Derby Trail Probables/Possibles

[Kasept]

FROM TRAVIS STONE

[Kasept]

[RolloTomasi]

I wouldn't necessarily categorize Get Her Number as a closer. The horse has good tactical speed that hasn't been displayed in his 2 outings this year.

Javier Castellano kept a strong hold on the horse who was eager during the first half mile of the Rebel (which was off a 5-month layoff) and shuffled him back between horses down the backstretch. Started climbing a bit when taking kickback to the far turn. Got clobbered in the stretch.

In the Arkansas Derby he again found himself between horses early, got pinballed a bit heading into the first turn, then ended up ducking out sharply off heels entering the back stretch losing 2-3 lengths in the process.

Of course, if he can't handle being in and among traffic in 7-horse fields, none of the above should make one particularly optimistic in a 20-horse melee.

[RolloTomasi]

While based on strict running lines you can categorize Soup and Sandwich and Midnight Bourbon as "pressers/stalkers", neither horse has displayed the ability to willingly settle early and finish in a two turn race.

Soup and Sandwich's second start was a public workout between races. It was a 3-horse field and he was snatched up early going into the first turn. Made a decisive move on the far turn but never drew away and was all over the place in the stretch. In the Florida Derby with a big field and a loud crowd he broke like a shot and dueled with a Mott horse before pulling himself to the lead (mouth open, jock's feet on the dash board). Swept up entering the stretch by the winner and stayed on the wrong lead.

Midnight Bourbon set the pace or dueled in all 3 Louisiana races and basically stayed one-paced throughout. Those races were relatively slow early, too. He's a frontrunner, but he's also a slow frontrunner. A decidedly non-frontrunning CA colt shipped into the LA Derby (Hot Rod Charlie) and ended up setting the pace (with MB lapped right on him). In his 2yo races when outfooted early, he runs even worse, giving way in the stretch (Iroquois, Champagne).

Rock Your World hasn't settled early either. He was part of a 3-horse duel in his sprint debut. In the Pasadena Stakes, Commander Khai (who broke his maiden on the lead going 5f) ran off for the first 3/4s. Rock Your World sat in second but was not restrained by the rider, just looked like he couldn't keep up with the run-off. He had to come under a ride to reel him in. Despite his speed, Rock Your World has shown the ability to finish as he's had another gear in the final furlong in both his last two starts, which makes him more attractive than the other 2 if you like him. But if he does not go to the lead, there is no telling how he will react if restrained early or how he will handle kickback for several furlongs for the first time.

[cakes44]

Caddo River:

[moses]

It would be a real shame if Get Her Number is in the Derby and King Fury is kept out.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

It would be a real shame if Get Her Number is in the Derby and King Fury is kept out.

Why

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Why

How else is King Fury going to get a prep in for the Epsom Derby?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

How else is King Fury going to get a prep in for the Epsom Derby?

Good point

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Why

I like having McPeek in a big stakes race as opposed to Miller. But I think he’d be an interesting horse to use underneath if there is the expected hot pace and a wet track.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

How else is King Fury going to get a prep in for the Epsom Derby?

I just read your post about Get Her Number. Maybe I shouldn't have highlighted that horse specifically. He is probably a little better than I gave him credit for.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

I just read your post about Get Her Number. Maybe I shouldn't have highlighted that horse specifically. He is probably a little better than I gave him credit for.

You can argue for either horse really, but at the end of the day both horses are being bumrushed into the race.

Last year, McPeek foolishly wheeled King Fury back off 12 days rest in the BC Juvenile after a decent score in a listed stakes (which was on the heels of a disastrous performance in the Breeder's Futurity). Then he ran back in the race he should have pointed toward all along and got his head ripped off there, too, in what proved to be a thoroughly weak race. Now after a layoff and decent score in a minor event he wants to waltz right into the Derby. He just throws stuff against the wall and once in a while it sticks...

As for Miller, he claims he's vaccinated against Derby fever and yet he had the horse on a ridiculously intense work pattern to make the Rebel Stakes (never mind the cross-country shipping involved). Got roughed up there, but didn't leave him at Oaklawn (even though he has a barn there), shipped back for the Arkansas Derby and got roughed up again, and now he'll have criss-crossed back and forth between CA-AR-KY 5 times in the past 6 weeks or so.

Both horses should await the Peter Pan if they want to progress and see out the year.

[Kasept]

HOZIER back as AE, pushing KING FURY further down list based on stakes earnings.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You can argue for either horse really, but at the end of the day both horses are being bumrushed into the race.

Last year, McPeek foolishly wheeled King Fury back off 12 days rest in the BC Juvenile after a decent score in a listed stakes (which was on the heels of a disastrous performance in the Breeder's Futurity). Then he ran back in the race he should have pointed toward all along and got his head ripped off there, too, in what proved to be a thoroughly weak race. Now after a layoff and decent score in a minor event he wants to waltz right into the Derby. He just throws stuff against the wall and once in a while it sticks...

As for Miller, he claims he's vaccinated against Derby fever and yet he had the horse on a ridiculously intense work pattern to make the Rebel Stakes (never mind the cross-country shipping involved). Got roughed up there, but didn't leave him at Oaklawn (even though he has a barn there), shipped back for the Arkansas Derby and got roughed up again, and now he'll have criss-crossed back and forth between CA-AR-KY 5 times in the past 6 weeks or so.

Both horses should await the Peter Pan if they want to progress and see out the year.

Well said. Still, there are just two potential Derby horses that have shown they can run well in slop: King Fury and Essential Quality. If the track came up wet on May 1, I'd have to give King Fury a lot of consideration.

[hondo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

While based on strict running lines you can categorize Soup and Sandwich and Midnight Bourbon as "pressers/stalkers", neither horse has displayed the ability to willingly settle early and finish in a two turn race.

Soup and Sandwich's second start was a public workout between races. It was a 3-horse field and he was snatched up early going into the first turn. Made a decisive move on the far turn but never drew away and was all over the place in the stretch. In the Florida Derby with a big field and a loud crowd he broke like a shot and dueled with a Mott horse before pulling himself to the lead (mouth open, jock's feet on the dash board). Swept up entering the stretch by the winner and stayed on the wrong lead.

Midnight Bourbon set the pace or dueled in all 3 Louisiana races and basically stayed one-paced throughout. Those races were relatively slow early, too. He's a frontrunner, but he's also a slow frontrunner. A decidedly non-frontrunning CA colt shipped into the LA Derby (Hot Rod Charlie) and ended up setting the pace (with MB lapped right on him). In his 2yo races when outfooted early, he runs even worse, giving way in the stretch (Iroquois, Champagne).

Rock Your World hasn't settled early either. He was part of a 3-horse duel in his sprint debut. In the Pasadena Stakes, Commander Khai (who broke his maiden on the lead going 5f) ran off for the first 3/4s. Rock Your World sat in second but was not restrained by the rider, just looked like he couldn't keep up with the run-off. He had to come under a ride to reel him in. Despite his speed, Rock Your World has shown the ability to finish as he's had another gear in the final furlong in both his last two starts, which makes him more attractive than the other 2 if you like him. But if he does not go to the lead, there is no telling how he will react if restrained early or how he will handle kickback for several furlongs for the first time.

Agree to see all three of these horses as borderline speed and think Midnight Bourbon really wants the lead to be most effective when you look at his longer races. As indicated, of the 3 Rock Your World has the better ability to finish. Just my opinion but with Caddo River now in the mix I see some contention on the front end.

[Stickhorse]

Steve,

As always your coverage of the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby is excellent. On Tuesday's show you had an excellent interview with Richard Migliore. In the course of your conversation you mentioned a kentuckyderby.com page where we could watch workouts. Could you please repeat the entire web address? I was on the road and could not make a note of of it.

Thanks and keep up the great work!

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Stickhorse

Steve,

As always your coverage of the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby is excellent. On Tuesday's show you had an excellent interview with Richard Migliore. In the course of your conversation you mentioned a kentuckyderby.com page where we could watch workouts. Could you please repeat the entire web address? I was on the road and could not make a note of of it.

Thanks and keep up the great work!

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/video-center

[Stickhorse]

Thanks Cakes!

[moses]

Does anyone have the numbers on a horse going 8+ weeks without a race and running in the Derby? I know the numbers aren’t good wondering just how bad they are.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Does anyone have the numbers on a horse going 8+ weeks without a race and running in the Derby? I know the numbers aren’t good wondering just how bad they are.

Hypothetical question. If 5 horses qualified for that last year and one won would you say 1 for 5 or 1 for 1? Most times people look at stats like this it would be 1 for 5 so it always appears way worse than it is.