Final Verdict ... Fog Is A Fraud

[Phalaris1913]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

Uh-huh ... uh-huh ... well ... if you're the "real" Phalaris ...

... please state your sex ... and provide the initials of the publication you once were associated with.

By these shall we know ye.

Yeah, I know ... I'm the girl who has to go and choose the name of a prominent stallion as my pen name.

And that isn't "once was" ... I still have a very important association with said publication.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Fraud is strong, but he's never beat older horses unless you want to include the crippled Kelly's Landing in the mix.

LITF has actually beaten older horses three different times. He's faced older horses 6 times and he's won 3 out of 6. I don't know how you can knock Kelly's Landing. He's run some huge races the last year. He broke the track record at Churchill last year and I believe he broke the track record at Gulfstream also this year. He ran 1:08 2/5 at Gulfstream this year. Kelly's Landing looks a lot sounder physically than most sprinters. Practically all of the sprinters have problems. Silver Train has problems. All the sprinters do.

Originally Posted by Phalaris1913

Yeah, I know ... I'm the girl who has to go and choose the name of a prominent stallion as my pen name.

And that isn't "once was" ... I still have a very important association with said publication.

So ... I guess it is you after all ... even though you didn't provide the initials ... which I'll scramble as RMA ... so no one can possibly guess which publication we're referring to.

Welcome ... welcome ... and try to come around very frequently.

Your erudite presence is much desired ... and much in need.

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

You must also remember it was the media hyping Fog last year more than forum members.

This horse is no fraud - every horse has its on/off days.

1. I wasn't referring to the savvy members of this forum ... but to the more hysterical members of "another" forum.

2. But why do Lost In The Fog's "off" days always occur when he faces good horses ... and never occur when he faces palookas? It seems that the quarter cracks and detention barns only surface as factors ... when the opposition is tough.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

Ummm, Rupe ... you kind of missed the point. Phalaris wasn't saying that Lost In The Fog should run from off the pace ... but that he can't stay with the pace when he's up against quality sprinters.

And because he can't stay with the pace ... he can't win ... because he has no ability to come from off the pace.

Do you see the distinction? Good ... I'm glad you do.

That is nonsense that he can't stay with the pace with good sprinters. Even in the BC sprint, he was within a length of the lead and then he actually took the lead at the top of the the stretch. His problem is certainly not a lack of early speed.
In addition, he has won from off the pace. I can't belive the nonsense I read here. I remember a similar debate about Tiger Woods. Someone said that he can't win when he doesn't have the lead going into the final round. When evidence was presented that he's won tons of times when he didn't have the lead going into the final round, then the poster said that Tiger doesn't win majors when he doesn't have the lead. That is absurd and it is absurd with horses too. If a horse has shown he can rate, then he can rate. It's that simple. If you can rate against mediocre horses, you can rate against good horses. LITF has shown he can rate.
LITF obviously did not fire yesterday. He was even behind Kelly's Landing in the early going yesterday. What does that tell you? LITF normally has much more early speed than Kelly's Landing. KL is not even a speed horse. LITF was 4 lengths ahead of KL in the early part of their last race.
I can't guarantee you that LITF would have won yesterday if he would have fired. However, I can certainly guarantee you that he would have at least showed some speed and been well ahead of KL in the early going. If anyone of you honestly think that LITF ran his best yesterday, then I give up.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is nonsense that he can't stay with the pace with good sprinters. Even in the BC sprint, he was within a length of the lead and then he actually took the lead at the top of the the stretch. His problem is certainly not a lack of early speed.

I didn't say that I agreed with Phalaris ... I was just explaining what she meant ... but ...

... in fact I do agree with her ... Lost In The Fog isn't capable of making an easy lead ... or any kind of early lead ... against quality sprinters.

His extremely brief lead in the BC Sprint came after 4.5f ... and was the result of an overconfident move which left him empty in the final eighth.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I can't guarantee you that LITF would have won yesterday if he would have fired. If anyone of you honestly think that LITF ran his best yesterday, then I give up.

That's the exact tune that was played after the BC Sprint ... a real golden oldie by now.

He ran the same race yesterday as he always has ... which is good enough to win against palookas ... but not good enough to win against decent quality sprinters ... much less really good sprinters.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

That's the exact tune that was played after the BC Sprint ... a real golden oldie by now.

He ran the same race yesterday as he always has ... which is good enough to win against palookas ... but not good enough to win against decent quality sprinters ... much less really good sprinters.

AS per usual, you are wrong again. Fraud Brooklynite.

Jeff Sanchez, who rode the winner said when he was running next to LITF said it was clear the horse was just spinning and not taking to the track. Pleanty of rumors at Calder Saturday that the horse wasn't 100% for the race. Factors were 1. A track lots of horses didn't like. 2. Physical questions. 3. Tons of weight. 4. He may well not be as good as last year.

When he's giving 8 lbs to another Grade 1 winner (Pomeroy) and you come on here and call the horse a fraud when you know NOTHIING about the race shows you are still a fool.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

That's the exact tune that was played after the BC Sprint ... a real golden oldie by now.

He ran the same race yesterday as he always has ... which is good enough to win against palookas ... but not good enough to win against decent quality sprinters ... much less really good sprinters.

What are you talking about? LITF was behind Kelly's Landing in the early going yesterday. LITF has much more early speed than KL. KL is not a speed horse. LITF was 4 length ahead of KL in the early going in their previous race. LITF obviously did not fire yesterday. He didn't even show any early speed.
In the BC Sprint, I personally don't think that LITF fired. However, you could at leat make a case that he fired. He showed some speed and he got tired. You could at least make a halfway credible argument that he fired but just wasn't good enough. In yesterday's race, nobody in their right mind could think the horse fired. He didn't even show any early speed yesterday. He was behind KL in the early going. That was not the same race that LITF usually runs. He always shows early speed. Yesterday was the first time ever that he showed no speed. You can't argue that he showed no speed because the horses were too fast because we know that LITF is normally much faster than KL in the early going.

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

That's the exact tune that was played after the BC Sprint ... a real golden oldie by now.

He ran the same race yesterday as he always has ... which is good enough to win against palookas ... but not good enough to win against decent quality sprinters ... much less really good sprinters.

Thats just nuts. You use two races and throw the horse out. Thats just stupid. Again, use of what you want to see to prove a point. Is there any race that the horse has actually run in that was impressive? Just one?
The horse was too damn good to scrap so soon imo.

Originally Posted by pgardn

Is there any race that the horse has actually run in that was impressive? Just one?

No ... in fact ... that's why I predicted that he would crash in the BC Sprint ... even though he was undefeated going in.

Even when running against stiffs ... he never really closed out a race with a flourish. The last furlong has always been a problem for him. Poor opposition masked it ... but stronger opposition exposed it.

While he benefited from G3 ... or worse ... opposition in G1 3YO races ... this horse is simply not a G1-quality sprinter in open company.

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

No ... in fact ... that's why I predicted that he would crash in the BC Sprint ... even though he was undefeated going in.

Even when running against stiffs ... he never really closed out a race with a flourish. The last furlong has always been a problem for him. Poor opposition masked it ... but stronger opposition exposed it.

While he benefited from G3 ... or worse ... opposition in G1 3YO races ... this horse is simply not a G1-quality sprinter in open company.

Oh you really went out on a limb. The BC sprint is historically a great race to go against the favorite. Fewer favorites have won this race than any other BC race. Great Call. Did you have Cajun Beat?

Originally Posted by pgardn

Oh you really went out on a limb. The BC sprint is historically a great race to go against the favorite. Fewer favorites have won this race than any other BC race. Great Call. Did you have Cajun Beat?

That has to be one of the greatest non-sequitors ever created.

The record shows that Lost In The Fog can't compete against open G1/G2-quality company. He's attempted it twice ... and finished way up the track both times.

The checkered history of Breeder's Cup races is totally irrelevant to those facts.

[prudery]

The historical demises of the Breeder's Cup Sprint favorites would have all the relevance in the world if they were the essence of Bold Brooklynite's argument . As per the gaggle of hyperventilating LITF goo-goos he describes, I have cruised 4-5 different racing forums for a while, and never have seen this horse compared to Dr. Fager, nor have I seen quite the cannonization he describes . But then his posts wouldn't be so dramatic, would they ? Before the BC, the horse was perfect, and had won in NY as well . He proved the most consistent sprinter and was deserving of the Eclipse last year . Saratoga County, IMO, was perhaps the best horse,but did not live to prove it. The LITF that ran in the BC unfortunately washed out pre-race, a critical factor to his detractors . Prominent early, he definitely chucked it when it counted . I agree with much of Phalaris' observations of him as a sprinter . I agree that more was expected of him than he ultimately delivered . It is hard not to dream when presented with ten perfect runs . I was a believer, though I always breathed normally . This year's model LITF is different . Physical issues have been admitted . What has not been discussed is that the horse, never pleasant tempered, has become rough and studdish . Far better animals than he have been compromised by "nads" . Count Fleet and Fair Play both lost races for this reason . Fair Play in fact, proved worthless at four because his mind was elsewhere . Fact, not excuses . LITF may run his race consistently and get beaten for whatever reason, but this last race was atypical . NO RESPONSE, NO SPEED . The con arguments would have far more merit had he gotten the lead, battled it out, lost it to a " better " horse, then finished up the track . He was a no show . To the poster who said all racehorses are frauds, I would be happier if the word fraud was replaced by fallable or not machines--otherwise the thinking is sound .

[Phalaris1913]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What are you talking about? LITF was behind Kelly's Landing in the early going yesterday. LITF has much more early speed than KL. KL is not a speed horse. LITF was 4 length ahead of KL in the early going in their previous race. LITF obviously did not fire yesterday. He didn't even show any early speed.

If you get outrun, it doesn't matter if you fire or not - you're not getting to the front. There's this myth that just because a horse likes to run on or near the front that he's going to get there if he wants, unless something's amiss. That's not true. Some early speed horses are quicker out of the gate. Trying to make a slower speed horse keep pace with a faster one has one likely outcome: the slower one will get beaten, and the faster he has to go than he would be comfortable with, the worse he's going to run every remaining step of the way. LITF is simply not all that fast out of the gate and thus far, he has gotten outrun whenever he meets decent horses.

I am not a Calder expert, but I know it tends to be a slowish track so the Smile fractions of 21 3/5 and 44 1/5 are probably even hotter than they would be at many tracks. Last year, LITF got an easy lead through 22 2/5 and 45 2/5 in the Carry Back and won for fun. They went a lot faster than that in the Smile and he simply couldn't cope. In fact, he ran his opening quarter about as fast as he did in the Carry Back last year, but that put him midpack against open company rather than winging on the lead against 3YOs, which is pretty much his story in a nutshell. This horse has yet to win a race against open company in which something else threw a sub-22-second opening quarter at him.

Some people seem to think that early pace is trivial, but actually, it's critically important, particularly in the case of forwardly placed sprinters. The difference between a comfortable 22-and-change quarter on a neutral track vs. a 21-and-change quarter on the same track is potentially monumental. Given that tracks vary from one race to the next, never mind between tracks, LITF has shown that when able to get an easy lead, or with only one weak horse in front of him, through 22/44-45 fractions, he's strong middle and late. That happened in the races against the nonentities in the age-restricted races that LITF shipped all over creation to run in last year. He also had no trouble with the horses that showed up for the Bay Meadows race against older. (Considering that it was scheduled for the same date as the Vosburgh and within a week of the Ancient Title and announced about three weeks in advance, you can imagine that it didn't exactly draw the best sprinters in the land.) By the way, LITF is two for five in open-age races.

Regarding Kelly's Landing, you might want to actually check the horse's lines before you speak. KL is not exactly a speed demon, but he is not without speed. Actually, he prepped for the Aristides in a CD allowance where he was battling on the lead in 21 3/5 and 44 1/5, which is faster than anything LITF has successfully handled outside of northern California and Turf Paradise. KL was two and a half lengths behind LITF after the opening quarter of the Aristides and whittled that down to a length after a half, a margin that LITF was unable to extend greatly thereafter despite a perfect scenario. To put that in perspective, KL is a G3 winner who has been unplaced in his graded stakes sprints starts away from CD.

I learned a long time ago that it's impossible to budge an opinion, so I'm not going to waste any more time researching this topic this time around. It needs to be said, however. There are those of us who feel, and have felt for some time, that LITF is overrated and we have some justification to do so.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Phalaris1913

If you get outrun, it doesn't matter if you fire or not - you're not getting to the front. There's this myth that just because a horse likes to run on or near the front that he's going to get there if he wants, unless something's amiss. That's not true. Some early speed horses are quicker out of the gate. Trying to make a slower speed horse keep pace with a faster one has one likely outcome: the slower one will get beaten, and the faster he has to go than he would be comfortable with, the worse he's going to run every remaining step of the way. LITF is simply not all that fast out of the gate and thus far, he has gotten outrun whenever he meets decent horses.

I am not a Calder expert, but I know it tends to be a slowish track so the Smile fractions of 21 3/5 and 44 1/5 are probably even hotter than they would be at many tracks. Last year, LITF got an easy lead through 22 2/5 and 45 2/5 in the Carry Back and won for fun. They went a lot faster than that in the Smile and he simply couldn't cope. In fact, he ran his opening quarter about as fast as he did in the Carry Back last year, but that put him midpack against open company rather than winging on the lead against 3YOs, which is pretty much his story in a nutshell. This horse has yet to win a race against open company in which something else threw a sub-22-second opening quarter at him.

Some people seem to think that early pace is trivial, but actually, it's critically important, particularly in the case of forwardly placed sprinters. The difference between a comfortable 22-and-change quarter on a neutral track vs. a 21-and-change quarter on the same track is potentially monumental. Given that tracks vary from one race to the next, never mind between tracks, LITF has shown that when able to get an easy lead, or with only one weak horse in front of him, through 22/44-45 fractions, he's strong middle and late. That happened in the races against the nonentities in the age-restricted races that LITF shipped all over creation to run in last year. He also had no trouble with the horses that showed up for the Bay Meadows race against older. (Considering that it was scheduled for the same date as the Vosburgh and within a week of the Ancient Title and announced about three weeks in advance, you can imagine that it didn't exactly draw the best sprinters in the land.) By the way, LITF is two for five in open-age races.

Regarding Kelly's Landing, you might want to actually check the horse's lines before you speak. KL is not exactly a speed demon, but he is not without speed. Actually, he prepped for the Aristides in a CD allowance where he was battling on the lead in 21 3/5 and 44 1/5, which is faster than anything LITF has successfully handled outside of northern California and Turf Paradise. KL was two and a half lengths behind LITF after the opening quarter of the Aristides and whittled that down to a length after a half, a margin that LITF was unable to extend greatly thereafter despite a perfect scenario. To put that in perspective, KL is a G3 winner who has been unplaced in his graded stakes sprints starts away from CD.

I learned a long time ago that it's impossible to budge an opinion, so I'm not going to waste any more time researching this topic this time around. It needs to be said, however. There are those of us who feel, and have felt for some time, that LITF is overrated and we have some justification to do so.

You obviously do not have Kelly's Landing's past performances in front of you. When I made my post, I did have his past performances in front of me and they are in front of me right now. KL was 4 lengths behind LITF after a quarter mile in the Aristides. LITF has much more early speed than KL. Your contention that LITF does not have that much early speed is absurd. LITF has as much early speed as practically any horse in the country. He's gone :43 1/5. The reason that he went the half in :45 in some of his races was because that was all he needed to do to get the lead in those races. He can basically go as fast as he wants. If they go :43 3/5, he'll be either on the lead or no further back than a length.
With regard to your contention that he's overrated, he could be slightly overrated. It's possible. But that's not really the issue. The issue is whether you're opinion is being based on races that he didn't fire. He certainly didn't fire on Saturday. There was obviously something bothering him and that was why he was behind a horse early who he is normally 4 lengths in front of. And what makes you think that he ran his best in the BC Sprint? Horses are not machines. You can't ship a horse back and forth all across the country and expect them to keep firing every time. He had too tough of a campaign last year and it finally caught up to him. You can't judge a horse off one or two races. Why would you judge him off one or two bad races but not judge other horses the same way? How many bad races has Taste of Paradise run? He almsot won the BC Sprint but if you look at his Form he has lost a ton of races to mediocre horses. Look at Silver Train. Look at all of his bad races. He ran 3rd to Tani Maru in a restricted stakes race. A couple races later, he got beat by Santana Springs and Social Probabtion in the Amsterdam. He lost to Spooky Mulder this year.
People criticize LITF because he mainly faced 3 year olds last year. At least he was facing the best 3 year old sprinters. Silver Train faced nothing but 3 year olds last year and he wasn't even facing good 3 year olds. He was losing allowance races against 3 year olds. Silver Train ran 6 times last year before the BC Sprint. He ran against 3 year olds in five of those six races. The only time he faced older horses was in a non-winners other than allowance race. So Silver Train was runing against far worse 3 year olds than LITF and he was losing. How do you explain that? If you look at Silver's Train's past performances last year leading up to the BC Sprint, you can't even compare his races to LITF's races. Silver Train was facing bad 3 year olds and was losing.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Phalaris1913

I learned a long time ago that it's impossible to budge an opinion, so I'm not going to waste any more time researching this topic this time around. It needs to be said, however. There are those of us who feel, and have felt for some time, that LITF is overrated and we have some justification to do so.

It sure is hard. If you tell people he is over-rated you get accused of bashing the horse when all you're trying to do is explain reality. And that is that LITF is way over-rated. He continues to go off at ridiculously low odds compared to his chances of winning. Before the Breeders Cup I studied all his replays and I noticed one thing they had in common, he was able to comfortably dictate the pace and did not have any credible threats. His problem is that in open company against top sprinters he cannot get the lead, which is why I knew he was doomed on Saturday. Horses like Joey P, Gold Storm, etc, have real high speeds to the 1/4 and 1/2, there is no way LITF can run out on that pace and win. Also he does not seem to have a closing kick dimension to him like Nightmare Affair. LITF has a very limited kick. He simply has no answer for top sprinters. He can cruise at a pretty high rate of speed but thats not going to get the job done against top sprinters who usually have to have a sustained accelaration burst at some point in the race.

I think that people that use Bris pace and speed numbers maybe have an advantage in picking this up. Before Saturday there were two times that LITF ran very fast pace numbers to the 1/4 and both of those times he paid for it in the late pace ending up flat, the BC Sprint and his first race of this year against Carthage. In the Aristides he was able to run a 1/4 pace that was comfortable and the result was about as good as it gets for him. In the opening part of the Smile LITF got out of the gate preety good and for a short time he was in the mix. But then the real speedballs kicked it in and I believe Baze knew he had to take back a little. He tried to make a run going into the turn but that's not his game.

There a mass hysteria with this horse and people keep citing his record, 11 wins in 14 starts, several G1's , blah, blah, blah. Ok that was a great 3YO season against a suspect group, but where does that put him now. Forget about the past, he is 1 win in four starts against real competition. They will have to pick their spots for him if they keep racing him, he can win lesser sprints from time to time. However I think they know he does not belong on the path to the BC sprint. With all that said I believe, like others have suggested, that rather than further diminish his reputation that he will be retired.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It sure is hard. If you tell people he is over-rated you get accused of bashing the horse when all you're trying to do is explain reality. And that is that LITF is way over-rated. He continues to go off at ridiculously low odds compared to his chances of winning. Before the Breeders Cup I studied all his replays and I noticed one thing they had in common, he was able to comfortably dictate the pace and did not have any credible threats. His problem is that in open company against top sprinters he cannot get the lead, which is why I knew he was doomed on Saturday. Horses like Joey P, Gold Storm, etc, have real high speeds to the 1/4 and 1/2, there is no way LITF can run out on that pace and win. Also he does not seem to have a closing kick dimension to him like Nightmare Affair. LITF has a very limited kick. He simply has no answer for top sprinters. He can cruise at a pretty high rate of speed but thats not going to get the job done against top sprinters who usually have to have a sustained accelaration burst at some point in the race.

I think that people that use Bris pace and speed numbers maybe have an advantage in picking this up. Before Saturday there were two times that LITF ran very fast pace numbers to the 1/4 and both of those times he paid for it in the late pace ending up flat, the BC Sprint and his first race of this year against Carthage. In the Aristides he was able to run a 1/4 pace that was comfortable and the result was about as good as it gets for him. In the opening part of the Smile LITF got out of the gate preety good and for a short time he was in the mix. But then the real speedballs kicked it in and I believe Baze knew he had to take back a little. He tried to make a run going into the turn but that's not his game.

There a mass hysteria with this horse and people keep citing his record, 11 wins in 14 starts, several G1's , blah, blah, blah. Ok that was a great 3YO season against a suspect group, but where does that put him now. Forget about the past, he is 1 win in four starts against real competition. They will have to pick their spots for him if they keep racing him, he can win lesser sprints from time to time. However I think they know he does not belong on the path to the BC sprint. With all that said I believe, like others have suggested, that rather than further diminish his reputation that he will be retired.

If what you are saying is true, then LITF must be one of the best horses off all time. Look at all the other sprinters out there. Look at how spotty their record are. They have run several good races and several bad races. Some days they fire and some day they don't. But according to you, LITF is different. He fires every single time. He always runs the same. The only reason that he doesn't always finish in the same position is because sometimes he runs in tougher spots. The only reason he got beat on Saturday and in the BC Sprint was because those races were tough and there was too much speed but he actually ran his best on those days. If that's the case, then LITF must be one of the greatest horses ever. He ships all over the place, he runs a lot, and he almost always runs in graded stakes races, but most importantly he fires every time. He always runs his best. That's pretty amazing. He must be one of the greatest horses ever then. If you are correct then LITF is the only horse I know of that fires every time.
What you're saying is obviously absurd. No horse runs the same every time, not even LITF. All of these horses have physical problems and based on the way they are feeling, somedays they fire and other days they don't. They don't run their best every time. I know you think that LITF is a machine and runs his best every time but you are wrong.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If what you are saying is true, then LITF must be one of the best horses off all time. Look at all the other sprinters out there. Look at how spotty their record are. They have run several good races and several bad races. Some days they fire and some day they don't. But according to you, LITF is different. He fires every single time. He always runs the same. The only reason that he doesn't always finish in the same position is because sometimes he runs in tougher spots. The only reason he got beat on Saturday and in the BC Sprint was because those races were tough and there was too much speed but he actually ran his best on those days. If that's the case, then LITF must be one of the greatest horses ever. He ships all over the place, he runs a lot, and he almost always runs in graded stakes races, but most importantly he fires every time. He always runs his best. That's pretty amazing. He must be one of the greatest horses ever then. If you are correct then LITF is the only horse I know of that fires every time.
What you're saying is obviously absurd. No horse runs the same every time, not even LITF. All of these horses have physical problems and based on the way they are feeling, somedays they fire and other days they don't. They don't run their best every time. I know you think that LITF is a machine and runs his best every time but you are wrong.

Once again you're missing the point, Rupe. What Jim ... and several others have said ... is that Lost In The Fog isn't capable of winning against G1/G2-quality open sprinters ... whether he runs his best race or not ... which I guess you'd call "firing."

When a horse finishes towards the back of the field ... ten or more lengths behind in a 6f race ... it doesn't really matter if he ran his best race or not ... there's no way he was going to win.

Was Lost In The Fog at his very best for both the BC Sprint and Smile? Macht nichts ... no way he was going to win either race ... he's just not good enough.

Originally Posted by prudery

As per the gaggle of hyperventilating LITF goo-goos he describes, I have cruised 4-5 different racing forums for a while, and never have seen this horse compared to Dr. Fager, nor have I seen quite the cannonization he describes . But then his posts wouldn't be so dramatic, would they ?

Try searching the archives at horseracingtalk.net for the two weeks before and after last year's BC Sprint.

But be very careful ... the hyperventilation may knock you right out of your chair.

And note that I was making the exact same analysis then that I am now ... nine months later.