6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

So now....not only does a horse have to have run in the Kentucky Derby for it to make sense to enter the horse in the Belmont, but it also needs to have run "early during his 2yo year."

No. You just keep setting up straw men to knock down. You said Alternation wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning because they had an equal number of starts. I simply countered that the latter started his racing career months before Alternation.

I certainly didn't claim some sort of magical calendar date after which a horse became ineligible to win the Belmont Stakes.

Your argument makes less sense to me the more you make it.

That's because you're trying to make hard and fast rules based on specifics I note about Alternation's career. The point was that Alternation is slightly behind the current top 3yos, so bypassing the Belmont is hardly a shocking development.

The horse just won a G2 race and defeated another decent Graded stakes winner in the process. You act like a horse needs to run in a certain number of races or a certain number of graded stakes races to have a shot in a big G1 race. That's just absolutely not the case in the game today.

Well, you yourself said that Alternation was unlikely to win the Belmont Stakes. What are some of the reasons that formed that opinion?

The connections have apparently made their decision for whatever reason. It seems odd to me, but oh well. Perhaps they agree with you that it would be foolish to enter a horse in a big G1 race in June of his 3yo year because he didn't break his maiden until December of his 2yo year. If so, I think that's a pretty crappy reason.

If it seems odd its because this is nothing but more straw man arguments.

Maybe the Wizard of Oz or Elton John can help you out. Just follow the yellow brick road.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The point was that Alternation is slightly behind the current top 3yos, so bypassing the Belmont is hardly a shocking development.

It's a moot point because he is, but I do find it borderline shocking when a horse wins the Peter Pan and is not going to the Belmont in a year where all horses are lightly raced and relatively even on ability.

I would even say, barring injury, 9.5 times out of ten with any random horse/trainer/owner, the horse is in the gate in two Saturdays.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

It's a moot point because he is, but I do find it borderline shocking when a horse wins the Peter Pan and is not going to the Belmont in a year where all horses are lightly raced and relatively even on ability.

I would even say, barring injury, 9.5 times out of ten with any random horse/trainer/owner, the horse is in the gate in two Saturdays.

It happens fairly often, actually. 8 of the past 23 Peter Pan winners have skipped the Belmont: Sightseeing, Oratory, Hero's Tribute, Banker's Gold, Twining, Seeking The Gold, Profit Key, and Go Rockin Robin.

9 if you count late scratch Casino Drive.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It happens fairly often, actually. 8 of the past 23 Peter Pan winners have skipped the Belmont: Sightseeing, Oratory, Hero's Tribute, Banker's Gold, Twining, Seeking The Gold, Profit Key, and Go Rockin Robin.

9 if you count late scratch Casino Drive.

[NTamm1215]

Is Alternation any more unprepared for a race like the Belmont than Animal Kingdom was for the Derby? I understand the argument but in the current game horses are not taken along through their development incrementally, that's led to the deterioration of allowance races at many of the major circuits in the country.

Would Alternation go into the Belmont giving some of his rivals a seasoning edge? Sure, but that, to me, is not enough of a reason to skip the race.

The Dwyer 1-2 finishers were 2nd and 1st in the Belmont last year and that was a Belmont that featured 0 horses who had run in all 3 legs of the TC. This year two of the main candidates will be making their 3rd start in 5 weeks. There's something to be said for having a fresh horse in that type of situation.

Its just tough for me to swallow connections opting against a classic race where they probably would have been the 4th choice.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Is Alternation any more unprepared for a race like the Belmont than Animal Kingdom was for the Derby? I understand the argument but in the current game horses are not taken along through their development incrementally, that's led to the deterioration of allowance races at many of the major circuits in the country.

I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

Of course, you could counter that Drosselmeyer, like Alternation, a son of Distorted Humor, tackled the same obstacle successfully last year. But then again, neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont last year.

With regards to progressive development, Alternation, contrary to what I've been saying, has gone through his available conditions (first and second level allowance wins). However, in my opinion, he's stalled at the stakes level, with a modest Arkansas Derby try and a less than emphatic win in the Peter Pan. He seems to have "upside" but at a slow incline.

The Dwyer 1-2 finishers were 2nd and 1st in the Belmont last year and that was a Belmont that featured 0 horses who had run in all 3 legs of the TC. This year two of the main candidates will be making their 3rd start in 5 weeks. There's something to be said for having a fresh horse in that type of situation.

I see it the other way. I think it's an advantage to have started in the other classics. Certainly "fresh" horses can win once in a while, but if you look at the names (ie D'Tara, Sarava) you're more apt to write those years off.

Despite their flaws, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford both ran well in the Derby and Preakness, and each had a strong prep race prior to the Triple Crown. Though its a weak crop, I don't think the Belmont Stakes is the free-for-all that some are anticipating. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford might be separating themselves from the rest (Nehro a possible add-on) at this point.

Its just tough for me to swallow connections opting against a classic race where they probably would have been the 4th choice.

In the face of more dramatic hold-outs like Bernardini, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Red Bullet, and Fusaichi Pegasus, I don't think this one is that big a deal.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

No. You just keep setting up straw men to knock down. You said Alternation wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning because they had an equal number of starts.

You accuse me of setting up straw men...and then you wildly misstate what I said. Go back and read my post again on the topic of Animal Kingdom and Alternation's seasoning. I certainly didn't say that Alternation "wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning."
But I assume you already knew that.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

True, but it isn't like he would be going from 9f to 12f to face off against a bunch of 12f specialists. So....while the race would be an increase of 3f over his previous longest, every other horse in the field will be facing at least a 2f increase off his previous longest.
So again, that seems like a lousy reason to skip the race.

And I'm not trying to say you are making hard and fast rules. I'm just saying that all of the reasons you have presented - even if taken together - don't add up to a hill of beans in my opinion:
He's never ran past 9f before.
He didn't break his maiden until December.
He doesn't have a lot of graded stakes experience.
He didn't run in the Kentucky Derby.
Most Peter Pan winners that run in the Belmont Stakes don't win.

None of those strike me as particularly compelling reason to skip the race.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.

Of course, you could counter that Drosselmeyer, like Alternation, a son of Distorted Humor, tackled the same obstacle successfully last year. But then again, neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont last year.

With regards to progressive development, Alternation, contrary to what I've been saying, has gone through his available conditions (first and second level allowance wins). However, in my opinion, he's stalled at the stakes level, with a modest Arkansas Derby try and a less than emphatic win in the Peter Pan. He seems to have "upside" but at a slow incline.



I see it the other way. I think it's an advantage to have started in the other classics. Certainly "fresh" horses can win once in a while, but if you look at the names (ie D'Tara, Sarava) you're more apt to write those years off.

Despite their flaws, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford both ran well in the Derby and Preakness, and each had a strong prep race prior to the Triple Crown. Though its a weak crop, I don't think the Belmont Stakes is the free-for-all that some are anticipating. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford might be separating themselves from the rest (Nehro a possible add-on) at this point.



In the face of more dramatic hold-outs like Bernardini, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Red Bullet, and Fusaichi Pegasus, I don't think this one is that big a deal.

Alternation is no more or less qualified for the Belmont at this point in time than Fly Down was a year ago. His trainer went on At the Races last December and talked about how he thought he was a Classic type of horse. Now, perhaps he feels at this point that he's a bit behind or lacks the seasoning.

I understand the argument you're making and the fact that many more high profile horses have been held out of the Belmont. I think the difference was that they were all horses who were going to be well-backed whereas Alternation figured to be a viable mid-range type of longshot, sort of an "interesting" horse in the race.

As far as the distance question, they're all going to tackle an obstacle the likes of which haven't been seen thus far by a 3YO. Should a horse who is by a multiple classic producing sire out of a dam who won 3 times at 11 furlongs be considered likely to have trouble with 12 furlongs? I'd think not.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

You accuse me of setting up straw men...and then you wildly misstate what I said. Go back and read my post again on the topic of Animal Kingdom and Alternation's seasoning. I certainly didn't say that Alternation "wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning."
But I assume you already knew that.

Wow, you're clutching at straws here with this post.

I presume to set up more straw men.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I understand the argument you're making and the fact that many more high profile horses have been held out of the Belmont. I think the difference was that they were all horses who were going to be well-backed whereas Alternation figured to be a viable mid-range type of longshot, sort of an "interesting" horse in the race.

As far as this goes, you could also say he's a "borderline" horse, which to me means he fits in all those lesser races (Ohio Derby, Pegasus, Dwyer) surrounding the Belmont Stakes just as easily as the main event. Thus the indifference to his absence.

He's interesting, but basically only for those taking a shot in the dark, hoping he's progressed in an unquantifiable/unobserved fashion beyond his paper form. Had he earned a triple digit Beyer in the Peter Pan, or won the race by open lengths, I'd probably sing a different tune.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Wow, you're clutching at straws here with this post.

I presume to set up more straw men.

[TouchOfGrey]

Dominguez gets mount on Mucho Macho Man

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by TouchOfGrey

Dominguez gets mount on Mucho Macho Man

I thought he needed another blacksmith.

[alysheba4]

he is going "zola budd "

[dpkovalesky]

any word on undercard starter probables?

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

any word on undercard starter probables?

Only ones I have heard are

Woody Stephens
JJ's Lucky Train
Coil
Little Drama
Razmataz
Vengeful Wildcat
Justin Phillip

True North
Trappe Shot
Calibrachoa/Rabbit-Have You Ever
Ventana
Smiling Tiger
Irrefutable

Manhattan
Gio Ponti
Al Khali
Get Stormy
Court Vision
Viscount Nelson

[NTamm1215]

It was nothing more than a formality but Shackleford is a go after his workout this morning.

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stak...turday-workout

[King Glorious]

My first prediction is that Shackleford loses by over 30 lengths here.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

My first prediction is that Shackleford loses by over 30 lengths here.

With all due respect.....who cares?