling for the people ... a Rachel Alexandra VS Zenyatta match-up will be a piece of cake.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If NYRA doesn't get it done its a travesty

It isn't that they don't want to but they have that detention barn and Shirrefs doesn't like it. What can NYRA do about that?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It isn't that they don't want to but they have that detention barn and Shirrefs doesn't like it. What can NYRA do about that?

Easy answer just put Scott Lake in charge of security for the night.. BTW GMBOBS next horse will be "Schultz"

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It isn't that they don't want to but they have that detention barn and Shirrefs doesn't like it. What can NYRA do about that?

he says he has a problem with the detention barn? Is he still bitter about After Market losing to Trippi's Storm or something?

Shirreffs has a flat bet profit with all of his starters to race since 1995 - a total of over 1,650 starters.

People think of Pletcher as some great trainer ... he's never even once flirted with showing a flat bet profit for a single year in any one of the last 12 years. There are guys out there with big names .. though not quite as big as Pletcher's .. who are near locks to flirt with them every year, and sometimes string together 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 profitable years in a row.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

People think of Pletcher as some great trainer ...

Those not out to expose Wolfson (or Dutrow) every chance they get are in the minority in not considering Pletcher a great trainer. Great cheat, yes; great trainer, now. I mean, his stuff was so strong that his horses not only survived those Johnny V WIDE trip specials but thrived under them. Now, that's potent ****.

[GPK]

Sign of the Apocalypse:

Jelly Roll Rumble being mentioned in the same thread as Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I get the feeling that the only chance this has of happening is if Monmouth or Delaware creates a race. Shirreffs doesn't want to run out of the detention barn so that would make NY unlikely. Jackson doesn't want to run on junk so that rules out a few other places. Monmouth made a race for Big Brown last year. Maybe they'll do one for this race this year.

they are closed though after Saratoga?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Those not out to expose Wolfson (or Dutrow) every chance they get are in the minority in not considering Pletcher a great trainer. Great cheat, yes; great trainer, now. I mean, his stuff was so strong that his horses not only survived those Johnny V WIDE trip specials but thrived under them. Now, that's potent ****.

Pletcher had his share of suspicious streaks when his barn consisting of the choiciest of homebreds, most expensive of yearlings in this country, and most athletic of 2yo sale horses out there - would jump up and get red hot.

Mostly in the winter at Gulfstream - though also during the first half of a Saratoga meet or three.

He had his Mepivacaine moment - and pulled off a hat trick with Freedom's Daughter, Warners, and Left Bank once .. a trio of big moveups in a short period who all took a dirt nap shortly after.

However, Pletcher is a poster boy for hay, oats, and water from a numbers standpoint. Just because his machine comes out smoking at the start of every new year going into the major 2yo sales ... dies off till late July ... and sometimes stages a summer rally into the Spa Select yearling sale and Keeneland's Sept sale ... before dying again there after ... that's more about being streaky than year long magic like you get from some of the other guys.

I don't know though ... maybe Pletcher just gets his shoes right and cleans the teeth real nice at certain key points on the calender.

Pletcher has started almost a thousand horses at Belmont Park since the start of 2004 .. his ROI is a laughable $1.39 and if you eliminate the early season 2yo dashes less than 6 furlongs where he's over 30% (25-for-82) - he's even worse. He becomes a joke.

[declansharbor]

For those that thought maybe they would meet up this summer:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...kely-before-bc


As owners, we plan for the Breeders’ Cup,” continued Moss. “That is where championships are supposed to be resolved. My brain is fighting my heart on this, because I’d like to give Zenyatta every chance to remove any doubts about her place in history, and Rachel Alexandra would be a challenge. She’s an amazing talent. We’d like to meet her, but we don’t want to swerve out of our program, because we still have the Breeders’ Cup foremost in our sights.

“So while we remain open, right now we’re planning to go about our business, which is to go to Del Mar for the Clement Hirsch (gr. I, Aug. 9). We may run against the boys at some point, and we’re open to meeting Rachel Alexandra perhaps after the Breeders’ Cup.”

Moss said it was unlikely that Zenyatta would remain in training for a campaign as a 6-year-old next year.

With Zenyatta winning her 11th race without a defeat in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I) June 27 at Hollywood and Rachel Alexandra taking the Mother Goose (gr. I) with consummate ease the same day at Belmont Park, the clamor to see the two distaffers meet is growing stronger by the day. Moss said if the Breeders’ Cup was held in another location this year, he would take Zenyatta on the road to acclimate her to those surroundings.

But he shot down the notion of going to Saratoga for the Go For Wand (gr. I, Aug. 2) or the Personal Ensign (gr. I, Aug. 30), or to Belmont Park for the Oct. 3 Beldame (Oct. 3).

“Every venue has its idiosyncrasies that are risky,” noted Moss. “We had a very bad experience with Giacomo going to the detention barn at Belmont, which threw him out of his game for the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He went nuts (finishing seventh, beaten nearly 18 lengths). At Saratoga, you have the detention barn, plus tight turns that would compromise Zenyatta given her running style of coming wide from behind.

[blackthroatedwind]

In the previous 24 months, Todd has won with only 4 2YO firsters in dirt sprints at all NYRA tracks.

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

For those that thought maybe they would meet up this summer:

“Every venue has its idiosyncrasies that are risky,” noted Moss. “We had a very bad experience with Giacomo going to the detention barn at Belmont, which threw him out of his game for the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He went nuts (finishing seventh, beaten nearly 18 lengths). At Saratoga, you have the detention barn, plus tight turns that would compromise Zenyatta given her running style of coming wide from behind.

The detention barn threw Giacomo off his game for the Belmont Stakes? That could be as laughable of a quote as I have ever seen. More like faster and better horses threw Giacomo off his game for the Belmont Stakes. Moss is in la-la land if he thought it would have mattered if Giacomo was in the Detention Barn or not that year for the Belmont Stakes against Afleet Alex. But they can think and believe all they want.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In the previous 24 months, Todd has won with only 4 2YO firsters in dirt sprints at all NYRA tracks.

Yeah - ever since they did away with the Keeneland July Select sale back in 2003 - he doesn't seem to care as much about having as strong of a showing at Belmont spring/summer leading into that super important sale.

He can at least take pride in knowing that he got a classic placing with the nations highest priced yearling in Dunkirk .. and he got big debut wins out of both Munnings and Mr Mistoffalees .. who were the 2nd and 3rd highest priced horses out FT Calder behind only Desert Party.

It's too bad he didn't have as much luck from the super expensive non big ticket items.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

At Saratoga, you have the detention barn, plus tight turns that would compromise Zenyatta given her running style of coming wide from behind.[/b]

I don't have the dimensions but I would doubt that SAR has tighter turns than HOL or SA or DMR or is less conducive to closers than these other tracks. I wouldn't doubt, however, that NYRA would mess with the track to ensure fast times. And that a speed bias would be part of the package. Don't blame him one bit. I'd sit in CALI and take my chances against the EUROS in the Classic. POLY is FAIR, doctored DIRT ISN'T.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

The detention barn threw Giacomo off his game for the Belmont Stakes? That could be as laughable of a quote as I have ever seen. More like faster and better horses threw Giacomo off his game for the Belmont Stakes. Moss is in la-la land if he thought it would have mattered if Giacomo was in the Detention Barn or not that year for the Belmont Stakes against Afleet Alex. But they can think and believe all they want.

Giacomo was moving like a winner after 9.5 furlongs and stopped like he got shot with a bebe gun at the top of the stretch.

I doubt the detention barn had anything to do with it - but something obviously went badly wrong with him inside the quarter pole. With a grinder - You don't look like your loaded and under a hold while passing the leader on the far turn ... only to have claiming and allowance horses you went by beat you home.

[King Glorious]

Did this incident happen with Giacomo in the last couple of days or did he know it before he went off spouting about how he just may ship to NY? He had no intention of shipping. They said so earlier when they said that it's too late in the year to ship since the BC is at their home. So why did he even mention shipping the other day? Then to come back with a lame excuse like the track? Is he really serious? Does he think we are that stupid? He runs at 9f Hollywood Park......and at 8f Santa Anita....but Saratoga is too small? Ok, then go to Belmont. Surely those turns aren't too tight.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by CSC

Interesting number even after the new synth Beyers were instituted, where the top beyers are higher and the lower one's are adjusted more modestly. One must conclude The Beyer for Z was not too impressive if the number is correct otherwise there would be an even greater gap prior to the new synth beyers.

By the old (conventional?) speed charts, Zenyatta would have gotten about 100.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

POLY is FAIR, doctored DIRT ISN'T.

Synthetics have far more biases than dirt does, and they are many times induced by human maintenance decisions.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Synthetics have far more biases than dirt does, and they are many times induced by human maintenance decisions.

Sure. This is why all those DIRT players that had gotten so comfortable playing their speed biases over the years are up in arms over the switch to POLY. For evidence, read any number of threads over at that other forum, and this one as well. What's interesting is that they all swear that the reason they can't win is that POLY has all these 'biases'. Now, that's ironic.

I see it as just about the fairest surface out there -- fairer even than turf.

DIRT is old news. The unfairness of the dirt speed bias needs to end. The present meet at BEL, with all those off the turf races, is a perfect example of how useless DIRT is. Compare this to WO or AP presently: when it rains, they just run on the POLY and hardly anybody notices.

[cmorioles]

At least on turf, the conditions aren't manipulated by the maintenance crew. It is much easier to manipulate rubber than it is dirt. I don't mind synthetics as a bettor, don't really like them as a fan.

As for the Zenyatta debate, she has raced with a surface and/or pace bias towards her style in most starts. I don't think her dirt win was anything special, and if she faces Rachel on dirt, she will lose.