dear bernardini fans....

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Bid

CHD is Churchill downs. Blackthroat, there is no doubt in my mind the numbers are off, and have been off there on a regular basis.

Never thought that CD's beyers were out of whack. Now Delaware Park on the other hand...

[The Bid]

Theyve been pretty bad lately Cannon

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Never thought that CD's beyers were out of whack. Now Delaware Park on the other hand...

I think there are other forces at work making those Delaware numbers unreliable.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Enjoy homie.. By the way, did Mauralakana cross the finish line yet?

just for the sake of it, I liked Mauralakana -- so that should clear that all up so that nobody else gets accused of backing her.

Did it turn out the way I hoped? No. Did I say she was a lock? No. I just said she looked like a legit price with a chance to me. Wouldn't be the first time that someone liked a 15-1 horse and it didn't run well.

Like Henny Hughes. Oh wait, sorry, he was 8-5.

I would never feel bad about backing a horse like Mauralakana at those odds, so the comments about her are really unwarranted (though they may have been directed more to the poster you're arguing with than they are to Mauralakana in all actuality). I'll always rather watch my 15-1 shot run up the track than go down in flames with an unwarranted 8-5 favorite.

No shame here man, at least I put myself out there.

[todko]

In the 30 or so years of being involved with thoroughbred racing I can't honestly recall a horse more over-hyped than Bernardini. That wasn't even a strong BC Classic field. He beat nobody in his previous starts (if you throw out the injured Barbaro, Sunriver, and Bluegrass Cat). His times were unremarkable (and so was Invasor's).

He had the Beyer hype machine behind him full bore. JC didn't move too early. He moved in the same place where Prado moved on Barbaro. Bernardini just couldn't hack it. And he had to get after Bernardini in the backstretch because Bernardini wasn't getting :48s and nearly 1:13s like he had in some of his other races. Bernardini was a fraud pure and simple.

The Travers is a weak race and has been for some time. So is the JCGC. So is the Jim Dandy. Grades don't mean a damn thing. I can name dozens of Grade I winners who could barely get 1:36 for a mile.

Jazil could beat him. And so could a healthy Bluegrass Cat. Invasor had a tough trip and ran by him under wraps. Invasor couldn't even get 2:01 flat. And that track was far from slow that day. Beyer had to hype some more figures to justify Bernardini's earlier hype figures.

Ghostzapper would have been so far gone it wouldn't have even been funny. So would St. Liam. Barbaro too.

If you buy Beyer speed figs and commentary by people like Jon White then you deserved to lose your money on BC day.

Originally Posted by todko

In the 30 or so years of being involved with thoroughbred racing I can't honestly recall a horse more over-hyped than Bernardini. That wasn't even a strong BC Classic field. He beat nobody in his previous starts (if you throw out the injured Barbaro, Sunriver, and Bluegrass Cat). His times were unremarkable (and so was Invasor's).

He had the Beyer hype machine behind him full bore. JC didn't move too early. He moved in the same place where Prado moved on Barbaro. Bernardini just couldn't hack it. And he had to get after Bernardini in the backstretch because Bernardini wasn't getting :48s and nearly 1:13s like he had in some of his other races. Bernardini was a fraud pure and simple.

The Travers is a weak race and has been for some time. So is the JCGC. So is the Jim Dandy. Grades don't mean a damn thing. I can name dozens of Grade I winners who could barely get 1:36 for a mile.

Jazil could beat him. And so could a healthy Bluegrass Cat. Invasor had a tough trip and ran by him under wraps. Invasor couldn't even get 2:01 flat. And that track was far from slow that day. Beyer had to hype some more figures to justify Bernardini's earlier hype figures.

Ghostzapper would have been so far gone it wouldn't have even been funny. So would St. Liam. Barbaro too.

If you buy Beyer speed figs and commentary by people like Jon White then you deserved to lose your money on BC day.

Okay, while all else are holding their breath, I'll be the first to say it.....

THIS ANALYSIS IS HORENDOUS!...Sorry man...I had to call you out for this post....Not to insult, but I had to pick myself off the ground after laughing to post this....

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Okay, while all else are holding their breath, I'll be the first to say it.....

THIS ANALYSIS IS HORENDOUS!...Sorry man...I had to call you out for this post....Not to insult, but I had to pick myself off the ground after laughing to post this....

As did I... FUNNIEST POST ALL DAY LONG!!!

[todko]

Originally Posted by The Bid

It depends who you ask. My guys come up with 108 and they are the best in the business. Andy Beyers guys come up with 116, which I think is high. If the 116 is right, its Invasors highest number ever...... off 90 days. Not impossible, but I wouldnt think it probable. To me the 108 is more realistic.

Speed figures are a complete waste of time. I could tape over the speed figures on my pps (I don't look at them anyway), bet on raw running times and be more successful than these speed figure nimrods.

You can't quantify track variants just because a maiden $25K race runs 2/5ths slower than par and then say that a stakes horse that runs 2/5ths faster than par deserves a higher speed figure because "the track was slow that day". It might have just been a bad bunch of maiden $25k horses.

On days like the BC day there is no way to judge track variant because most of the races are stakes races anyway. And you can't judge this year's races against pars from last year or even the last 10 years.

Without an accurate track variant you can't produce a speed figure. Speed figures are worthless. They always have been.

Beyer got rich off this crap. Notice how he came up with speed figs for poly at TP yet there were no pars to begin with. Think that's a flawed methodology? You bet it is. And people dumb enough to take his (or anyone else's speed figures) seriously lost their shirts betting on the poly.

Around March 15th TP scraped 3 inches off the poly to speed up the track and reduce the kickback. You think Beyer even knew about that?

Try it some time. Place a piece of tape over the speed figure column and handicap. You'll see what I mean.

If people like Beyer and some of the others worked in the financial services industry they would be in jail for fraud.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's typical internet nonsense. You always see way too much on both ends of the extreme. He's great....no. He sucks....no.

Now don't be knocking my pal Dixie anymore. He's the glue holding this place together.

Luckily for all of us we have Latent Heat to look forward to in 2007.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

Excellent post and right on the money..............

Thank God a voice of reason has shown up.

Lemme guess, just finished up having drinks with Bea Arthur?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Actually I heard Betty White and JJ Walker were there as well. Wow, a real life celebrity on the board.

Sue Ann Nivens and Kid Dyn-O-Mite??????

I love them!

I'm heading out to Beverly Hills....stay tuned.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Tell Bobby I said hi!!

Will do.

Gotta run. The copter is picking me up on the roof and I'm heading out.

Beverly Hills here I come!

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by todko

Jazil could beat him.

my god man! a statement like this has put me in the very uncomfortable situation of......(i can't believe i am doing this)........defending bernardini. as people on this board know I really don't like bernardini. i started this thread, and bcc 2006 is now my favorite race ever because the sight of invasor blowing by him as he labored home was delightful. the hype for this horse was out of control.
but that being said......JAZIL!!!!!! ummmmm no.
i guess maybe i should give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were being sarcastic or something. i love bernbashing more than anyone.....but that is just crazy.

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cardus

And the track did slow down considerably after the sprint. -- DAHoss9698

How do people know that the track slows or quickens during a day, minus a recognizable, tangible weather change, like rain or wind increase/decrease? This is what gets me about "split variants."

Why was the track at Churchill Downs slower after the Sprint? What atmospheric condition changed the composition of the dirt? What man-made change was observed that changed the distribution of the track surface?

There were two races run on dirt after the Sprint, neither of which resulted in a superficially fast time. Is it possible -- and given that most people considered Round Pond a fluky winner it is not unreasonable to suspect -- that the performances were sub-par?

While we can debate a lot of what Todko wrote -- or ridicule, based upon follow-up posts --I think that variant/speed figure portions of his post invite debate.

Thanks Cardus. It seems that the people who lost money on Bernardini have nothing left but resorting to insults. I called it beforehand. They bought the hype while I bought the winning ticket.

That nearly instantaneous slowdown in a track's surface is merely an excuse used often by poor handicappers. If the track moved in any way it should have been faster later in the day. Churchill did have rain that week.

You can't base a dependent variable (speed figure) on an iffy independent variable (track variant). To put it simply, horses are not quantifiable. If they were, we'd know in advance which horse was going to win. Not even the best supercomputer crunching the best numbers (throw Trakus in there too) will ever be able to predict which horse will win with much more than 30% accuracy.

If you bet the speed figures you are a fool. Bernardini is proof positive.

[todko]

Jazil versus Bernardini. That's one event that really would cause me to consider a home equity loan. Yeah, I'd throw the house in on Jazil. Particularly if it was 10f or above. Here's another one. Birdstone versus Bernardini. I'd throw my mom's house in on that one too. On Birdstone.

And I'd be laughing all the way to the bank . . . kinda like I did on November 4th.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by todko

Jazil versus Bernardini. That's one event that really would cause me to consider a home equity loan. Yeah, I'd throw the house in on Jazil. Particularly if it was 10f or above. Here's another one. Birdstone versus Bernardini. I'd throw my mom's house in on that one too. On Birdstone.

And I'd be laughing all the way to the bank . . . kinda like I did on November 4th.

I'm sure you were laughing all the way to the bank... you act like the horse is some kind of rat. He finished 2nd to a very nice horse. Your post last night had me laughing my ass off... thanks. Jazil and Birdstone? Give me a break!

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'm sure you were laughing all the way to the bank... you act like the horse is some kind of rat. He finished 2nd to a very nice horse. Your post last night had me laughing my ass off... thanks. Jazil and Birdstone? Give me a break!

Hey, Birdstone got 2:27 in the Belmont while chasing fast mid-race fractions. Jazil ran the Churchill 10f at close to Bernardini's time in the Classic while coming through traffic from dead last in the Derby. And also 6 months earlier.

I'm very serious. I'd take either of them versus the "wonderhorse" Bernardini.

Invasor is decent. After all, he did break 2:02 for 10f. Stunning. Triple Crown winner too. Uruguay.

[ateamstupid]

You can actually smell and taste this dude's hatred. It's unbelievable.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You can actually smell and taste this dude's hatred. It's unbelievable.

I just don't get it. It's a horse he hates!

[ArlJim78]

I don't hate any horses. I just want to request that in the future we use the term Bernardinians instead of Bernardini fans. I think it sounds cool.