The Cops are coming after me...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

bam the mod puts the smack down...tko..lol

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

The fact is that he is a multiple winner and a graded stakes winner over the CD surface - where the BC obvious is, AND he shows a decisive win against stablemate Scat Daddy who came back and flattered him by winning a tough Grade 1 Champagne.....the public will give him a lot of credit on both accounts...

Early Odds Projections:

Circular Quay --- 9/5 - 2/1
Scat Daddy --- 5/2 - 7/2
Great Hunter --- 3/1 - 4-1

I think the Daddy goes favored. Always seems the Champagne holds more weight than the Keeneland race. Some of the West coast colts who beat GH will take some action as well. My guess is Daddy at 5/2, CQ at 3-1. We'll see what happens. I'm still a CQ fan. There should be a Pinnacle match-up with those two snout-to-snout.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Believe me, I've seen scenarios where four horses have fallen down and it allowed a $80 horse to win loose on the lead before, but who can predict that?...You wouldn't bet Pegasus Wind to win because you thought the better and faster horses than him (Scat Daddy and Nobiz Like Shobiz) were going to get in trouble and that he would have things his own way that easily ad that is why he would win, would you?

If I thought he was just 1-3 lengths worse than those other 2, then yes, I would bet him at 21-1. My point is that when a horse loses by less than a length, it doesn't take much of a change to make that horse the winner. I only need him (or horses like him) to win 6% of the time to show an extremely nice profit.

I'm sure you understand that capping isn't about picking the most likely winner of the race. If someone doesn't understand that any horse can win (and any horse can lose), then he/she has very little chance of being a successful capper.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If I thought he was just 1-3 lengths worse than those other 2, then yes, I would bet him at 21-1. My point is that when a horse loses by less than a length, it doesn't take much of a change to make that horse the winner. I only need him (or horses like him) to win 6% of the time to show an extremely nice profit.

I'm sure you understand that capping isn't about picking the most likely winner of the race. If someone doesn't understand that any horse can win (and any horse can lose), then he/she has very little chance of being a successful capper.

--Dunbar

IMO, only 6% of the time will he get such an easy trip to capitalize on....he got that ideal, lucky, beneficial trip to give him the BEST chance to win and he still got beat by better horses who had way worse journeys than him....

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

First of all, what was so lucky and beneficial about his trip. he is a frontrunner, they sort of make their own trips. It's not like there weren't other speeds in the race, they didn't go. And what was so bad about Scat's journey? You said way worse, so what exactly was so way worse about his trip? Nobiz, yeah he had a way worse trip, but I saw Scat as having a pretty clean trip.

Scat had to make a far wider run than NLS and Pegasus Wind, both......Pegasus Wind got away with an easy lead while hugging the rail and fractions of 24 and change and almost 48 seconds for his half mile, which is RIDICULOUSLY slow for good horses going around one turn. Yet, he still allowed horses with wider and less advantageous trips to run him over late....I'm not impressed when a horse is given a race and cannot capitalize to even run in the Exacta....

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Oh okay, someone had better tell Lukas that you aren't impressed. maybe he'll rethink entering in the Juvy.

God couldn't tell Lukas not to run his horses where they don't belong...that is a common practice from that barn....its all about winning the biggest races at ANY cost....

[Sightseek]

Anyone know what the plans for Tiz Wonderful are?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Anyone know what the plans for Tiz Wonderful are?

You know, I've been wondering the same thing...

He actually just put up a very nice work today in 100.80 for 5 furlongs at Keeneland...

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

You know, I've been wondering the same thing...

He posted a nice workout today at least!
Opps! You posted about it! LOL

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He posted a nice workout today at least!

Yeah, I saw that, and editted my post including that...

And you just editted your post...LOL Sightseek. That is funny. Great minds think alike. LOL!

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Just a guess, but I'm thinking he goes in either the Iroquis, or KY Jockey Club, or both.

Just to let everybody know, that barn thinks that NAPA CAT is their best baby....put him in your stable mail....he has been a little knicked-up but is back working well at KEE. He'll likely run back in a 1X at CD in the next month or so.....nice black colt and worth keeping an eye on....