7/10 (HOL): Hollywood Gold Cup & Triple Bend H. (G1's)

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

That is fair, but the race is posted on my site as the race of the week. However, I'm not here to advertise so you'll have to take my word for it. Awesome Gem has been consistently faster than Rail Trip.

As for the losing lengths, I think that is a dubious excuse at best given the race set up. Even so, knowing he was being overrated by many, I was pretty sure he would get an overconfident ride.

just looked at your figures.......how did you not crush that race?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Not sure what more he can do, the race was a total waste to judge after the fractions.

Isn't that what bettors do? We judge the race. The pace was a crawl. Somehow Rail trip was farther off than he should have been and uncovered and wide the entire way. He rode the horse like he couldn't lose and he did.

He still should have won, but that was not one of Bejarano's better rides IMO.

[Scav]

R3: $81.60
R4: $4.00
R5: $159.20

$63,331 was in the pool, and it only paid $5,500, so 11 tickets.

11 tickets had this thing, that seems high for the way the combo sorted out.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

R3: $81.60
R4: $4.00
R5: $159.20

$63,331 was in the pool, and it only paid $5,500, so 11 tickets.

11 tickets had this thing, that seems high for the way the combo sorted out.

parlay was $12k for a buck, and honestly the favorite in the middle was probably worth less than $4 in the pick-N pools. All-heavy fave-All is probably a common play in that situation.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

parlay was $12k for a buck, and honestly the favorite in the middle was probably worth less than $4 in the pick-N pools. All-heavy fave-All is probably a common play in that situation.

It would have been a $70 ticket, I can't see it...And that horse was a firster who obviously figured but I still think it is very light

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Isn't that what bettors do? We judge the race. The pace was a crawl. Somehow Rail trip was farther off than he should have been and uncovered and wide the entire way. He rode the horse like he couldn't lose and he did.

He still should have won, but that was not one of Bejarano's better rides IMO.

I think he should have been up near the lead but Bejarano can be kinda cute like that, that was a mistake.

After that though not sure if there was a chance for him to alter the strategy.

I don't think Rail Trip is a true 10f horse, the race did not change my view of that.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think he should have been up near the lead but Bejarano can be kinda cute like that, that was a mistake.

So he made a mistake. Good, we agree.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So he made a mistake. Good, we agree.

what did you think of the ride the place horse got in the last race at belmont today? if ya saw it

[10 pnt move up]

So speaking of rides, I thought that was a very crafty ride by Pedroza on EZ Gentlemen in the Triple Bend.

What a decision it has turned out for Zetcher to turn his horses to Baffert.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

what did you think of the ride the place horse got in the last race at belmont today? if ya saw it

Did you watch the head on?

I thought the horse was unlucky to lose. Should have won, but when 2 holes close I'm not sure what else could have been done.

[mnmark]

Rail trip actually had an ok trip and took the lead briefly when Awesome Gem had to duck to the rail and accelarate past Rail Trip. I think Awsome Gem would have still won the race had he got Rail Trips trip. He was just better today.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Scav

I would love for Drugs to get all crunk on Formulator and look at Ron Ellis 3rd/4th/5th off the layoff. He is a great layoff trainer, but when they get into 'campaigns' they seem to tail off.....
That being said, he probably ran the best today being so wide.

Considering the fact that he doesn't cheat, he's doing a great job. If it was a level field, his career would have been a lot different.

[miraja2]

The big thing this race pointed out to me is that the sport needs more Awesome Gems.

Some people say that having a horse win the Triple Crown would "save" or "help" horse racing. I say that's nonsense. All that would do is create a superstar horse. Well....the sport has a couple active "superstar" horses and their connections haven't done a damn thing with them in the last 8 months to make this a more interesting sport.

What the sport needs is a bunch of solid, graded-stakes caliber animals like Awesome Gem, where the connections ship all over, take on all comers and put together a career where the horse has faced Midnight Lute, Kip Deville, Curlin, Hard Spun, Global Hunter, Street Sense, Brother Derek, Zenyatta, Heatseeker, Rail Trip, etc.

He loses a lot more than he wins.....and that's okay. At least they aren't scared by shipping him, or by running on a surface or a distance that might not be his absolute best. Last year at this time he was running a game second to Global Hunter in a G1 turf race. Later in the year he bested 10 rivals to win a G2 dirt race. Yesterday he won a G1 race on synthetic. And to top it all off, yesterday was his 11th start in a little over 12 months! What a concept.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by CSC

Richard's Kid should be enough to put down the ridiculous hype that is Rail Trip.

i guess you were not here last year...according to some folks rail trip is a monster. once again he got trounced yesterday. hes a useful horse but hes not that good. i think curlin beat awesome gem by about 12 lengths.....lol...when he was only 4....yeah, rail trip is a world beater...lol...lol

[CSC]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i guess you were not here last year...according to some folks rail trip is a monster. once again he got trounced yesterday. hes a useful horse but hes not that good. i think curlin beat awesome gem by about 12 lengths.....lol...when he was only 4....yeah, rail trip is a world beater...lol...lol

He never demonstated he would be able to get 1 1/4 or carry 123-124 in his career, that should have been enough to scare some people off, but people always gravitate towards cute numbers, exactly the way they will gravitate towards Quality Road in the Classic. Atleast he ran faster than Zenyatta did last month LOL...I'll say it again, people who use these final raw time comparisions including supposedly some sharp players here should know better, or they should by now.

[Indian Charlie]

It's a good thing for Z fans she stayed in the barn yesterday.

Awesome Gem would have smoked her!

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by CSC

He never demonstated he would be able to get 1 1/4 or carry 123-124 in his career, that should have been enough to scare some people off, but people always gravitate towards cute numbers, exactly the way they will gravitate towards Quality Road in the Classic. Atleast he ran faster than Zenyatta did last month LOL...I'll say it again, people who use these final raw time comparisions including supposedly some sharp players here should know better, or they should by now.

Rail Trip won this same race last year at 10f. He has won at 121 and 122. In his career, he is now 3-1-1-1 at 10f. Are there any real conclusions to be drawn by this one race other than he isn't invincible?

No disrespect, but this thread was up well before the race yesterday and the only person I saw that posted Rail Trip getting beat was CMorioles.

To me, Rail Trip is still one of the best older horses in the country and if they ship out and he gets a shot on dirt, he will be very dangerous.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Scav

I would love for Drugs to get all crunk on Formulator and look at Ron Ellis 3rd/4th/5th off the layoff. He is a great layoff trainer, but when they get into 'campaigns' they seem to tail off.....

That being said, he probably ran the best today being so wide.

Rail Trip ran 8 times between Nov 7 2008 until July 11 2009 with no more than a 45 day break between starts. He brought him back for the Pacific classic obviously fearing a bounce from the big Gold Cup performance last year and then put him away for the year.

These days, thats a pretty busy schedule for a horse especially one that has finished out of the exacta one time in his career and that was in a blanket finish where he lost by a length.

Criticism of Ellis is justified in that he might be a little conservative with some of these horses. At the same time, he is more than just a layoff trainer as you suggest.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Rail Trip won this same race last year at 10f. He has won at 121 and 122. In his career, he is now 3-1-1-1 at 10f. Are there any real conclusions to be drawn by this one race other than he isn't invincible?

No disrespect, but this thread was up well before the race yesterday and the only person I saw that posted Rail Trip getting beat was CMorioles.

To me, Rail Trip is still one of the best older horses in the country and if they ship out and he gets a shot on dirt, he will be very dangerous.

I never liked him as much as others, I was one of his more vocal detractors here, it's not about tooting one's horn but I did say Richard's Kid should be enough to put down the ridiculous hype that is Rail Trip in this thread. Wrong horse right idea, maybe at Delmar.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by CSC

I never liked him as much as others, I was one of his more vocal detractors here, it's not about tooting one's horn but I did say Richard's Kid should be enough to put down the ridiculous hype that is Rail Trip in this thread. Wrong horse right idea, maybe at Delmar.

You did say that. I just think that too much is being made of it. He is a nice horse and I don't see anything out there that is much better.