5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

My top pick is Papa Clem. Crazy I know.

[alysheba4]

not crazy at all.....i like him, along with i.w.r., p.o.t.n. and f.f. i just need to figure how to bet it.

[nomad]

My daughter is a good capper but not at all into horseracing. She is in law school,so of course,she needs money. I told her to cap the derby & I would send her money. She is oblivoius to any of the info & hype we thrive on. This is what she sent:

Andrea’s 135th Kentucky Derby Picks
v The Bottom Line
Ø Pioneer of the Nile
Ø Papa Clem
Ø Dunkirk (my best long shot)

v Definite Eliminations Based on Lifetime Record and Who Beat Who Analysis
§ Westside Bernie
§ Mr. Hot Stuff
§ Join in the Dance
§ Atomic Rain
§ Summer Bird
§ Nowhere to Hide
§ Flying Private
v Eliminations based on the same but weak performances as opposed to poor performances
§ Hold Me Back
§ Advice
v Somewhere in the Middle all have a real shot based on those same factors
§ Mine that Bird
§ Regal Ransom
§ Chocolate Candy
§ General Quarters
§ I want Revenge
§ Dunkirk
§ Desert Party
§ Musket Man
v Outstanding based on same factors
§ Pioneer the Nile
§ Fresian Fire
§ Papa Clem
v Special Notes About Non-Eliminated Horses
§ Pioneer the Nile looks almost unbeatable he will certainly be in the money absent exigent circumstances
§ Desert Party and Regal Ransom seem fairly evenly matched and have both beaten one another
§ Likewise Musket Man and General Quarters seem fairly evenly matched and have both beaten one another
§ Desert Party seems a bit weaker than the others to me for some reason
v Horses who have made big bucks
§ Regal Ransom (no wonder the name), Pioneer of the Nile, Papa Clem, and I want Revenge…..
§ I was surprised that Dunkirk made so little money.
v Based on the other information, blood, and jockeys my picks are:
§ Top 3
¨ Pioneer of the Nile
§ Sire: Empire Maker (Unbridled)
¨ Papa Clem
§ Sire: Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector)
¨ Dunkirk (my best long shot)
§ Sire: Unbridled Song (Unbridled)
§ Dam: Secret Status (A.P. Indy)
§ Other Possibles
¨ Friesian Fire (was one of my original top three but I feel wishy washy)
§ Sire: A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew)
¨ Regal Ransom (Good long-shot?)
¨ I Want Revenge
§ Sire: Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy)
¨ General Quarters
§ Sire: Sky Mesa (Pulpit)
§ Dam: Ecology (Unbridled Song)
§ Others that cannot be eliminated
¨ Chocolate Candy
§ Dam: Crownett (Seattle Slew)
¨ Musket Man
§ Yonaguska (Cherokee Run)

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

REGAL RANSOM (#10) Garcia / bin Suroor 30-1
When my original pick declared from the race, I decided to go with a speed horse that is bred with stamina and landed on this longshot; upset his better regarded stablemate in the UAE Derby and can repeat that performance at huge odds; hoping he has a clear lead into the stretch and it’s to the windows!

I WANT REVENGE (#13) Talamo / Mullins 3-1
The logical “horse to beat” off his two efforts at Aqueduct after shipping from the west coast; overcame a lot of trouble in his brilliant Wood Memorial victory; has all the makings of a Derby winner….if you like a short price.

HOLD ME BACK (#5) Desormeaux / Mott 15-1
This well bred closer ran good in his last two starts (both on synthetic surfaces); one dirt try wasn’t that good though; at this price, looks better than other synthetic horses who have never raced on the “real” stuff.

FRIESAN FIRE (#6) Saez / Jones 5-1
Swept the Fairgrounds series of three year old races this year; hasn’t raced in seven weeks though, which could be a concern; may get overlooked in the wagering and does move up on a wet track.

MR. HOT STUFF (#3) Velazquez / Harty 30-1
This full brother to last year’s runner; Colonel John has no early foot & will be rallying late; could be a huge price if the race falls apart late; solid longshot play.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

My top pick is Papa Clem. Crazy I know.

I don't think it's crazy, Coach. I think he finishes top three as well. Good racing luck to you.

[Heels1989]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

REGAL RANSOM (#10) Garcia / bin Suroor 30-1
When my original pick declared from the race, I decided to go with a speed horse that is bred with stamina and landed on this longshot; upset his better regarded stablemate in the UAE Derby and can repeat that performance at huge odds; hoping he has a clear lead into the stretch and it’s to the windows!

I WANT REVENGE (#13) Talamo / Mullins 3-1
The logical “horse to beat” off his two efforts at Aqueduct after shipping from the west coast; overcame a lot of trouble in his brilliant Wood Memorial victory; has all the makings of a Derby winner….if you like a short price.

HOLD ME BACK (#5) Desormeaux / Mott 15-1
This well bred closer ran good in his last two starts (both on synthetic surfaces); one dirt try wasn’t that good though; at this price, looks better than other synthetic horses who have never raced on the “real” stuff.

FRIESAN FIRE (#6) Saez / Jones 5-1
Swept the Fairgrounds series of three year old races this year; hasn’t raced in seven weeks though, which could be a concern; may get overlooked in the wagering and does move up on a wet track.

MR. HOT STUFF (#3) Velazquez / Harty 30-1
This full brother to last year’s runner; Colonel John has no early foot & will be rallying late; could be a huge price if the race falls apart late; solid longshot play.

Mark

I am on the same five and plan to add Desest Party and Chocolate Candy in an Exacta Box.

Best of luck to all playing and hope all horses and jocks return safe.

[brockguy]

Just heading to the track now

Desert Party

Dunkirk

Papi Clem

Good luck

[CSC]

11:07 AM
Churchill PK3
Here were my picks from this morning for the pick 3 ending with the derby.

3,7,9 / 3,4,6,9 / 5,6,10,11,15,19

[otisotisotis]

my annual donation to the super pool:

6+12/6+12/3+7+15/3+15+17

[Sightseek]

Did Steve dress Derek Ryan?

[Heels1989]

Originally Posted by Heels1989

Mark

I am on the same five and plan to add Desest Party and Chocolate Candy in an Exacta Box.

Best of luck to all playing and hope all horses and jocks return safe.

Edit: With I Want Revenge out, Pioneer is now on my ticket:

Exacta Box

Mr Hot Stuff
Hold Me Back
Friesan Fire
Regal Ransom
Chocolate Candy
Pioneer of the Nile
Desert Party

[King Glorious]

So I looked at the program information for NBC's coverage. I don't know if it's just my cable system or if this is what all yours would show but this is what mine says:

Thoroughbreds Old Fashioned, Chocolate Candy, Flying Pegasus, and General Quarters are among the top contenders for the crown, currently held by reigning champion Big Brown.

[CSC]

Inside on pace speed, Regal Ransom.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

So I looked at the program information for NBC's coverage. I don't know if it's just my cable system or if this is what all yours would show but this is what mine says:

Thoroughbreds Old Fashioned, Chocolate Candy, Flying Pegasus, and General Quarters are among the top contenders for the crown, currently held by reigning champion Big Brown.

its yours

comcast says "key prep winners potn,, ff, iwr, ( with 19 y.o. jockey joe talamo ) head a 20 horse field. tp has 3 entries'



p.s...KG, you asked earlier about p3 scratches in the oaks/wr/derby pick 3...twin spires says consos on IWR

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by robfla

its yours

comcast says "key prep winners potn,, ff, iwr, ( with 19 y.o. jockey joe talamo ) head a 20 horse field. tp has 3 entries'



p.s...KG, you asked earlier about p3 scratches in the oaks/wr/derby pick 3...twin spires says consos on IWR

Wasn't me. I don't play p3s

[Sightseek]

Oh My God!!!!!

[letswastemoney]

Wtfff!??!!?!??!?!?!

[Danzig]

mine that bird?! lol


wow.
what a mess of a race.

calvin wins them both, holy sh!t.

[tjfla]

WHO??

I hear Musket man then here WHO???

[letswastemoney]

Mine that Bird never cracked 90 on the beyer scale right??? is this the same horse?!?!