Interesting Developments

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by CSC

His last race was not visually impressive, nor was it impressive from a beyer standpoint (96). The call here for a horseplayer if you are considering him for the derby is will he be better on traditional dirt than on syth or turf. He's by Empire Maker not unlike David Caroll's Acoma, she eventually had to prove the same questions by winning on turf, syth, and then dirt. But no one knows absolutely if he will be good enough. Like someone said in this thread alot is said about synth horses going backward on dirt, what about the flip side synth horses improving on dirt?

I don't buy the argument that POTN is an automatic toss because (1) horses generally run well on only one type of surface (dirt vs. Poly vs. sod), (2) POTN has racked up victories on the artificial surfaces, and (3) his SoCal races have been slow. If POTN's SoCal races have not been that fast, doesn't that leave open the possibility that he may be faster on dirt? I Want Revenge barely lost to POTN in two slow Poly races, but trounced his competition when switched to the dirt. Papa Clem barely lost to POTN in a slow Poly race and came back to run second in the La Derby and win the Arkansas Derby. The same argument used against POTN now would have been used with greater measure against I Want Revenge prior to the Gotham and Papa Clem prior to the La Derby.

The stakes horses shipping from Santa Anita off Cushion Track/Pro Ride races did well in dirt starts last spring. Zenyatta won the Apple Blossom, Tiago won the Oaklawn Handicap, Circular Quay won the New Orleans Handicap, Intangaroo won the Humana Distaff, and Giant Gizmo won the Alysheba on the Oaks undercard. Granted, that is a small sample, but those aren't bad results.

[Thunder Gulch]

Bottom line is we just don't know what will happen when a horse goes from a synthetic to a dirt surface. What we do know is that POTN has been the best on the west coast this spring and the horses that left California have fared very well vs those from other parts of the country. Be my guest if you want to ignore him as the 5th choice with a three time Derby winning trainer.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by CSC

His last race was not visually impressive, nor was it impressive from a beyer standpoint (96).

I got curious about the 'slow Beyers' thing and went back to my Davidowitz book where he talks about how to calculate speed figures. As I remembered, the pars have to be based on historical data over the track. But the kicker is, the SA surface is brand-spanking new - first used in October 2008. Mr. D. suggests that you need at least 15 races at a particular level and distance for your pars to be useful (and I, as a mathematical statistician, would prefer 20 or more for the normal approximation to hold). How many G1 races at 9f have been run at SA on Pro-Ride? Four? Five? Not nearly enough to have reliable pars. I don't see how anybody can pretend to have accurate speed figures for Santa Anita stakes races this year (except for the turf, which they haven't dug up lately).

You don't suppose they have been using data from races run on the old dirt track and/or the wildly variable Cushion track mishmash from last year? How lazy and intellectually dishonest that would be.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

You don't suppose they have been using data from races run on the old dirt track and/or the wildly variable Cushion track mishmash from last year? How lazy and intellectually dishonest that would be.

Just a little less so that this last comment.

You've topped yourself here.....and that wasn't easy.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

The stakes horses shipping from Santa Anita off Cushion Track/Pro Ride races did well in dirt starts last spring. Zenyatta won the Apple Blossom, Tiago won the Oaklawn Handicap, Circular Quay won the New Orleans Handicap, Intangaroo won the Humana Distaff, and Giant Gizmo won the Alysheba on the Oaks undercard. Granted, that is a small sample, but those aren't bad results.

In fairness, Circular Quay was never a synthetic horse. He won a Grade 1 and Grade 3 on dirt in his 2-yo season, and a Grade 2 on dirt as a 3 year old.
He never won a race on synthetic or turf.

I know many are buying into the west coast horses for the Derby simply because of the blanket statement that they'll all move way up on dirt, which I completely diasgree with.

In Papa Clem's case, you don't think the trip and the horrific field assembled in the Arkansas Derby had more to do with him winning, rather than moving up on a natural dirt surface? For Oaklawn, after a number of memorable Arkansas Derby's the past 5 years, the last 2 have been ridiculously bad.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

In fairness, Circular Quay was never a synthetic horse. He won a Grade 1 and Grade 3 on dirt in his 2-yo season, and a Grade 2 on dirt as a 3 year old.
He never won a race on synthetic or turf.

I know many are buying into the west coast horses for the Derby simply because of the blanket statement that they'll all move way up on dirt, which I completely diasgree with.

In Papa Clem's case, you don't think the trip and the horrific field assembled in the Arkansas Derby had more to do with him winning, rather than moving up on a natural dirt surface? For Oaklawn, after a number of memorable Arkansas Derby's the past 5 years, the last 2 have been ridiculously bad.

Yeah, Circular Quay was a reach, but I thought I'd throw him in there because I didn't want to list just the Oaklawn and CD winners. I should have added Gayego in the Arkansas Derby.

I'm not going to make a blanket assumption that the SoCal horses are going to move up on dirt first time off Cushion Track/Pro Ride. Nor am I going to summarily dismiss what they accomplished out there just because of the surface. Just another factor to consider. Who knows what Pro Ride does to those horses? Maybe they get more conditioning with less stress to muscles and tendons than if they trained over a conventional dirt surface.

As for Papa Clem, I agree that he benefited at Hot Springs from being in the garden spot in midpack behind OF as well as having to chase down only a horse who was probably injured in the race. It is not to Papa Clem's credit that Summer Bird was making up ground on him at the end.

[dylbert]

This thread has taken many twists and turns...

1) Exotic foods -- alligator is king!

2) Syn only horse will not win Kentucky Derby.

3) Blue Grass top three finishers more likely to finish 18th, 19th and last on May 2 than one-two-three.

4) Terrain is clunk up horse. Is there Super High Pick 5 for Derby? If so, I may wheel him in 5 hole! (Not really, but sounds logical tonight)

5) Friesan Fire is better than many folks believe. Is he Derby winner? Don't know... I saw his Risen Star and Louisiana Derby victories. He handles his competition well and just wins. I am convinced that some horses just don't know how to, or want to, win.

6) Yes (agreeing with BTW) -- Kentucky Derby is not the game. I am still more pleased with $96 Santa Anita maiden winner I had several years ago than any Derby winner (and I had War Emblem and Funny Cide).

7) The discussion will remain lively until they spring the latch in Louisville. Then, two minutes later, we will all know the answer. I will suggest that we will see another Giacomo (or two) before we see another Triple Crown winner.

Laissez les bon temp rouler! And, please make your wagers early to avoid getting shut out at the windows...