Garret Gomez sucks

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If you look at most of his races, I think HS usually improves his position from the 3/8 pole to the wire. He's not some front runner who has a 5 length lead at the half-mile pole and then barely holds on.

You're probably right... I just wonder if it would have played out differently at a mile and a half.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What do you mean? Come-from-behinders with great late kicks get beat all the time when there is a slow pace. They often can't catch the front runners. The front runners don't necessarily need a huge lead either. If you have a good front runner and he has a 1-2 length lead at the top of the stretch and the pace is really slow, there is a good chance that the come-from-behinders will not be able to out-kick him.

If I'm riding Hard Spun and I can take the lead at the 3/8 pole or the quarter pole after running 6 furlongs in 1:16, I would think that I would be very hard to catch. Don't get me wrong, with a horse like HS, I'd rather have a 5 length lead in 1:14 than a 1-2 length lead in 1:16, but either way I would think that I would be hard to catch.

It comes down to the individual horses.
Take a horse like Hard Spun for example. He isn't really a sprinter. His strength is his high cruising speed and his pedigree. He can breeze faster than this others and for most of the race. When asked to go slower for the whole race he doesn't benefit any positional advantage from his cruising speed, he doesn't really save that much more energy, and he doesn't have turn of foot to kick home fast.

Now a slow pace would on the other hand help a sprinter type. It would generally hurt a closer. When everyone is within a few lengths and no one has momentum, it is all about position and turn of foot.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Perhaps hard to catch, but I highly doubt that a front runner would be 'sprinting' towards the end. If anything, he probably would have been hanging on for the win, don't you think? I liked Hard Spun to win, so I was a bit frustrated when I saw what was happening, but he looked pretty damn tired to me regardless. IF he was on the front end setting slow fractions like that, I still doubt he would have sped up very much at the end.

Even in the Derby, after setting incredibly fast fractions, HS out-kicked the entire field(with the exception of SS) from the 3/8 pole to the wire. HS had around a 2-3 length lead at the 3/8 pole and by the time they came to the 1/16th pole, he had a 5 length lead on everyone except for SS.

If you look at most of his other races, he puts the most daylight on the field in the stretch, not early in the race.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

It comes down to the individual horses.
Take a horse like Hard Spun for example. He isn't really a sprinter. His strength is his high cruising speed and his pedigree. He can breeze faster than this others and for most of the race. When asked to go slower for the whole race he doesn't benefit any positional advantage from his cruising speed, he doesn't really save that much more energy, and he doesn't have turn of foot to kick home fast.

Now a slow pace would on the other hand help a sprinter type. It would generally hurt a closer. When everyone is within a few lengths and no one has momentum, it is all about position and turn of foot.

You may be right. HS may in fact be the type of horse who runs his best race going a little faster and letting everyone else get tired while they chase him, like in the Derby.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You may be right. HS may in fact be the type of horse who runs his best race going a little faster and letting everyone else get tired while they chase him, like in the Derby.

I think Hard Spun was probably 3rd or 4th best in The Belmont. I can still understand Jones being dissapointed.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

You're probably right... I just wonder if it would have played out differently at a mile and a half.

A mile and a half might be too far for him. It's hard to say. I don't think he fired in the Belmont, so I wouldn't say conclusively that it's too far for him just based on that race. But I would guess that his best distance is probably somewhere between 1 1/16 and 1 1/4 miles.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

It comes down to the individual horses.
Take a horse like Hard Spun for example. He isn't really a sprinter. His strength is his high cruising speed and his pedigree. He can breeze faster than this others and for most of the race. When asked to go slower for the whole race he doesn't benefit any positional advantage from his cruising speed, he doesn't really save that much more energy, and he doesn't have turn of foot to kick home fast.

Now a slow pace would on the other hand help a sprinter type. It would generally hurt a closer. When everyone is within a few lengths and no one has momentum, it is all about position and turn of foot.

In fact I believe he uses more energy... his stride changes to a less efficient slower form. Plus many of these high cruising types also fight the jock when asked to hold back.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

A mile and a half might be too far for him. It's hard to say. I don't think he fired in the Belmont, so I wouldn't say conclusively that it's too far for him just based on that race. But I would guess that his best distance is probably somewhere between 1 1/16 and 1 1/4 miles.

I can agree with that.
It will be interesting to follow this guy. I'd like to see him do well. Ramon Dominguez is a jockey that could fit a horse like this, not sure what the options are or if Pino has any chances of returning.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ELA

Found the source -- none other than the NY Post . . .

Eric

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06112007...y_kerrison.htm


JONES GIVES JOCK GOMEZ 'HARD' TIME
By RAY KERRISON

June 11, 2007 -- COWBOY Larry Jones came out with both barrels blazing yesterday against the "nonsensical" ride top jockey Garrett Gomez gave his horse Hard Spun in the Belmont Stakes.
As he grazed his Triple Crown warrior outside the barn, Jones said up front, "This is probably not a good time to ask me a lot of questions about the Belmont."

Then, for the next 15 minutes he fumed, "I'm really starting to wonder whether any jockey has a clock in his head anymore. You could tell the old time jocks how fast to go and if they were off even a fifth of-a-second, they'd be upset with themselves. I really don't know whether these (modern) jocks have a clue as to how fast they're going."

What set Jones off was the incomprehensible tactical decision by Gomez to wrangle a free-running horse like Hard Spun back behind two leaders, C P West and Slew's Tizzy, who were running one of the slowest-run Belmonts in history.

You have to go all the way back to 1969 to find a Belmont run in such snail fractions as Saturday's crawl. That year, Arts and Letters won after going 6f in 1.16.1 and the mile in 1.40.1 on a fast track. Saturday, C P West led the field through six furlongs in 1.15.3 and the mile in 1.40.2 on a fast track.

Larry Jones could not believe his eyes as he saw the fractions posted on the infield board and saw his horse being strangled back in third place behind the leaders. What made him even madder was the memory that Hard Spun helped lose the Preakness for the exact opposite reason - he was burning the track with blistering fractions, flying through six furlongs in 1.09 and change.

Just about everybody, including Jones, expected Hard Spun to be the Belmont pacemaker.

"I tried to explain to Gomez to slow the pace down, but I told him that if this horse could get the 6f. in 1.13 or 1.14, we'd be home free," Jones said. "I never dreamed we would be going in nearly 1.16 and not be on the lead."

As this was going on, Jones complained, "Gomez kept reaching to get a bigger hold" on Hard Spun. He said after the start, Gomez dropped Hard Spun to the rail, then on the turn, swung him out wide, a tactic that clearly mystified Jones.

The race chart backs Jones to the hilt. It reads, "Hard Spun raced erratically while fighting his rider and tucking in, drifted out on the first turn, stalked the leaders five wide along the backstretch."

Five wide! "I don't know what we were doing," Jones said. "Before we got to the half-mile pole I told Cindy (his wife) 'We got no shot.' "

He said he would study the replay of the race later this week "to see if I can make any sense out of what happened." He added, "Right now a whole lot of things don't make sense. It was not a good race and I don't think Mr. Porter (Hard Spun's owner) was any happier."

The irony of Jones's problems is that he fired jockey Mario Pino off Hard Spun for what he deemed an unsatisfactory ride in the Preakness. Everyone thought he made a smart move replacing Pino with Gomez for the Belmont.

Complicating the situation is that Gomez last week tried to get a release from his commitment to ride Hard Spun so he could take the mount on the eventual Belmont winner Rags to Riches.

A few days before the race, I asked Jones whether he was compromised by forcing a reluctant jockey to ride his horse. "Oh, no," Jones said emphatically. "Garrett is a professional and he will give the horse his best ride."

But Jones is not the only Belmont participant bewildered by its unfolding. Nick Zito, who trains C P West, was startled to see his horse leading the parade around the track.

"We thought Hard Spun was going to be on the lead," he said yesterday. "We figured he would go the 6f in 1.12 and we'd be sitting next to him, as in the Preakness. But it didn't work out that way."

Zito did not blame his jockey Edgar Prado for putting C P West on the lead. "I thought we would have a great trip, tucking in behind Hard Spun, but when no one wanted the lead, Edgar took it."

"I didn't want the lead, but my horse came out well and he took it," Prado said. "The pace was slow but it didn't help me. Not many horses want to go a mile and a half. Those two horses (Rags to Riches and Curlin) went by me so fast I couldn't believe it."

The pace of the Belmont and the riding strategy was the buzz of the backstretch yesterday, but the stewards, apparently, found no reason to ask any questions.

I personally would never force a jockey to ride my horse. Why ride a guy who doesn't want the mount? There are plenty of good jockeys out there. If my jockey asked to be released from his commitment to ride my horse, I would release him.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

After listening to Gary Steven's commentary on Thursday, I was convinced that Gomez would rate the horse. Stevens was saying that HS is kind of a head-strong horse and after seeing what happened in the Preaknesss and not wanting that to happen again, that Gomez would come out of the gate with a hold on the horse. The reason being that Gomez did not know whether anyone else would be gunning or not. If someone else did gun and Gomez came out of the gate asking the horse, then it would be too late to take back because HS is quite head-strong. So I think that GG made the decision to take back from the start. Once he saw how slow they were going, he could have let the horse take the lead, but I think that Gomez was happy that the horse was rating kindly and he thought that he could go by the two horses on the lead at any time. He knew it was a long race and he knew that the horses to beat were behind him, so he decided to sit tight.

Was it a mistake in hindsight? I would probably say yes. With a horse as fast as HS, if I knew I could get an easy lead in :49 3/5 or so, I would much rather do that than be sitting behind horses going :50. On the other hand, we don't know if those other two horses would have left GG alone on the lead in :49 3/5 if GG would have gone to the lead.

I'm sure that if GG knew that the other horses would have given him an easy lead in slow fractions, he would have been happy to take it.

Anyway, it was a tricky situation due to the fact that HS is head-strong. I don't think the ride cost the horse anything. I think he would have probably run 4th either way. I think that GG is the best rider in the country and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt due to the totality of the circumstances. I can certainly see why people would question the ride.

Rupert, after having a few days to mull this over, I agree with most that the best this horse could have done was third in this race, no matter what trip he may have gotten. He was a spent horse coming in. I guess I am more upset at myself for going against my first instinct and playing him.
However, the strategy that you speak of comes from Gomez, and went directly against the instructions from Larry Jones. Add to that the fact that he swung 5 wide for absolutely no reason going into the first turn, and stayed out there the rest of the race, the ride Gomez gave this horse was abysmal, and GG was the only one who thought he was "money" at the 3/8ths pole.
My final word on the subject is, of course Garrett Gomez is a quality rider, but on Saturday, he sucked.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Honestly, you all are giving WAY too much credit to riders for having an effect on the outcome of races. I suggest spending time handicapping intelligently and forgetting about jockeys and the net results will be much better for you at the windows.

Now that's the Andy we know and love! You really don't think Gomez hurt Hard Spun's chances? It's pretty evident that the horse can cruise at a high rate of speed, Derby fractions of 22 4/5, 46 1/5, 111 and 137 under no urging, and he still ran his last quarter quicker than the previous. The 3 horses that tried to run with him for the 1st half mile in the Derby finished 17th, 19th and 20th. So if Hard Spun is allowed to "cruise" on his own for the opening 3/4's of a mile on Saturday, how far in front is he after 6f? How are they going to catch him rallying from 10 lengths plus back when he hasn't even taken a deep breath to that point?

Do you believe Larry Jones when he says he told Gomez to go to the lead?

He had the rail wide open going into that first turn and could have had it easily, but decided he'd rather be 5 wide, choking the life out of his animal in order to pin Curlin down on the rail.

I know this is all Monday morning QBing, as I for one thought what Pino did in the Preakness was inexcusable and was all for the change. But unfortunately Go-Go's strength is with off the pace runners, not front end horses (my opinion of course). I guess Jones was in a tough spot since Gomez was probably the best available, just not for that horse.

Andy, I know you aren't into the whole jockey thing but do you have an opinion on who may have been a better fit for Hard Spun, besides Pino and I guess Johnny V, who was probably still waiting on Pletcher to decide on CQ?

[blackthroatedwind]

It isn't the ride I would have suggested, as I suppose if you are trying to get a horse to do something he basically can't, you should accentuate his strengths as much as possible. Would he have had a better chance if he had been sent to the lead? Maybe....but probably not. The make-up of the race would have changed dramatically and horses like Curlin and Rags to Riches, who seem perfectly comfortable sitting a bit off a contentious pace, may well have had trips more to their liking than sitting right on a dawdling pace. People act as though the pace scenerio affected only one horse in this race, Hard Spun, when in fact it theoretically changed the entire make-up of the race. But, being that the results were easily expectable ( is that a word? ), ultimately I feel it was an honestly run race. Hard Spun is both distance challenged ( something evident in the previous triple crown races ) and not that good ( something evidenced his entire career ).

Personally I don't think any of Hard Spun's races have been affected by his rider ( though I guess the Southwest was a mediocre passive ride but he was both victimized by post and probably mediocre instructions due to an irrational evaluation of the horse's actual talent ). He's finished about where he should have every time he's run. Do I think it's an odd choice to switch to a guy like Gomez if you want to dominate a race on the front end? No....he had no trouble making the lead with Dream Rush. He's a rider, he can ride a horse in many ways, and I don't believe the connections that he ignored their instructions, just as I don't believe the lunacy of people that think there were other games being played in the race. These guys simply aint that smart.

What everyone, his connections and people evaluating the race, needs to really do is get a more realistic opinion of Hard Spun.

[slotdirt]

Am I the only one who hopes Hard Spun comes back in the Haskell? Am I also the only who is naive enough to believe Hard Spun will ever race again, period?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Am I the only one who hopes Hard Spun comes back in the Haskell? Am I also the only who is naive enough to believe Hard Spun will ever race again, period?

Nah, I'm with you, Slot. I think he'll run again. I love this colt. I guess I need to be more realistic about him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

You stated what you stated and I disagreed. Is there a crime in that, Andy?

If there isn't...there should be.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If there isn't...there should be.

LOL

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't know if anyone has brought this point up yet....but it was Gomez who, in last years Belmont, carved out the 23 flat and 47 1/5 fractions aboard post time favorite Bob And John.

The horses racing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th after a half mile in last years running....all would be beaten 20 or more lengths by the mighty last-to-first winner Jazil....who is still looking to get through his N2X allowance condition.

One of those four quiters came back to win the Ohio Derby next out, and two others had fairly nice recent performances (Bob and John and High Finance)

Perhaps Gomez had regrets about getting burned up on the lead in this race last year, and that was on his mind this year--however, once he saw no one else wanted the lead.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cardus

What is your basis for not believing HS' connections that Gomez ignored Jones' pre-race instructions?

It just seems considering all the questionable and unfair stuff I have heard come out of that camp that I think it is at least fair to take anything they say with a grain of salt.

Look at it this way.......is it unreasonable to assume any instructions went something like this " obviously our best chances would be loafing along on the lead, but with potential other speed in the race we don't want to get caught up in a speed duel, so if another horse wants the front, and we know Hard Spun can stalk, feel free to let them go " but then when others went, but slowly, the connections somehow decided that those instructions should have included " but go if they are really backing it down? "

[SentToStud]

or,
"The last guy moved too f'ing early. Don't make the same f'ing mistake."

I'm just relieved Juan Leyva emerged from this unscathed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

or,
"The last guy moved too f'ing early. Don't make the same f'ing mistake."

I'm just relieved Juan Leyva emerged from this unscathed.

MUCH more likely.

And your boy was probably still stinging from his Belmont debut on Friday.