#61
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He was probably a gelding all along. |
#62
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You could ask Empire Arab. She'd know.
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#63
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His turf debut was insanely huge. Winning by 15 lengths going 8.5f on firm turf is like winning by 30 lengths going 8.5f on dirt. You can get some big margins in turf races when the ground is yielding or soft... but rarely when firm. I think 15 lengths at 8.5f on turf is either 31 or 32 Beyer points. Considering the firm ground - and looking over the 9 other rivals - you'd have to project John Henry's figure to be 110 range in that turf claiming race. Maybe even as high as 112 or 113 ... an insane figure for a mid season 3yo in a claiming turf race. 6th place was beaten 23.5 lengths in a 10 horse field! |
#64
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Was there a trainer switch from FG to NY? Whoever was at the helm in Louisiana was really running the horse through the ringer despite the obvious drop off in form (note his exponentially-increasing losses to Cabrini Green late in the 2yo year). |
#65
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Most of them were trying turf for the first time. The 2nd place finisher Continental Cousin was 3rd by 6.5 lengths in a turf alw race at Hialeah to the strong turf champion Mac Diarmada a few months prior.
Adjusted for inflation - you'd think a 35K 3yo CLM turf route in '78 - would be equal to a 50K 3yo turf claimer now. Typically, such a race in June is won with a figure in the 78-to-80 range. Assuming the 2nd place finisher ran to the lower end of par ... 78 + 32 = 110. The 2nd place finisher was 2nd at the same class level in each of his next two starts. It was the only turf race of the day - so there isn't much else to work with. Obviously the grass moved up John Henry a ton. A 110 wins the Breeders Cup Mile some years... though, I'm certainly not a big figure guy when it comes to turf racing. You did have a couple trainer changes after the FG debacle ... but I just can't believe that the DRF could have John Henry down as a colt for the first 19 races of his career ... if he was a gelding all along from the start. Even two major circuits outside of Louisiana - Keeneland and NYRA - had him as a colt for one and two races there. |
#66
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__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there! |
#67
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The "hated the surface" stuff is often bogus and basically a trainers excuse when they can't find a better excuse.
It's valid when a horse tries a new form of surface - but something was obviously in play other than John Henry not liking the type of dirt on FG's track. His last race at FG and first at KEE seemed to be a very indentical type of performance. He seemed to turn around greatly in that time frame between April 11th and May 21st. Here's the video of his turf debut win: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDoabBz_JhM His jockey wasn't exactly riding him with great confidence. |
#68
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John Henry's first trainer, Phil Marino, probably was interested mainly in winning juvenile stakes at JD and EvD with John Henry and trained him accordingly. You had to have some early zip to win at 4-1/2 and 5fs at those bullrings. That was obviously not John Henry's style, so perhaps at some point he stopped responding to Marino's training regimen and his form really soured. Maybe he just needed a new trainer and a different surface. Steve Haskin wrote a fairly-detailed book about John Henry, so it might be worth it to ask him what he thinks turned John Henry around.
__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there! |
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