I Really Wish I Could Have Seen......

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Bluegrass Cat VS Rockport Harbor

Giacomo VS Mine That Bird

Colonel John VS Sea Hero

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Jazil VS D' Tara

[miraja2]

Denis of Cork vs. Steppenwolfer

(Winner advances to face Andromeda's Hero)

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

So much for allowing horses like Hansel and Best Pal to race into peak form. No matter what you do later in the year, those losses in the prep races really come back to haunt you.

Just to come back to reality, recall that Hansel ended up a dual classic winner and Eclipse Champion while Best Pal won about a trillion dollars.

I guess we don't need to tackle the Preakness, where both of Dinard's archrivals in CA, Olympio and Best Pal couldn't get within 10 lengths of Hansel.

Wait. Weren't we talking about how Hansel and Dinard were running leading up to the derby, and why Dinard wasn't the lock I thought he was? I'm not sure what your points have to do with the original purpose of our comparisons. I certainly don't.

By the way, were you aware that Hansel ran in the Kentucky Derby and ran fifth by over 10 lengths? Do you think that if a healthy Dinard had run in the derby, that Hansel would have picked it up and ran better?

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The Prix Omnium II is a listed prep for the French 2000 Guineas. In recent years, Arlington Million winner Spirit One, multiple Group 1 winner American Post, Del Mar Derby winner Blackdoun, Champion winner Literato have come out of the race. The year after Arazi, future Queen Elizabeth winner Bigstone won it.

The claimers that Arazi handled that day, Supermec and River Majesty later came to the States and won or placed in stakes. River Majesty was multiple Group 1 placed to horses like Paradise Creek, Kiris Clown, and Solar Splendor.

At the time that race was run, most of the Euro commentators of the day stated that field was terrible. Arazi galloped and could have won by about 40.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If pedigree is any indication, Arazi was cut out to be a miler. His 3/4 brother by Rahy (a son of Arazi's sire, the good miler Blushing Groom), Noverre excelled at a mile. His second dam also produced middle distance turf horse, Joyeux Danseur.

Perhaps, like Apollo in the Jim Beam, he was simply out of his range. Of course, he never ran into Dinard prior to the Derby.

A healthy and fit Arazi, yeah, that might have been a different story in his derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Going into the Kentucky Derby?

Absolutely. He ran a 106 and 107 in his final two fast track prep races. A. P. Indy ran a 100 and a 95 in his.

Not only did Lil E Tee own a figure edge between 4-to-7 lengths over A. P. Indy .. but he also owned a seasoning edge .. having made 4 prior starts in 3 preps to just 2 starts for Ap Indy.

Taking into consideration that Indy was likely not peaking at the SA Derby, combined with a retardedly low figure for that race (what, no split variant?), I think it's safe to take the Peter Pan as a more realistic expectation of what Indy was going to do in his next start (which was his next start!), the Ky. Derby. If you take that approach, their preps were really not far apart at all, and again, that 95 BSF is moronic.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Just because Lil E. Tee was coming into the Derby as a better horse than A. P. Indy ... doesn't mean he was a better horse

A. P. Indy possibly had an issue bothering him in his preps - and with time to recover - he ran to the level of Lil E Tee. Lil E Tee obviously had his physical issues after the Preakness. He didn't race again at age 3 and only made 3 more starts.

It's unfair and insane to compare the two based on what they've done as sires. Lil E. Tee is an obscurely bred type who was bought from a 2yo in training sale for just 25K. A. P. Indy is a royally bred type who sold for a staggering $2,900,000 as a yearling.

Who compared them as stallions?

I've got another question for you. Say for the moment that I agree with everything you are saying here. Say also AP Indy does indeed run in the race. Does Lil E. Tee go off favored over Indy? I'm going to guess that almost everyone, besides you, would realize that 95 figure is bullshid and that Indy would have gone off as the strong favorite. What's your thought on that?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm going to guess that almost everyone, besides you, would realize that 95 figure is bullshid and that Indy would have gone off as the strong favorite. What's your thought on that?

How exactly was that 95 figure BS?

The race went 2 full seconds slower than Another Review's race the same day.

Why would they split the variant? Was there some extreme weather conditions that day ... or was it just a case of the Santa Anita track superintendant trying to slow the track down as much as possible before the race - and trying to speed it up to normal after the race - in hopes of fooling the figure makers?

Bottom line ... the winner of that race was scratched from his next start because of a physical issue. The 2nd place finisher and 3rd place finisher both didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Maybe Another Review should have got a 124 and A P Indy a 105?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Bluegrass Cat VS Rockport Harbor

Giacomo VS Mine That Bird

Colonel John VS Sea Hero

Rockport when healthy

Giacomo

Sea Hero

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Jazil VS D' Tara

This one is actually easy...

D'TARA

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Wait. Weren't we talking about how Hansel and Dinard were running leading up to the derby, and why Dinard wasn't the lock I thought he was? I'm not sure what your points have to do with the original purpose of our comparisons. I certainly don't.

Well your other contention was that Dinard was lengths better than both Best Pal and Hansel (thus he was a lock). That almost certainly was not the case.

By the way, were you aware that Hansel ran in the Kentucky Derby and ran fifth by over 10 lengths? Do you think that if a healthy Dinard had run in the derby, that Hansel would have picked it up and ran better?

Actually, Hansel ran 10th as the favorite. Considering both his final prep efforts and subsequent classic runs, isn't that effort a bit of an anomaly?

And yet I'm sure Dinard couldn't possibly have thrown in a clunker (if he could actually make it to the starting gate), even though reports were that he was training poorly over the CD surface.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by sammy

i did see Onion beat Secretariat.

Did you cry?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think we have had this discussion about 37 times, but just out of curiosity, at what distance would you have wanted to see your namesake compete with the big boys? Certainly not 10f. They would have destroyed him.

8f. Even up to 9f. I think beyond that, they start to even out. Depending on who else was in the race and how the pace played out, they might never catch KG going 10f. But at 8f, I don't think they'd have a chance of catching him.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How exactly was that 95 figure BS?

The race went 2 full seconds slower than Another Review's race the same day.

Why would they split the variant? Was there some extreme weather conditions that day ... or was it just a case of the Santa Anita track superintendant trying to slow the track down as much as possible before the race - and trying to speed it up to normal after the race - in hopes of fooling the figure makers?

Bottom line ... the winner of that race was scratched from his next start because of a physical issue. The 2nd place finisher and 3rd place finisher both didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Maybe Another Review should have got a 124 and A P Indy a 105?

Track supers do weird things. Figure makers do exactly what you describe all the time. When they get a puzzling result, they love splitting variants.

If you watch that race and thought, hmm, those horses are only about a 95 BSF quality type, then clearly your judgment is impaired. That was a terrific race, by terrific horses, and that figure was no way indicative of how good that race was.

You really should know by now that figures are often misleading, if not outright wrong.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How exactly was that 95 figure BS?

The race went 2 full seconds slower than Another Review's race the same day.

Why would they split the variant? Was there some extreme weather conditions that day ... or was it just a case of the Santa Anita track superintendant trying to slow the track down as much as possible before the race - and trying to speed it up to normal after the race - in hopes of fooling the figure makers?

Bottom line ... the winner of that race was scratched from his next start because of a physical issue. The 2nd place finisher and 3rd place finisher both didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

Maybe Another Review should have got a 124 and A P Indy a 105?

Oh, and you neglected to answer my question about favoritism in the derby that year. Do you think Lil E. Tee was going to go off at lower odds than Indy?

If not, why? Just cause Indy had the expensive price tag and the fancy pedigree?

Maybe because people might have realized who was really the better horse, ridiculous figures or not?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Well your other contention was that Dinard was lengths better than both Best Pal and Hansel (thus he was a lock). That almost certainly was not the case.

Watching him progress through his races, he was a horse to me that was already really good and had a ton more upside to him. So, to my eyes, he was already better than Hansel and/or Best Pal and I fully expected him to keep getting better.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Actually, Hansel ran 10th as the favorite. Considering both his final prep efforts and subsequent classic runs, isn't that effort a bit of an anomaly?

Sorry there, my mistake. I don't know why I thought he was fifth. I was probably overrating him??

I think his final two preps were really nice, but if there was an anomaly in his race record, those two races were it. As for his two classic wins, the Preakness was his shining moment, but Corporate Report and Mane Minister weren't much.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

And yet I'm sure Dinard couldn't possibly have thrown in a clunker (if he could actually make it to the starting gate), even though reports were that he was training poorly over the CD surface.

He never threw in a clunker.

As for those reports of him training poorly over the CD surface, I think that was entirely likely a result of his injury.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Track supers do weird things. Figure makers do exactly what you describe all the time. When they get a puzzling result, they love splitting variants.

Facepalm.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Oh, and you neglected to answer my question about favoritism in the derby that year. Do you think Lil E. Tee was going to go off at lower odds than Indy?

If not, why? Just cause Indy had the expensive price tag and the fancy pedigree?

Maybe because people might have realized who was really the better horse, ridiculous figures or not?

Of course Lil E Tee would have been a bigger price ... he finished closely behind eventual Preakness winner Pine Bluff twice at Oaklawn.

Horses don't get bet in that race solely on the basis of big recent figs. I think both Charismatic and War Emblem had the fields highest last out figure going into the Derby ... and both were huge prices.

Variant splits are normally the result of extreme wind and weather. Again - the race was in early April - the winner was scratched out of his next race .. and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers didn't win a single race the rest of the year.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Facepalm.

Whatever man.

Back then, it was not uncommon at all to see a lower level horse run a faster time than a stakes race on the same card and have the stakes race come back faster. Sometimes much faster.

At some point in the last five to ten years, some bright individual figured out that that makes them look kinda stupid.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think his final two preps were really nice, but if there was an anomaly in his race record, those two races were it. As for his two classic wins, the Preakness was his shining moment, but Corporate Report and Mane Minister weren't much.

You mean Travers winner Corporate Report? And again, let's ignore Best Pal and Olympio because they didn't actually hit the board so it was if they weren't even there.

Neither Olympio nor Best Pal had a viable excuse for getting lit up by Hansel in the Preakness. Both didn't miss anytime following their defeats and in fact finished the last half of the year strongly.

While one would have to concede off the winter Santa Anita races that Dinard held a slight edge over those two, it certainly wasn't anywhere near the tune of 10 lengths.

He never threw in a clunker.

As for those reports of him training poorly over the CD surface, I think that was entirely likely a result of his injury.

He also never ran anywhere outside of SA.

[CSC]

Dance Smartly vs. Black Tie Affair in the 91 Classic.

BTW I thought her BC Distaff was her second worst race of the year to the Prince of Wales at Fort Erie.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

at 8f, I don't think they'd have a chance of catching him.

Not a chance? Have you watched Easy Goer's 8f effort in the Gotham recently? I would argue that was a better race than KG ever ran at any distance.
At 8f, KG would have a shot, but at 9f+ I'd give him little or no chance.