Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not actually sold on Tector's point that a horse can't win the Derby coming from Dubai ... I just would have liked to have seen this horse been a little better at age two.

Who trained DP at two dude?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

Actually, it's a great reason to dislike them. Wintering in Dubai has got to be the dumbest way of bringing up a horse for the derby short of running at Santa Anita during the Winter.

That's not to say it's not possible for them to win, but their chances would have been helped tremendously had they stayed in the USA. This seems so self evident that I'm sure even both you and King Glorious would have trouble poking holes in this.

[CSC]

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

Suddenly this horse becomes an interest in the derby because of what he may or may not do.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Suddenly this horse becomes an interest in the derby because of what he may or may not do.

Any horse who could have an impact on the pace of a horse race should be of interest.

He's not going to make them go 21 4/5's but he's not going to allow RR to sneak away and go 49 4/5's either.

Add to this equation the two-furlong straight run to the turn, the 150k screaming fans and it makes it interesting.

[Travis Stone]

Forgot my eye rolll...

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

yea he's run sub 22 quarters and sub 45 halves

a real speed horse like Z Day blew him away, he might be too cheap to set the pace if someone better actually wants to use horse to get it,

but Join In the Dance has been consistent as far as being a fairly quick starter from the gate as opposed to the type who breaks habitually slow and has to be rushed up with urging.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Forgot my eye rolll...

If he is a sacrificial lamb, I got a few questions for the owner...why enter? If he is legitimately trying to win the race I don't see him impacting the race all that much, and yes the reason I am asking is because Regal Ransom is rising on my list.

[tjfla]

Isn't Join in the Dance a Pletcher horse like Dunkirk??? He gets out fast and Dunkirk is a CLOSER.

Honestly fits well. Join in the Dance gets out fast and Dunkirk picks up the pieces

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Actually, it's a great reason to dislike them. Wintering in Dubai has got to be the dumbest way of bringing up a horse for the derby short of running at Santa Anita during the Winter.

That's not to say it's not possible for them to win, but their chances would have been helped tremendously had they stayed in the USA. This seems so self evident that I'm sure even both you and King Glorious would have trouble poking holes in this.

I hope you do well in the Derby tossing them out.

However, like I said, tossing them out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai in my opinion is foolish. If you want to use Godolphin's 0-5 record in the Derby as your background, go right ahead, and think hard about the respective chances of those five horses who failed.

Sure, their chances would be better if they spent the winter in the USA but it's the owners' decision, and that's that. If you think it's a bad tactic, fine...I don't think it's a good one either. But know that they've gone about preparing Desert Party and Regal Ransom in a way that they did not try in 1999-2002 when their other five horses started.

NT

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

If he is a sacrificial lamb, I got a few questions for the owner...why enter? If he is legitimately trying to win the race I don't see him impacting the race all that much, and yes the reason I am asking is because Regal Ransom is rising on my list.

So you're discounting JITD's early speed just because you like Regal Ransom?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

So you're discounting JITD's early speed just because you like Regal Ransom?

My projection in this derby is if they have the usual track set up for derby day, if Regal Ransom runs a 23 and change 1st 1/4 and a 47 and change half, he will be very tough to run down. Obcourse if you have someone pushing him through a 22 and 46 splits his chances will be far lesser in winning this derby. I think a 23 - 47 - 1:11 puts him right there. Once again I wasn't high on him until I really started to view his races from Dubai, and the DWC day race though not hurt by the speed bias was legitimate in the nature it was run in my opinion.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Once again I wasn't high on him until I really started to view his races from Dubai, and the DWC day race though not hurt by the speed bias was legitimate in the nature it was run in my opinion.

If there wasn't a bias, does Desert Party run him down?

[Bobby Fischer]

yes

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

If there wasn't a bias, does Desert Party run him down?

I know where this is leading, the easy answer is yes. I may have thought that also if I didn't do my homework. Now I am not sure, I like to think maybe RR didn't let him go by that night. They were 15 clear of the 3rd place finisher so both were not stopping. Suroor said DP was quiet the night before the race, I don't know it's getting a little overanalytical for that type of minutia...I'll back up a few bets ofcourse. Then again maybe these 2 are typical Godolphin's misses. All I know is derby myths are not as written in stone as they once were.

[Travis Stone]

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

what if its's muddy , will that help him on the front ende- ala go for gin?

[tjfla]

Regal Ransom
Atomic Rain
Join in the Dance

looks like there will be some early speed and some closers will be picking up the pieces

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think Regal Ransom is a useful horse, and there is a very small chance he pulls a War Emblem, but ultimately, unless the track is biased, he'll have to fend-off way too many challengers in my opinion to hang around and win.

From a discussion standpoint, is it your belief his race on DWC day was solely speed bias aided?

Also where do you place Desert Party?